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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   22656 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 24, 2026

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Bloomberg: Goldman Says Gulf Oil Flows Two-Thirds of Prewar Level

Oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March, they said.

A lot of ships are still making the crossing dark with transponders turned off but the trend is clear. Iran’s (supposed) leverage over the strait is basically nullified, oil is passing through despite Iranian proclamations. Independent analysts now agree with what the US government was saying weeks ago, that millions of barrels are passing through the strait under American auspices.

US CENTCOM agrees, putting out this statement that the US has escorted a few thousand ships through the Gulf, carrying through three-quarters of a billion barrels of oil over the past few months.

What changed?

Axios: "That sucker is open": U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz

Zoom in: After the MOU fell apart, the military worked to reopen the strait unilaterally. The effort included several elements:

  • Together with the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. military task force started guiding ships through the southern channel of the strait while giving them air cover and intercepting Iranian drone and cruise missile attacks.

  • A two-week U.S. bombing campaign significantly undercut the IRGC's capacity to attack ships crossing the strait.

  • A mine-sweeping operation involved Navy divers, Navy SEALs, underwater and surface drones, and private contractors to detect and neutralize the mines.

  • A blockade of Iranian ports was restored.

The US has apparently de-mined the Straits of Hormuz, although, interestingly, there don’t seem to have been many mines in the first place!

More than 200 mine-like objects have been swept from the main lane of the strait. U.S. officials say only 11 of them were actual mines and just a few were properly deployed.

It seems as though Iran’s capacities to threaten ship traffic the Strait were severely degraded by US military action, but that Iran was successfully able to convince news reporters and insurance companies that it could target ships.

For instance, Brady Sullivan at CNBC says

As I reported on @CNBC over a month ago, shipowners told me many “mines” we decoys … some were actually just inflated trash bags ostensibly made to seem like Hormuz was swimming with mines.

Meanwhile, Reuters: Pipelines and ports: Iran war spurs Gulf infrastructure investment

DUBAI, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The Iran war's redrawing of the global trade map is forcing Gulf nations to retool their investment play book, ploughing capital into infrastructure, from energy pipelines to ports, to weather the fallout from the conflict.

The war has highlighted the Gulf's overreliance on the Strait of Hormuz, previously a chokepoint for 20% of global oil flows ‌but also subject for decades to Iranian threats of disruption.

Not only has Iran lost control over the Straits, but Gulf states are building new pipelines to reroute oil around the Straits so that Iran can never threaten them again.

And how does it look inside Iran?

WSJ: Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran

Iranians rushed to buy fuel and food this week, signaling mounting economic pressure as the Trump administration’s threat to tighten sanctions sparked fears of deeper shortages and pain.

Small demonstrations by labor unions—which had all but disappeared during the war—are popping up across the country. Oil workers, pensioners and teachers have gathered to complain about the declining currency and rising cost of living.

————

Some might remember Trump’s infamous comments on this subject some months ago:

Q. And what's your backup plan?

The President. Excuse?

Q. What's your backup plan if the—there's no deal to open the Strait?

The President. The—you don't need a backup plan. We have—the military is defeated. Their military is gone. They have—you know, we've degraded just about everything. They have very few missiles. They have very little manufacturing capability. We've hit them hard. Our military is amazing——

The Shakes take: Iran will never toll the straits, Iran will never have nuclear weapons, Trump was right about everything, a lot of people who believed Iranian claims are looking very, increasingly, increasingly!, foolish.

There's an incredibly easy and simple way to check if oil flows are fine and normal now that doesn't involve reading through a bunch of articles or trusting claims by the US government or Iran government or anyone else. A method that is as objective as we could ask for. And that's just to look at the market. Are oil prices at or near pre war levels? Is the price of gasoline or other oil products/futures/etc back down to normal? If not, then no amount of words can refute the truth that things are not in fact resolved.

Because there is an easy criteria through which this claim can be objectively proven, not meeting the criteria is a sign the claim is false.

Because there is an easy criteria through which this claim can be objectively proven, not meeting the criteria is a sign the claim is false.

Except a lot of oil was released from various buffers to keep the price lower and these buffers now have to be refilled. At least for a couple of months you will have some serious extra demand.

No issue with what you wrote but it's clear that people here don't understand the SPR releases so I'll add a little detail.

The releases were not just strait up releases. They were swaps. Meaning the US releases oil now and gets it back later. Except the amount they get back later is 26% higher than what they released.

So, from a starting level of 411m barrels, we'll release 133m, and then get back 168m later over the next three years. This will give the US government a small profit of $2 or $3 billion.

The total amount released is about 1.3 days of worldwide consumption or about 6.5 days of oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. It's a relatively small amount in the scheme of things. It's also a good midwit tell. The best SPR we have is the 14 million barrels of oil the U.S. produces every day. The second best SPR we have is in Venezuela and Guyana.

The releases were not just strait up releases. They were swaps. Meaning the US releases oil now and gets it back later. Except the amount they get back later is 26% higher than what they released.

Doesn't matter if the "later" doesn't come before the reserves are depleted.

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