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Notes -
So something actually happened regarding Greenland.
Details are fuzzy, but Trump just posted that the US made an agreement with Denmark and Greenland gives the US permanent military control over Greenland, the right to expand its military presence there and, most importantly, to veto any foreign intervention on the island.
This will not make Greenland a part of the United States, which means Mercator Projection dominance lies beyond our grasp for now.
Critics will point out that this doesn't really change anything since the U.S. already had de-facto military control over Greenland. I think in these case the critics would be wrong. If Trump's post is accurate, this does seem substantially different from the previous agreement. It's permanent, the US can expand with Denmark's permission, and they can deny foreign expansion without Denmark's say so.
It's unclear exactly what the US gave up in order to get these concessions, but Trump says it will cost the US taxpayer nothing. Perhaps there are trade concessions?
What's somewhat interesting is that the US barely has a presence on Greenland at all anymore. At one point, in the Cold War, it stationed 10,000 troops there consisting of a quarter of Greenland's population. Today, just 150-200 unlucky souls man the Pituffik Space Base in northern Greenland. Perhaps that's what makes this agreement valuable. The U.S. can now deny adversaries such as China a perch in Greenland without having to actually send in troops.
This seems like a big nothing burger to keep Trump happy. Isn't this just the 1951 deal except with the USSR replaced by China and Russia? And it's not like Denmark was going to allow China to station soldiers there or China would even want to anyway. It just seems like great headlines but no substantial change.
It prevents the Chinese from investing in Greenland, which they have been doing in the form of buying up mining rights. They've even tried buying the abandoned Grønnedal naval base in Greenland in 2016. That was rebuffed with pressure from Washington but there was no guarantee CCP-backed Chinese companies wouldn't keep trying and one day succeed.
https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/4834625/Chinese_investments_in_Greenland_DIIS_Report_2021_05.pdf
Any such ban is very likely in Denmark’s national interests and only needed external pressure because like everywhere, politicians tend to be extremely shortsighted and will rate ”Look, we’re getting $20M investment” over things such as ”Wait, how come China was able to control a critical resource and allow Russians to set up permanent spying stations here?”
You don't think that having a choice of patrons is in Denmark's national interest?
In this particular case no, I strongly don't think that having a choice to allow China control over such things is in Denmark's national interests. It's probably in the interests of specific politicians, parties or governments, but not in the national interests.
This is really no different from eg. mass immigration from MENA definitely not being in the national interests of a whole lot of European countries which hasn't prevented many of the governments supporting it. Politicians, parties and governments do short sighted stupid shit all the time.
In all seriousness, why not? Why is it in Denmark's interests for the US to take control of Denmark's territory and use it as a military staging ground, to do all the usual espionage and bugging and economic coercion that they do, giving nothing back, but opening those opportunities to multiple patrons and seeing what offers they get isn't in Denmark's interest?
Because the Chinese will
take over their sovereign territory in exchange for $20M investment?sorry, too soon. Because the Chinese will eventually crush them with an iron fist and rule over them like they do Hong Kong? The Americans really are good guys and the Chinese really are bad guys?I'm being snarky, but I genuinely want to know.
"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."
Lord Palmerston
First, I very specifically did not say that US control over the resources was good or in Denmark’s interests, only that allowing China to have such control is bad for Denmark’s national interests.
Second, it’s really two factors: US has already had military control over Greenland for six plus decades. So nothing really changes in that respect. Second, China is in cahoots with Russia (mostly in an opportunistic way, not due any ideological reasons) and Russia is an actual live threat to Europe, including Denmark (not in a ”Russia will win a land war” but ”Russian leadership is crazy enough that there is a very real risk they choose to go for an ’everybody loses’-scenario”).
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Only if they really have a choice -- similarly with Canada, if China started actually doing anything serious in Greenland, a bunch of Marines would be showing up tout de suite.
Maybe. I still think that not wanting to look like imperial dictators who take your sovereign rights whether you want them to or not is important to the Americans, it holds together a good half of the empire that would otherwise demand a much higher level of oversight and bribery and wrangling. There's a decent amount of leverage there, but you have to show yourself willing to employ it.
America has never cared a pennysworth for the "sovereign rights" of other states -- America is about individual rights.
And in the event, this would be framed as using their imperial might in defense of the individual rights of the good people of Greenland/Canada against the Yellow Peril -- even if in reality broader State Department priorities like "we can't have China on our doorstep" were more at play. (see: Ukraine)
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