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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   36719 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 20, 2023

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New research paper attempts to quantify which professions have to most to lose from the introduction of GPTs into the larger world. From the abstract:

Our findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted.

The results vary by models but mathematics and math-related industries like accounting have the highest risk. The researchers overall found that "information processing industries (4-digits NAICS) exhibit high exposure, while manufacturing, agriculture, and mining demonstrate low exposure" (pg 15) and "programming and writing skills...are more susceptible to being influenced by language models."

I find myself wondering if "learn to code" from however long back will shortly become "learn to farm" or some such.

I have never taken these sort of studies or projections with much salt. Any job loss is easily negated by the creation of new, unforeseen jobs as well as more total jobs as the economy grows. AI as far back as 15 years ago was projected to displace lawyers, doctors, and journalists...not even close to happening. At best, AI only replaces a part of the job, not the whole thing. AI can help doctors diagnose conditions but cannot treat patients, nor can it make invasive diagnosis like biopsy.

Any job loss is easily negated by the creation of new, unforeseen jobs as well as more total jobs as the economy grows.

This process has, in the past, led to a lot of disruption. Coal miners and journalists aren't going to learn to code. There are winners and losers. You can see the effects of this in hollowed-out cities all over the Rust Belt. Even the winning areas aren't necessarily in great shape. What has 50 years of "winning" done for the Bay Area except to make it a worse place to live for nearly everyone?

I agree that the disruption will be hard to predict. Some "disrupted" professions may even see a pay raise as increased productivity raises the value of their work.

All this, of course, ignores the possibility of true AGI coming beyond which these concerns may seem quaint.

As someone who lives in the Rust Belt, automation isn't what did American industry in. In fact, I'd posit that the industry would have been able to hang on longer if it had automated sooner. It wasn't as if a wave of automation caused massive layoffs; that would suggest that the improved productivity and lower costs gave industry a leg up and enabled it to become leaner and more profitable. Instead, what we saw was unemployment due to widespread plant closures and bankruptcies. The problem with American industry was that it had, throughout most of its existence, been driven by the availability of cheap energy. And when energy is cheap, expensive efficiency improvements are hard to justify. The oil shocks of the 70s found these industries with rapidly escalating costs and outdated equipment, and suddenly their manufacturing was no longer profitable.

The problem with German industry was that it had, throughout most of its existence, been driven by the availability of cheap energy. And when energy is cheap, expensive efficiency improvements are hard to justify. The natural gas shocks of the 2020s found these industries with rapidly escalating costs and outdated equipment, and suddenly their manufacturing was no longer profitable.

So now the real question: was the coming collapse of German industry and general European economic competitiveness a specific goal of American policy, a side effect, or something the Americans were seeking to avoid?

Not enough agency to the Europeans in this, IMO.

Aside from German government incompetence, more than the Americans, I'd give credit to the French on any planning to profit at German expense. The Paris Climate Accords were structured in such a way that enabled the key global economic blocks (EU/US/China) to justify protectionism on environmental grounds, but it was Paris who was leading the European Union's legislative phase-out of internal combustion engine cars, which have been a key part of the German economic model. This is classic French economic-advantage-by-legislation, a natural extension of the Paris Climate Accords themselves and was negotiated in the twilight of the Merkel era. The EU combustion engine ban is one of those 'the people who write the rules can write the rules to advantage themselves,' but whereas the French have reliable nuclear baseload power for their auto-industry, the Germans were betting on the Russian energy over repeated and decades-long American objections.

When what was functionally a Russian energy subsidy to German industry went away, so did the viability of the EV market leader, hence why the Germans threw the wrench and blocked the EU internal combustion ban from going forward this month.

It's mostly a self-own by the Europeans who bought into a failed model of energy production, aka "solar is already cheaper than coal", not realizing the importance of baseload power and how faked the numbers were on behalf of renewables.

As American energy policy is just as blundering, I don't think there's a master plan here. It's just incompetence all the way down.

It will be China, not the U.S., which benefits from lowered European industrial production. Curiously, China is building out new coal plants that will use more coal than all existing European plants. 2022 set the record for worldwide coal consumption. 2023 will be higher. So it goes.

Somewhere in a folder from the 1970s, there's a plan for a nuclear future for Europe. Maybe they should dust that off.

It was something that was part of the same problem. Same with British industry. As soon as energy costs went up manufacturers couldn't produce products at prices anywhere near what people were willing to pay. Stagflation was a bitch, and US Steel was losing money on every ton it sold just to avoid having to shut down entirely. It wasn't a problem of US industrial production being outcompeted by foreign production or automated production, it was a question of a problem of high oil prices for a decade triggering a recessions that lasted more or less as long.

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