site banner
Goodguy  9hr ago (text post)   Edited 6hr ago   3685 thread views

Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

What are the chances Trump gets impeached now and actually removed from office? Could he go to prison even? He is beyond fucked. Republicans are already turning on him on the timeline.

I think the odds that Trump is gone within a year are around 95%. (And I hope this prediction is as accurate as my election predictions from yesterday.... because the only chance for Republicans to win in 2028 is if they get rid of Trump.)

95%??? What gives you such confidence? Very few presidents have actually been removed from office.

Republicans will be in a far better position to win the next election if they remove Trump from office. If they remove him from office (or more likely, he will resign prior to being convicted), they will lose maybe 1-5% of their base in the next election from the "betrayal", but gain 5-10% which they would otherwise not be able to get if Trump remains President.

And Democrats are on track to have 55-57 Senate seats (I predicted 55 seats would be the most likely outcome, and Murkowski might switch parties), so they will only need 10-12 safe-seat Republican Senators to get on board to remove him from office.

I can guarantee you that there are at least that many Republican Senators that would be delighted to get rid of albatross Trump, especially after what an asshole he's been to so many of them, and their own personal disdain for him.

I also predict that Elon Musk, their biggest donor, along with Thiel and some other big donors, will happily support removing Trump.

So it's a no-brainer that this is going to happen. Trump can even simply resign for "health reasons" or whatever.

And there's historical precedent for Republicans to potentially bounce back. Nixon resigned as soon as enough Republicans were willing to vote to convict, and then his VP only lost the 1976 Presidential election by 1%. It's not a good chance for Republicans in 2028, but at least it's a chance.

I can guarantee you that there are at least that many Republican Senators that would be delighted to get rid of albatross Trump

How's that supposed to work? The only reason he's an "albatross" is he listened to the neocons and went all in on Iran. Would any of the non-Trumpian Republicans avoid that?

Would any of the non-Trumpian Republicans avoid that?

Even George W. Bush didn't go in on Iran. Listening to the neocons is one thing but if you only listen to them and Tel Aviv and not the rest of the military or intelligence apparatus...

Even George W. Bush didn't go in on Iran.

Not for lack of desire. He had his hands full with 2 other full scale occupations.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats