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Yeah, I originally included a sentence about how a leftist murdered Kirk, and the left was way too fucking enthusiastic about it. I absolutely hate the responses that flooded social media. I will stand by the distinction, but it doesn’t mean I’m happy about it.
My wife is one of the most empathetic people I know. I don’t even think she would shoot someone in self-defense. But she will say, with a worried expression, that she wishes Trump had died at that rally. It’s unbelievable. Ingroup, outgroup, fargroup.
A not-Trump GoP candidate would still have beaten Kamala like a drum and, after instituting a state cultus of Trump, would then proceed to enact a much more effective agenda. Trump himself has largely failed to crown himself with laurels; a not-Trump candidate taking up the torch would probably have not only tried but succeeded in doing so.
With Trump gone it's likely Biden would not have dropped out. The hue and cry over his debate performance would be completely overshadowed by the spectacle of such a high-profile assassination, and the debate would be considered moot. I would guess a second debate would be scheduled very late in the cycle to give the GOP time to figure out what to do, at which point Biden probably does much better since he would have recovered from his cold, and the GOP would likely be running a candidate with no experience (doubtful they get Romney to run again.) With the advantage of incumbency, and lacking the sui generis Trump, I think Biden gets the higher probability.
The GOP would nominate Desantis(probably the donor favorite) or Abbott(probably the party insider favorite) or Rubio(a compromise position) very quickly. All of whom would destroy the senile Biden in a debate. The GOP would also benefit from the disgusted by Trump crowd no longer having to grit their teeth over trump. I think the GOP pulls an incredible map in this scenario- thé democrats were just incredibly unpopular.
Yes - I think the core fact about Trump's three elections is that in 2016 and 2024 either party could have won by nominating an empty suit instead of the unpopular candidate they did nominate, and in 2020 the Democrats did win by nominating an empty suit.
Interestingly, even if he had won the popular vote 55-45, DeSantis would only have got 15 more EVs. So many states are deep red or deep blue that 1980-style electoral college blowouts are no longer possible.
In a versus Biden election, republicans might have swung New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, Maine(at large), New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Rhode Island. Thats much more than 15 EV. Biden was incredibly unpopular because he belonged in a memory care facility.
I agree that California was still not in play. But you’re underrating thé effect of ‘our candidate can speak in complete sentences’.
I think you are over-indexing on your reddish environment and hindsight. I know lots of people who voted Biden amongst the Americans of my acquaintance: not one had doubts about his age or his mind, they just wanted to go back to talking about taxes and medicare instead of immigration and culture. ("Normal politics" in other words.)
In 2024?
2020, sûre, Biden was relatively popular despite concerns about his age. But after the debate where he promised to beat Medicare?
Oh, sorry, I got confused about the timeline we were discussing. I think there's an okay chance they beat Biden, but I wouldn't bet money on it - Trump is very unpopular in many circles but also very popular in others who wouldn't have turned out for a regular Republican. I don't know how DeSantis stacks up. Mind you I'm not good at this: I'm on record as thinking that Kamala Harris would win the election.
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