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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   21519 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 17, 2026

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note that the media would never report on the phenomena that nearly all cross-race rapes between Whites and Blacks involve a White female victim.

The perpetrator chooses the victim. If the perpetrator chooses randomly, it is much more likely that a perpetrator in a small group would choose someone from a large group than a perpetrator in a large group would choose someone from a small group. And whites are a larger group. So it is statistically expected that cross-race rapes usually involve black perpetrators, and it does not mean that black people are more violent or more prone to rape the other race. It just means that since there are more whites, they have more oppopsite race targets.

Let the Black/White population proportions be P_B + P_W = 1, and assume groups have base rate r_B and r_W, and assume offenders victimise from the population at random (so no racial segregation, equal female sexual desirability for both races, etc)

So number of [race X] on [race Y] rapes = P_X * r_X * P_Y

So (# black on white rapes) / (# white on black rapes) = r_B / r_W

I claim this is the only reasonable reading of what @coffee_enjoyer said "nearly all cross-race rapes between Whites and Blacks involve a White female victim" and what you said "[with equal base rates] cross-race rapes [should irregardless] usually involve black perpetrators":

  • If you were given an unbiased feed of rapes and decided to focus in on the interracial cases (i.e. condition that victim race != perp race), the odds ratio you intuit will correspond to (1) - and indeed (1) should be 1 : 1 if B/W had equal rape rates (r_B / r_W = 1)
  • You guys phrase it sort of weirdly, talking about "[IR rape] involving a White female victim" and "[IR rape] involving a Black perpetrator", but once we've conditioned on the crime being interracial, both of those are the same and are referring exclusively to Black on White rape.

To be maximally charitable, I guess cross-racial ratios in isolation are not enough to say Blacks are more sexually dangerous than Whites, because White women are also more beautiful than Black women, so you should genuinely expect there to be a > 1:1 odds of an interracial rape being Black on White even with equal base rates.

Damn, are we even breaking arithmetic and/or algebra to carry water for blacks now?

Suppose 4,000 white men, 1,000 black men, with equal respective population sizes of women. Further suppose we live in a DESPITE-free alternative universe and the propensity to rape of both white and black men are the same, at 10% of the male populations being a rapist. So 400 white male rapists, 100 black male rapists.

Say each rapist only rapes once. If they choose their victims randomly, the expected number of white and black victims from the white male rapists is 320 and 80, respectively. The expected number of white and black victims from black male rapists is 80 and 20, respectively. Note that the white and black men have the same number of interracial rapes, both at 80. The greater probability of black men selecting white women based on random chance is balanced out by the greater number of white men.

However, we don’t live in such a bizarro DESPITE-free universe, so if we do observe that black-men-on-white-women rapes are more common than white-men-on-black-women rapes, that does mean that black men are more prone to committing rape than white men and/or are more likely to commit interracial rape.

Damn, are we even breaking arithmetic and/or algebra to carry water for blacks now?

FWIW I agree that @Jiro's math is nonsensical. It doesn't matter what the relative population sizes are, because a smaller population size means fewer potential rapists and fewer potential victims, which should precisely balance out (assuming even distribution of criminality and random victim selection).

that does mean that black men are more prone to committing rape than white men and/or are more likely to commit interracial rape.

Part of the issue, which came out during the Duke Lacrosse hoax, is that white on black rape is so rare as to be practically unheard of. This is a fact which causes liberals to freak out almost as much as other, more talked-about, racial disparities. And probably it's part of the reason why hoaxes like Duke Lacrosse can get so much traction.

That suggests that potential victims are equally distributed amongst the population. But if races are somewhat segregated, then it doesn’t follow that rape victims are randomly selected.

and it does not mean that black people are more violent or more prone to rape the other race.

Yes, it does.

Imagine a 80:20 split with equal propensity. The small group does 16 cross-group offenses and 4 in-group offenses. The large group does 16 cross-group offenses and 64 in-group offenses. The smaller target pool is perfectly balanced by the smaller perpetrator pool.

If that balance isn't maintained in reality, then why not?

I read "nearly all" to be a statement about ratios, not absolute numbers. What you (and Sloot above) said applies to absolute numbers.

Perhaps what you are trying to argue is that all things equal a larger amount of black crime would be interracial compared to white crime?

I agree that would be true as a matter of logic. As a matter of fact, though, all things are not equal.

Perhaps what you are trying to argue is that all things equal a larger amount of black crime would be interracial compared to white crime?

It seems to me that this would apply equally to both perpetration and victimization, so @Jiro 's point still doesn't make any sense.

So for example, suppose there are 100 blacks and 100,000,000 whites in society. If crime is randomly distributed, one would expect that if a black person is involved in a crime, almost certainly the other participant is white (while at the same time, if a white person is involved in a crime, almost certainly the other participant is NOT black).

But critically, this point applies equally to both black perpetrators AND black victims. So that if one looks only at interracial crimes, the ratio should still be equal.

Here's the point that was being responded to:

nearly all cross-race rapes between Whites and Blacks involve a White female victim

The argument that @Jiro made -- about relative sizes of populations -- doesn't explain this at all.

Perhaps what you are trying to argue is that all things equal a larger amount of black crime would be interracial compared to white crime?

Thank you.

I'm missing something. My model showed 16:16 total, or a 1:1 ratio. What did you mean?

Gesturing toward “nearly all” or “ratios” doesn’t salvage whatever point you were trying to make, it only further illustrates how the real world rejects the null hypothesis that black and white men are equally likely to commit rape/interracial rape.

In the hypothetical example I described—where by construction black and white men had equal propensity for rape and chose their victims randomly—the expected ratio of black-men-on-white-women to white-men-on-black-women rapes was 1:1. That is, white women were 50% of interracial rapes in the hypothetical, unlike “the [real world] phenomena that nearly all cross-race rapes between Whites and Blacks involve a White female victim” that @coffee_enjoyer mentioned.

I read "nearly all" to be a statement about ratios, not absolute numbers

Even so, your math is completely wrong. In a hypothetical world where (1) blacks and whites are equally likely to be rapists; and (2) victims are chosen at random, one would expect the ratio to be 1:1 as between black on white rape and white on black rape.

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