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They will never, ever get them back. They didn't get 18-inch barrel restrictions back when they fucked up and lost it. They didn't get braces or bump-stocks back when those leaked through. They haven't gotten FRTs back. They won't get SBRs or suppressors back either. If they are smart, they'll recognize the fait accompli and just let it go. If they're not smart, my guess is you see another round of Red State defiance the way you did with the border, and likely worse if they double-down.
President AOC (or Newsom)'s ATF will have fully automatic weapons, not to mention incendiary grenades. If they say "Mr. and Mrs. Gunowner, turn them all in" and then kill a few members, or an entire compound, of some unpopular group to punctuate their point, they'll get most of it back, and the rest will end up buried until they rust to uselessness.
Even Texas and Florida are not going to put their own police in the way of the ATF.
Texas did put police in the way of the open border and Biden just... let them.
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I think the federal government does not want more Ruby Ridge and Waco style debacles. It's a PR disaster when they burn down the home of defiant people*. Some gun control advocates like to use feds death-squadding or bombing people who don't comply with gun laws as a trump card. Something about fighter jets being used to enforce compliance in a way an AR15 can't stop. They act like it is a mic drop debate ender to point out the feds have armored vehicles and fighter jets. But the fantasy of feds burning and bombing their political opponents is just not going to happen in the modern era. A century ago a little bit of that could happen but the feds are just softer now. Photos of federal agents standing over charred ruins mixed with dead children will prevent this†. Not that they have any moral issues with murdering their fellow Americans, but the terrible PR would harm their supporters in elections and they can't stand that.
*Branch Davidians actually burned down their own compound. But it looked like the feds did it and FBI agents perjured themselves denying that they used incendiary tear gas canisters.
† Like all those photos from Waco.
How’s Malinowski’s widow’s lawsuit going?
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If.
Is there any precedent for SWAT raids on generally-law-abiding gun owners? If there isn't, what are the signs that the next administration will break new ground?
Ken Ballew would be 1971.
Also John Lawmaster 1991, on a tip that he had an illegally-converted machine gun. Fortunately Lawmaster wasn't home. ATF trashed the place, left the guns unsecured, and left a note "Nothing found- ATF". Probably the note is what gives the story staying power.
There's the 1994 Pennsylvania Lamplugh raid where ATF agents are alleged to have stomped a kitten to death.
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The Biden raids of "kitchen-table" gun dealers -- note that the Trump Administration is still defending his "engaged in the business rule".
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