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birb_cromble  3d ago (text post)   506 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread - 2027-07-04

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

Ground Rules

  • Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
  • Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
  • Be kind. Remember that everyone here comes from different circumstances. We all have different resources available and different risk tolerances.
  • Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Better is better. Celebrate people when they take a step up and work to move their finances in the right direction. Don't flame out because they haven't followed what you consider the optimal path. Everybody has to start somewhere.
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Is making consistent money on Kalshi/polymarket plausible for mottizens? I'm up about 40% on Kalshi/polymarket after 9 worldcup games and I want to know if I can make this a decent side hustle or if I'm going to lose all my money and be made fun of for thinking I could gamble in income. After worldcup will it work on other sports? What about crypto?

In any market, consistent excess returns are the product of superior information, superior analysis, or both. So whatever you’re betting on, do you earnestly believe you have either?

I think probably I have near the maximum amount of information since insider trading is implausible unless the game is rigged, and I have superior than median analysis since I am more intelligent than most people trading the market.

Please pursue responsible gambling tools available to you prior to wrecking yourself.

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This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

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Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


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