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There is a great new Substack article about the populist backlash to AI data centers by Jasmine Sun. She also did an interview with Ezra Klein for those of you who like audio content.
I like the article because Sun speaks fluent Silicon Valleyish while also taking the time and effort to visit and talk to the people on the ground in the rural Midwest instead of condecending at them from the coasts. She asks an important question: why precisely do people hate data centers so much?
Looking only at the statistics, AI land use and water use issues are fake. Nowhere is running out of land, and nowhere (West of San Antonio at least) is running out of water. Are the people in these communities stupid? Do they not know how to shut up and multiply?
It turns out that a lot of the fear and anger stems from a combination of distrust and PTSD from deindustrialization. An interesting example is Janesville, Wisconsin, a town with a giant concrete slab in the middle of it where the GM plant used to be.
Fascinating. The collapse of the auto industry in 2008 was apparently so bad that it is better to prevent industrial development alltogether in order to avoid the risk of another collapse. It almost makes sense until you think about it for 30 seconds.
Some of the objections Sun hears in other towns fare a bit better.
This is the steelman of the anti-data center position. People are worried that the big companies proposing data centers are going to Foxconn them and not deliver the supposed benefits.
One of the things that comes across especially clear in the Ezra Klein interview is just how unprepared the AI companies were for the backlash. They didn't realize how sketchy it comes across to insist on NDAs with local officials when negotiating deals. They thought, as a straightforward application of Coase's Theorem would tell you, that any bumps in the road could be ironed out by handing over a big bag of money. It turns out that people don't work that way. It feels like a bribe, and Americans do not like being bribed.
I haven't read the Substack article yet, but I did read the Klein interview, and what stood out to me was this:
A big part of the dissonance, it seems to me, is around the perception of what 'AI' is and whether it's valuable. Clearly a lot of people in Silicon Valley believe that this is a massively transformative technology that will be vital to the future of the country if not the world. They're frequently either outright singularitans, or simply believe that it willl turbo-charge the economy, massively increase wealth, change everything about employment, and so on.
But these people, and I admit I think they sound a lot more sensible than the tech people online, actually use the technology and go, "meh". They see it as a mildly amusing toy. Maybe it has some uses, in some niche fields, but for the most part it's just not very interesting. If they didn't get access to it, they would not particularly care.
An auto factory - you at least understand why cars are useful, and why the factories need to be built. A data centre is a huge investment for a thing that... isn't useful. All of this is in aid of a technology that's just fundamentally pretty crap. No one wants to make sacrifices for the infrastructure to produce more LLMs because no one thinks that LLMs are worth sacrificing for.
There is the marketing issue as well, of course. Pro-'AI' people tend to sound very cult-y online, at least in my experience. Many of them sound like lunatics. A lot of them also, well, to be blunt, are un-charismatic nerds. Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, etc., are not convincing ambassadors for a technology. I can understand nobody believing their promises - none of them project credibility, or even really respectability. The 'tech billionaire' is a cultural archetype at this point, and it is an archetype that one associates with immaturity, frivolity, narcissism, and callous disregard for other people and for human value in general. Last week I was talking about the book destruction story and it fits with the image again, as if there's this small cult-like group of anti-human tech-heads eager to sell the whole inheritance of the human community for digital pottage. I understand, in my gut, the feeling of disgust.
Yeah, that's the thing. All the proselytising for AI that I see - and that includes people discussing it on here and giving examples of what they use it for - is nearly all "it's great for coding". Yes, and I'm not a software engineer, have never coded in my life, and used Copilot once where, admittedly, it was useful. But in my day-to-day job, I don't use any AI and don't really as of yet see any need for it.
And most people are like that. "I work as a school caretaker. I'm a childcare practitioner. I work in a supermarket. I'm a nurse's aide. I'm a panel beater. What is this amazing difference AI is going to make to my life, make me 100x more productive, and give me $$$$$$ in stock options as my employer's valuation goes to the moon?"
Now, if we get proper business-oriented AI, not the "just use it, everyone says it'll make us a zillion times more profitable, no I don't know what you can use it for" versions being pushed now, then that will change. But right now it's "don't need to hire junior coders, our senior guys can do five times the work now" and "maybe office work? maybe?" for work, and mostly "ChatGPT for your online buddy/therapist/girl or boyfriend". That is the major use for ordinary people, I think: AI as 'my online best friend and lover'. And if you're average enough that you have a real world girlfriend or spouse, you don't see AI as being any good to you.
I'm not a programmer either, and I do get annoyed at the way 90% of AI discussion is centered around coding, but come on. Software is eating the world. Anything we do, we do with software. Cars have software, TVs have software, phones have software, books are increasingly read in e-ink readers, etc. Software is as fundamental to our life as oil, or electricity. Imagine a technology that made oil workers 5x more productive, and thereby made oil cost 1/5th as much. It would not just be about how much you save at the pump; it would mean cheaper groceries and plastics and plane tickets and probably entire new applications that nobody has ever implemented because they did not make sense at the previous price level. That's what AI is.
My vintage Land Cruiser doesn't have software, nor does my record player, my guitar, my film camera, or my porch swing.
And you know what? I'm a helluva lot happier when I'm using any of those things that I am using just about anything with software.
Given the way cars are going, I'm inclined to say that having software is a downgrade for my car.
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