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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   383 thread views

Transnational Thursday for July 30, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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The existence of Spain’s small African enclaves is usually the sort of fact that shows up in a trivia contest, but two of them—Ceuta and Melilla—have been in the news this week. Earlier this month, the Supreme Court of Spain ruled (1) (2) that Spain’s immigration law, which allows border security to turn away illegal immigrants who climb over the border fences between Morocco and those two enclaves, doesn’t allow the state to immediately turn away illegal immigrants who cross the border via the water. This has naturally led to a massive increase in illegal crossings, with hundreds of Moroccans, Algerians, and other North Africans swarming the border over the last few weeks. Earlier today, the border “totally collapsed” as thousands more migrants—mostly young men—began dismantling and passing through the border fences. The local authorities asked the national government to declare a state of emergency, which they declined to do, instead opting to send 60 additional soldiers to secure the border. Despite the pretty obvious link between the Supreme Court decision and the sudden increase in illegal crossings, Spanish authorities have declared themselves mystified as to the cause of the crisis.

In additional international impacts, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni has threatened to suspend Italy’s open-border agreement with Spain “to defend our borders and ensure the safety of our citizens,” and the White House has publicly criticized Spain’s handling of the issue.

It's clear that the Spanish government is not inclined to do anything about it. But I wonder - what is the plan on the invaders' side? I mean ok, they took over Ceuta, then what? Are they going to settle there? I don't think local economy is able to accommodate doubling the population - so what's next? Emergency budget grants from Spain to put them all on state welfare rolls? Resettling them in Spain mainland? Just doing nothing and having them take care of getting to the mainland by whatever means they find, or not? Just pressuring Spaniards into leaving and taking over, with Morocco declaring they must extend their sovereignty there for humanitarian reasons? I'm not sure, what's the endgame here?

ok, they took over Ceuta, then what? Are they going to settle there? I don't think local economy is able to accommodate doubling the population - so what's next?

Literally just take a ferry to the mainland?

Ferrying 60 thousand people would take a while I imagine? Do they have any checkpoints at the entrance/exit? Do they even have money to pay for the tickets, or ferry company is going to transit them for free?

Also, doesn't seem to be happening: https://cadenaser.com/andalucia/2026/07/31/la-crisis-migratoria-de-ceuta-no-afecta-a-la-linea-maritima-con-algeciras-radio-algeciras/ (they could be lying of course but I think somebody would notice tens of thousands of people suddenly showing up in Algeciras?)

Ferrying 60 thousand people would take a while I imagine?

Sure.

Do they have any checkpoints at the entrance/exit?

Once in Ceuta, you're already on the territory of Spain, unless this is some weird special case, there are no checkpoints while travelling inside the country, or even to anywhere within the EU.

Do they even have money to pay for the tickets

Ferry tickets aren't that expensive, and even Syrian refugees from 2015 had significant amounts (to the tune of $10K) that they'd pay to human smugglers.

Also, doesn't seem to be happening

Sure, it might not pan out this way, but the plan is far from crazy.

I also just thought of another obvious play - cross the border, and cry "asylum". It will take years before they kick you out, and they might even relocate you to the mainland on their own dime.

Once in Ceuta, you're already on the territory of Spain, unless this is some weird special case, there are no checkpoints while travelling inside the country, or even to anywhere within the EU.

This is a weird special case. There are internal border controls between Ceuta & Melilla and the mainland.

Well, good to hear that things aren't as insane as I feared.

Yes, claiming asylum is obvious, but in this case is not necessary as asylum claim protects one from deportation, and nobody seems to want to deport them now. They basically are roaming free, at least within Ceuta, but that's not a very good long term plan - they would need to have food, shelter, facilities, sources of income, etc.

, but in this case is not necessary as asylum claim protects one from deportation, and nobody seems to want to deport them now.

It formalizes your presence in the country, entitles you to room and board, and like I said, would result in you getting relocated into the mainland free of charge.

entitles you to room and board

Does it? I am not sure how it is in Spain, in US asylum claim does not entitle you to anything per se, you have to be actually approved to qualify for benefits, and even those are term-limited. There are ways around it if you land in a blue state with a developed NGO industrial complex (which are all major blue states) but I wonder how that works in Spain.

but that's not a very good long term plan - they would need to have food, shelter, facilities, sources of income, etc.

What's "long term"? Now, I'm not asking you to define the term. I'm asking you to imagine being unable to grok it in the first place.

There was an old tumblr post about some animal, a racoon maybe, that had gotten itself in trouble. Maybe stuck in trash, something like that. And the notable thing that made it worth posting was that the critter openly approached some humans for help. The OP phrased it as something like "It's neat that they've developed an instinct to, if all else fails, just go ask the local apex predators and maybe they'll fix it for no reason". And the follow on replies discussed how we were basically fey to them, with powers and motives beyond mortal comprehension.

I have met people who act like this. They're not visibly special needs, but they're probably below 80 IQ. And their problem solving approach very often reduces to "find a person dressed nice and ask them to use magic".

What would a nation of people like that look like?

Why would those people need to worry about food, shelter, facilities or money? They have crossed the gate into the FeyWild, and know now that the fey are kind and generous to a fault beyond their ken. Those things are Europe's problem now. The EU will just use magic and fix it for no reason.

The last Spanish election was a nail biter. This seems to be a pretty bold move by a government that is not that secure necessarily.

Another thing to point out is that Spain has an East Asian TFR now. On the flip side, they can get practically infinity immigrants from Latin America dependent solely on how many they want to let in. Letting in MENA immigrants just seems like a terrible idea given they haven’t gone through their source of more culturally compatible immigrants yet.

Update: an estimated 50,000–60,000 migrants illegally crossed the Ceuta border over the last 24 hours. For comparison, Ceuta has less than 85,000 inhabitants.

Fuller quote from article:

Spain's Interior Ministry said around 50,000 people had crossed the border since Thursday morning, and estimated that around 25,000 had already turned and gone back.

Juan Jesus Vivas, head of Ceuta's local government, said as many as 60,000 people had pushed across.

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