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Your predictions have been logged long enough to have been proven wrong. Violence has decreased broadly since the pandemic. I imagine you'll point towards the two attempted Trump assassinations and Charlie Kirk, but I'm unconvinced this is out of the ordinary for a particularly controversial political figure.
Are you willing to make any actual falsifiable predictions on any kind of timeline? You all predicted riots and burning and political violence after the Roe V. Wade repeal, after the 2024 elections, after pretty much every red tribe victory. And just like your predictions about the coming 1,000 year Christian Nationalist Reich in the wake of the 2024 election, you've been categorically wrong. What is it you all like to say? The demand for political violence outstrips supply?
I first read you predicting catastrophic political violence and the disintegration of American society 6 years ago on reddit, and I'm still here in 2026 reading it after none of these things have come to pass.
The left, broadly, killed the most popular young conservative in America that was the head of the movement.
The left, broadly, have come within an inch of killing a sitting President.
Until the day I die, I will read comments like yours and remember not only those two actions but the constant riots over the last several years over police shootings and well whatever, we don’t have to detail the post Covid collapse of civil society.
Yea - the right did Jan 6th … whoopty doo.
I understand society hasn’t collapsed, but if it does, it’ll come from whatever in the hell is happening to the left, here in the US, and abroad, with our European allies.
Maybe Japan and SKorea will be courageous enough to save us this time.
Was Kirk actually that load-bearing? This is one of those bubble things, maybe, but I never thought he was all that influential. Jordan Peterson seemed to have more pull. The big church groups had more sway than anyone. This was in the Midwest.
Bubble or not, I really disagree that “the left, broadly” did either of those things. A leftist murdered Kirk; a random asshole tried to kill Trump. Blaming “the left” is about as solid as hand-wringing about stochastic terrorism. I believe in individual responsibility.
The broad and horrifyingly ghoulish reaction, including in rationalist spaces, is doing a lot of work in establishing the "broadly."
Sure, one individual did it. Millions of cretins cheered for it and seemed to see nothing wrong with that, and seem to have no fear that anyone's going to do the same to Piker (who is a substantial worse person) or anyone else.
If someone offed Piker, I certainly wouldn't mourn him as a person, and I'm not convinced I could even summon much care for the principle. But I wouldn't blare a cheer across social media celebrating an increase in political violence and know that everyone that matters would have my back, either.
It is so, so easy to just... not say things. And so many people failed, horribly.
Yeah, I originally included a sentence about how a leftist murdered Kirk, and the left was way too fucking enthusiastic about it. I absolutely hate the responses that flooded social media. I will stand by the distinction, but it doesn’t mean I’m happy about it.
My wife is one of the most empathetic people I know. I don’t even think she would shoot someone in self-defense. But she will say, with a worried expression, that she wishes Trump had died at that rally. It’s unbelievable. Ingroup, outgroup, fargroup.
A not-Trump GoP candidate would still have beaten Kamala like a drum and, after instituting a state cultus of Trump, would then proceed to enact a much more effective agenda. Trump himself has largely failed to crown himself with laurels; a not-Trump candidate taking up the torch would probably have not only tried but succeeded in doing so.
With Trump gone it's likely Biden would not have dropped out. The hue and cry over his debate performance would be completely overshadowed by the spectacle of such a high-profile assassination, and the debate would be considered moot. I would guess a second debate would be scheduled very late in the cycle to give the GOP time to figure out what to do, at which point Biden probably does much better since he would have recovered from his cold, and the GOP would likely be running a candidate with no experience (doubtful they get Romney to run again.) With the advantage of incumbency, and lacking the sui generis Trump, I think Biden gets the higher probability.
The GOP would nominate Desantis(probably the donor favorite) or Abbott(probably the party insider favorite) or Rubio(a compromise position) very quickly. All of whom would destroy the senile Biden in a debate. The GOP would also benefit from the disgusted by Trump crowd no longer having to grit their teeth over trump. I think the GOP pulls an incredible map in this scenario- thé democrats were just incredibly unpopular.
Yes - I think the core fact about Trump's three elections is that in 2016 and 2024 either party could have won by nominating an empty suit instead of the unpopular candidate they did nominate, and in 2020 the Democrats did win by nominating an empty suit.
Interestingly, even if he had won the popular vote 55-45, DeSantis would only have got 15 more EVs. So many states are deep red or deep blue that 1980-style electoral college blowouts are no longer possible.
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