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Let's talk midterms. I haven't been keeping up with the races too much, but some quick research shows that Polymarket has odds for Democrats to take the House at ninety four percent and Democrats to take the Senate at seventy two percent (House market, Senate market). Apparently, the odds of a Republican sweep are down to five to seven percent (Balance of Power market).
Obviously, we can't really trust polls entirely. But I do trust the markets to be at least somewhat accurate, and so things are looking pretty horribly bad for Republicans. What are the actual implications if this happens? Because like I don't know, the second Trump term after Doge flopped, or rather, after Trump pulled back on Doge and was afraid to actually back them when it mattered. This whole term feels like kind of a mess.
What actual goals are going to be blocked by the Trump administration if the Democrats win a sweep? And I guess how much can they get done if they don't control the presidency? Or is it mainly, like, if they win the presidency in 2028 that things are gonna be bad? Walk me through the real ramifications of midterms flipping for the Democrats.
There’s not a huge difference between 53 seats and 56 Dem seats for the remainder of Trump’s term, but it could have big repercussions for the country down the line. A 56+ seat majority in 2029 with a Democrat house and president probably abolishes the filibuster, packs the Supreme Court, and admits Washington DC and Puerto Rico as states.
Yes. They will also open the border and amnesty the people who are already here.
It will lead to a permanent one party state.
Of course, this requires the Democrats to win the Presidency in 2028 as well. Nevertheless, the best way to prevent this from happening is to secure Republican control of the senate. Since senators are elected for 6 years, this election will influence the likelihood of a one-party state in the near future.
No, it will not. Demographics and attitudes have changed before. For example, around 1861, the (Southern) Democratic Party was openly pro slavery, and a few years later that was simply no longer a majority-winning proposition, thus the Republican party ruled in perpetuity.
Not. Instead, what happened was that the Southern Democrats went from pro-slavery to merely horribly racist, which still won them elections. As attitudes changed, so changed the parties, because any party which does not try to be palatable to the median voter will generally not win elections (depending on gerrymendering, obviously).
If your model is e.g. that the Democrats will invite in zillions of Muslim third-worlders to bolster their rank, I would predict that at some point the woke leadership would clash with the immigrants over LGBT and women's rights, for example. For a Republican, campaigning on "should minors be allowed to get puberty blockers against the religious objections of their parents" would be an easy win.
Democrats very obviously intend to grant themselves overwhelming electoral advantages by making significant changes to America's political structure. They've been publicly discussing methods to achieve these goals for decades.
Most of these tactics, individually, stand a good chance of excluding Red Tribe from political power for the foreseeable future if implemented. You can claim that this is not the same as a one-party state and that all of these are legitimate and even necessary actions if you like; I'm sure that other Blues will agree.
Though they didn't do most of those the last time they had a trifecta.
They thought they didn't need to. Coming off GWB, they were riding high. Hope and Change, Dempgraphic Destiny, and a strong majority to prove the obvious superiority of Technocratic Progressivism.
Then they got hit with the double-whammy of losing to Trump just as they were starting to grasp that Technocratic Progressivism was a total failure. The last 10 years has been the worlds longest toddler-tantrum shitfit, spiraling deeper and deeper because the only way out was to develop some humility and it was more cathartic to wallow in hate.
(How did that recent line from James Carville go? "If there was a pill that made me hate Trump more I'd take it every day"?)
No, it couldn't be that just being good at homework wasn't actually enough to "solve" major issues like healthcare or the environment. It was all those looters and wreckers! If only all the looters and wreckers could just be... stopped, in some sort of total and final manner, then they can just be right about everything again!
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