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PaperclipPerfector  11hr ago (text post)   1503 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026

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Back in 2025, DOGE axed USAID and, according to partisans on the left and right, the results have been monumental.

To the left, USAID was somehow singlehandedly keeping millions of Africans alive. The loss of USAID resulted in their deaths. Wikipedia, the fallen one, reports this:

The impact of the actions taken by the USAID on global health is wide-reaching.[34] A study published in June 2025 estimated that funding cuts and the abolition of the agency could result in more than 14 million preventable deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under 5 years old.[9] Another estimate (by epidemiologist and health economist Brooke Nichols) is that over a period of one year from when they began, the cuts will result in the deaths of as many as 262,915 adults and 518,428 children.[35]

Obviously this is farcical on its face. And nearly 18 months later, there is no evidence of the massive death wave that was predicted.

Not to be outdone, the right has its own version of a USAID conspiracy theory: that closing USAID somehow killed leftism in South America.

Since USAID was shut down, seven countries in Latin America have held Presidential elections (Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, and Colombia). All seven have elected a President who is right of center. Brazil now remains as the strongest center of leftism in Latin America. But it looks like they might flip as well. In the first round of voting, Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula by nearly 2 points. They now advance to the runoff.

Conservatives on X are crowing about how this shows that USAID was propping up leftist governments in Latin America. But... I just don't see the mechanism. The money spent was too small. The programs too ineffectual.

The likelier truth about USAID is, like most government programs, it was essentially useless. The biggest political effect is that it allowed leftists a sinecure with good pay and benefits. And cutting it was worth it for that reason alone. But did cutting USAID kill people in Africa or bring down communists in Latin America? Press D to doubt.

I AM bought in on the idea that the crushing of funding for various NGOs and similar government agencies that controlled the flow of 100's of millions of dollars with minimal accountability has resulted in the collapse of the overall lefty network of professional activists and organizers, and thus reduced their capability of shifting outcomes in various countries.

The amounts of rampant fraud that has come out in the last couple years is convincing me that there are well-oiled grift machines out there that convert tax dollars into either Mansions, Range Rovers, and Crab legs for some particular class of people, OR converts them into protests, election influence, and propaganda for particular candidates or causes. And STILL DOES, but has to be more judicious with its spending. Nudging a lefty candidate over the line in Bolivia, thus, would be less of a priority than, say, making one of your guys the Mayor of New York or Los Angeles.

And these flows were HIGHLY dependent on the U.S. government acting as a rich but absent-minded benefactor who hears a nice sounding cause or title and keeps writing checks because nobody told them what the money actually went to. Then you've got your George Soros' and Meckenzie Bezos supplementing these efforts, and funds being directed towards keeping those funds flowing, and it becomes a perfect parasitic organism.

So it is completely believable to me that organizations doing the work on the ground and sloshing money around to various causes in-country got dismantled due to lack of funding and these close elections are now slipping back towards the less-well-funded side.

I would want to see the actual money flows traced, however.

The amounts of rampant fraud that has come out in the last couple years is convincing me that there are well-oiled grift machines out there that convert Tax dollars into either Mansions, Range Rovers, and Crab legs for some particular class of people, OR converts them into protests, election influence, and propaganda for particular candidates or causes.

The US elections coming up will be instructive. So far the absentee ballots requested are way down, which might speak to the disruption of some, um, how shall we say, "get out the vote" efforts.

If Democrats don't win bigly, as predicted by polls and prediction markets, then perhaps there was a lot of electoral fraud after all.

I am genuinely surprised that the polls insist on a Democrat sweep at this stage.

Aside from Gas prices (which are trending down?) and a few bad candidates in races, the GOP is pretty well situated and the base seems motivated!

So I actually have some bets on some Prediction markets that there's a likely stronger Republican showing than expected, especially in Texas. Regardless of how 'bad' Paxton is, its just truly hard to imagine a Dem waltzing to victory there.

Which... we've already seen that the polls can have such a bias. As you're suggesting, if the polls have a bias AND any theoretical electoral fraud machine is crippled, we should honestly expect a narrow Republican victory rather than the certain blowout they allege is brewing.

Trump and Co. sure seem to be acting like they expect a good outcome.

So yeah. I will slightly update my priors on 'electoral fraud is a systemic problem and it impacts national elections' in favor of "true" if the Dems have an underwhelming night.

I am genuinely surprised that the polls insist on a Democrat sweep at this stage.

Aside from Gas prices (which are trending down?) and a few bad candidates in races, the GOP is pretty well situated and the base seems motivated!

Wanna bet?

YES! As stated, I've placed bets, although zeroed on more specific races/outcomes.

What are your odds on the midterms swapping control of both House and Senate?

I am genuinely surprised that the polls insist on a Democrat sweep at this stage.

The Trump administration has been extraordinarily chaotic. And dysfunctional. Also war.

Chaotic, maybe. Dysfunctional, hardly. You couldn't have asked for better performance on the core goal of the administration. They have completely closed the border and have deported 1 million people, accelerating over time. No one could have predicted that level of success. IMO, they earn an A+ on that issue, and it's the most important issue.

Deporting 1 million people in 1-2 years sounds like a success until you consider that somewhere between 5 and 20 million people entered under Biden. So at best he's falling short of reversing the change wrought by the previous admin and at worst he's bailing water from the lifeboat with a spoon. That's assuming you only care about illegal migration specifically; if you have a problem with H1Bs then it's even worse than that.

Second most important. The most important always will be cost of living. And the only way I could characterize the Trump foreign policy signature issue - tariffs is difunctional.

Immigration is by far the most important for Trump (and also for me and the health of the country).

Though people might say affordability is the most important, it was always a fake crisis that the party out of power uses as a cudgel for the party in power. Except for a couple years during the Biden admin, real wages have gone up consistently. But people's expectations go up faster thanks to Instagram and other comparison tools.

And of course the usual solution to "affordability" is to subsidize demand or to rob Peter to pay Paul, which just makes the problem worse.

I know that it's still important for Trump to acknowledge the retarded demands of the people. It's just that, in 5 years, no one will remember that gas was $1 higher than normal for a sixth month period. But immigration, if left to continue unabated, will permanently ruin the country.

I agree with you. Doesn't change the fact that USA is unfortunately functioning democracy and people are swayed by the strain on their wallets. If Trump manages to hold to some legislative power he may as well be celebrated as visionary 20 years down the line - especially when we see what joy and benefits diversity brings on France's streets now. But doesn't change that winning elections in democracy is not optional.

Compared to Trump 1 this has been a positively stoic 2 years, with plenty of policy wins racked up.

I simply disagree.

The War is baked in, but as stated, gas prices have actually been on the downward trend, which is the main day-to-day reminder of the war.

Trump and Co. sure seem to be acting like they expect a good outcome.

Is that why he promised $5000 to everyone if they won the midterms?

Yes.

Very literally yes.

If he didn't think they were within distance, why even bother? At this point, I suspect they view it as a simple matter of goosing turnout.

Trump said as much recently.

https://polymarket.us/event/usgub-oh-2026-11-03

We'll see if that's an effective strategy considering his approval ratings.

The Senate in particular seems like it will be hard for Democrats to capture. They need to flip 4 seats.

The easiest to flip are North Carolina, Maine, Texas and Ohio. After that, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas. With the exception of Maine these are all red states! Trump won Texas by 14, Iowa by 13, Ohio by 11!

They also need to avoid being flipped in Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Georgia.

Michigan in particular is a tough race for them with a DSA Muslim vs a turbo normie. Wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers win that one by 8 points.

Michigan in particular is a tough race for them with a DSA Muslim vs a turbo normie. Wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers win that one by 8 points.

How much you wanna bet? I'll take even odds that Rogers loses.

Why would I ever bet you with those odds when I can get much better odds on Kalshi? What a strange offer. Counterparty risk means I wouldn't bet you at any odds, no offense.

Talk is cheap. I don't believe you.

Basically what I'm saying. If the big national races are close, semi-coinflip outcomes should ultimately come down for the GOP in the end. You have to believe in a serious blue wave to expect a flip of the Senate, especially a flip that actually gives them 'control' vs. just a nominal majority.

Polymarket believes blue wave, Nate silver believes blue wave, polls predict blue wave, RCP believes blue wave, rumors are that GOP insiders believe blue wave, I am pro Trump also - but I think that his absolute remarkable dumb political luck has finally ran out. A nominal majority is control when it comes to appointments and passing laws.

I have not heard the 'GOP insiders' rumor, personally.

I also don't see Dems acting like they expect such a win.

The problem with citing PolyMarket, Nate Silver, RCP, and polls is they're all functionally drawing from the exact same data, nobody has 'insider' info here.

IF that dataset it tainted, biased, or otherwise missing something, which has happened before then they can't give you a more accurate picture just by aggregating them together.

And we already have some pretty sizeable polling misses in the primaries!

I think its fair to say the error bars are probably larger than you think. Like, after the Ur-example of a polling miss in Trump's 2016 original win, you should keep your salt grains on hand for reading political polls.

And importantly, Trump needs 50 non-cucked Republicans to make any appointments. Judges can rule like kings in many cases. We need Trump to be able to appoint them which he can't do without those 50 votes.

I am hopeful for a blue fizzle based on demonstrated poll bias. But maybe I have my head in the sand.

Do you have links towards serious analysis why polls are terribly wrong that is not fueled by binge on copium and hopium?

North Carolina is a Purple state, It has a democrat governor and a republican state legislature. It doesn't help that the Republican senate candidate is fairly odious, and the democratic senate candidate is a fairly popular former governor. I think it is likely Roy Cooper takes the senate seat.

I agree that North Carolina is a likely flip, made less painful by the fact that Thom Tillis was a closet Democrat.

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