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So... big win for AfD last night: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4zejgz3z9o. How important is this?
Since I'm not one to closely follow European politics, at first I thought this meant that they had won control of the entire national parliament. But then I noticed that, no, it's just one state election, and they're still short of a majority. In every other state, they have far less support, and every other party is still maintaining a rule to never work with them, so the AfD is still effectively shut out of power everywhere.
I suppose it's another sign of their trajectory, though. They seem to win more and more votes in every election. I remember when, not long ago, they were an extreme minority fringe party. Now they get enough votes that it's difficult for the other parties to form a coalition without them.
Is this a sign that the people of Germany are secretly longing to Nazi again? I doubt it. They seem to still be, on the whole, an extremely leftist-liberal nation. Pro-immigration, pro-welfare, anti-militarism, anti-nationalism, and anti-nuke. So I wonder how much this surge in support for AfD is driven by immigration, or how much of it is just them being the only real conservative party that gives voters an alternative to the status quo?
I also wonder what the AfD would actually do if they came into power? There's a big range between "slightly restrict immigration" and "force all the immigrants to pack up and go home." I suspect they haven't entirely figured it out themselves, since for now they're still just a protest vote. Not to mention how they'd have to figure out their policy on every single other policy issue. It's easy to make big promises when you have no actual power to deliver on them.
But I don't know! Maybe I'm wrong. I really don't know much about German politics, I just saw this and I thought it was interesting. Anyone else have thoughts?
Europe is seeing an increased support for anti-immigration policies. Not only is there a desire to limit future migration and increase requirements for applicants, a significant amount of people want to kick out people who managed to achieve citizenship without assimilating, alongside descendants who also did not assimilate. As I understand it, this kicking out of citizens who should not have gotten citizenship in the first place is the goal of AfD and similar parties on the continent.
This makes sense to me on some level; If you hate all of western society and want to rebuild the caliphate, then you have no business here. The middle east can have you back for all I care.
On the other hand, this seems like a slippery slope that draws into question what citizenship even is. Making it possible to kick out people recognized as citizens seems like a dangerous Chesterton's fence to tear down. For one, it gives the government the ultimate power to kick out citizens it dislikes. This seems like a real danger to a democracy where people are supposed to have disagreements and come to agreements through dialogue. It also draws into question what it even means to be German in the first place. Would anyone be safe if such a law was allowed? Is there any amount of generations that a family can live in Germany after which it becomes German? Or will everyone have to watch what they say in fear that their opinions may one day be recognized as against the national interest?
It makes sense then, that the existing conservative parties would be concerned about a newcomer which wants to make such radical changes. At the same time though, I don't understand why they seem so disinterested in at least limiting future immigration. There is a real concern here from a substantial proportion of the population, and political parties are supposed to represent their constituents. If the established parties would take on the more reasonable parts of AfD policies (limiting immigration and increasing requirements for applicants), that would probably net them a lot of voters and weaken AfD, without having to concede to the more extremist demands of kicking out legal citizens.
A polite fiction, at this point. At least paper citizenship is. It means nothing. It's worth nothing. It's been given away so freely to so many that should never have had it. It's like degree devaluation, but worse.
Only those with alternative citizenships. Which is completely fair; paper citizens should always be at risk of removal, to keep them in line. Ideally there would be a way of preventing them from renouncing alternative citizenships before we can revoke their granted ones. (Well, ideally, they should never have been invited in in the first place, and I will still never understand the impulse to economic and social self mutilation that did so.)
Well, no, not if their concern is towards the actual people of the country. If they have loyalty to paper citizens over blood ones, then they shouldn't be anywhere near power anyway and should be roundly disregarded on all concerns.
They don't actually care who they rule over, so long as they rule. Germans or Bomalians, it's all the same to them. They just want to rule over the most people possible. The Bomalians are maybe considered slightly easier to rule over due to being less disposed towards intelligence due to... alternative breeding strategies. This is however, under the assumption that they can be deprived of their violently backwards religions and ideologies by the civilising light of western culture (which they cannot.)
If by bathroom sink is overflowing due to someone leaving the taps on 100% flow for ages, if my floors are getting soaked and everything is getting water damaged, simply turning the taps some of the way off doesn't fix anything. If your ship is sinking, covering up some of the hole and refusing to bail water because it would be "mean" to displace it, doesn't fix anything. The damage from mass migration is cumulative, it is the stock, not the flow that matters.
Flows definitely DO matter, a lot of the difference between a well ordered system and disordered one is the rate. When the rate is low enough for assimilation to be easy and for the population of immigrants not to be rapidly growing over time it works fine.
The reason remigration is needed is that the rates have been so high that reverse flow is needed to get things at a steady state.
Stock and Flow do matter.
As far as I can tell Mexico has a largely unified Mexican Culture and assimilation of their ethnic groups has occurred. By global standards it’s a fairly wealthy country helped by closeness to the US. It’s also a low-trusts society. It’s a very common story to be robbed by the police in Mexico which does not happen anywhere else that has their level of wealth. Most of the US black population is unassimilated. Brazil has a culture but the stock still leads to dysfunctional politics.
Flow arguments do matter at times like with the Italians who eventually assimilated, but stock arguments also matter when assimilation between different ethnic groups is impossible.
Unified Mexican culture is largely ‘me and my brother against my cousin’. They’re fractious, identify as members of a particular state, region, or hometown, snooty about race, and they still have their own unassimilated minorities. There’s commonalities, yeah, but the noroeste/south/coastal/DF divide is huge. And Mexico’s high GDP is mostly driven by the Noroeste and DF which look down on the rest of the country- and the Noroeste is noticeably more America-like in comparison.
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