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Was a bit surprised to see this hadn't been posted yet, but yesterday Yudkowsky wrote an op-ed in TIME magazine where he describes the kind of regime that he believes would be necessary to throttle AI progress:
https://archive.is/A1u57
Some choice excerpts:
if its presence in the CW thread needs justifying, well, it's published in a major magazine and the kinds of policy proposals set forth would certainly ignite heated political debate were they ever to be seriously considered.
"Yudkowsky airstrike threshold" has already become a minor meme on rat and AI twitter.
It's not possible without a world state with global hegemony. If China claims their fancy new datacenter is REALLY just for the tracking of political dissidents and their social credit scores and is totally not running an AI, what is an anti-AI US going to do about it?
Since I probably won't get a better chance to bring this up: there's something I don't understand about the China fearmongering.
The basic argument for why AI is a good thing is that it will lead to the singularity. Post-scarcity future, incredible scientific development, transhumanism and the realization of human potential, and so on and so forth. Implicit in this argument seems to be the premise that, if we get a good outcome with a benevolent aligned AI, then the singularity will be a good thing for all humans. I've never seen it suggested that any individual or group in particular has anything to fear. It's implied that the benefits of the singularity will be relatively evenly distributed.
If that's the case, and AI is going to lead us to a utopia... why does it matter if China gets there first? The benevolent robot god is still going to lead humanity to the land of milk and honey either way, regardless of whether it happens to be built in the US or China, so why does it matter if China eclipses the US in AI development?
Or is the singularity not actually going to be evenly distributed? If China builds ASI first, are they just going to genocide the rest of the world outside of China, and then have fun until the heat death of the universe with the robot god? Why restrict ourselves to just analyzing things at the country level? Shouldn't we be equally worried about Sam Altman genociding everyone he doesn't like if OpenAI are the first ones to get to ASI? I don't know what the sequence of events is supposed to look like here.
The constant refrains of "we can't fall behind China" make AI sound a lot closer to a conventional weapon of war, rather than the pure unadulterated good that AI advocates want to present it as, which is all the more reason that it should be tightly regulated, in a proper international framework.
I also find the "WHAT IF CHINA/RUSSIA/ETC. GET THERE FIRST?" arguments extremely silly.
With a the exception of a tiny number of particularly unhinged sadistic psychopaths (the number is probably roughly epsilon), the vast vast majority of people are going to press the "create paradise" button not something so parochial as the "make my country hegemonic forever" or the "kill all the ethnic group I don't like" button. Even people who are, right now, merciless hardnosed Machiavellians would press the paradise button since they could do so without any trade-off for themselves or their in-group.
No, I'm pretty sure that if Putin didn't make Russia into anything more than a shithole for his cronies to feed on during a whole generation of his uninterrupted power, he also won't create a paradise with an AGI button. This is a genuine value difference. Some people don't value goodness, except for themselves and their loved ones.
And I think most machiavellians of Putin's caliber are not much better.
«About 1.2% of U.S. adult men and 0.3% to 0.7% of U.S. adult women are considered to have clinically significant levels of psychopathic traits».
You sure? It's not like he'd have anything to lose. Creating a paradise for everyone wouldn't detract from the slice of paradise available to Putin and his buddies. Would he really decline out of sheer spite?
But it has to be a special kind of psychopath. Psychopathy only implies a lack of empathy and an antisocial personality. Such a person might deny paradise for others for personal gain, but they would have no reason to do so out of sheer spite, unless they were also particularly sadistic psychopaths.
Yes I'm sure. Technically it would incur some opportunity cost (that most would say a singleton should ignore, although I'd argue that an ambitious singleton may still find the cost intolerable). More importantly he doesn't seem to be able to contemplate such relationships. He's not just a Machiavellian psychopath but, first and foremost, a rat, suspicious and hateful of others. It's not only spite, it's a hard prior: sharing with people not in your family (or mafia) is expensive and gives them dangerous capabilities to harm you.
Real people are not rational economic agents – not only in the positive sense (having morals) or neutral sense (having cognitive biases and weird beliefs), but negatively too (willing to do net-negative things for no personal gain). He would not reason «hurr durr I'm evil I will crush those peasants even though it provides me no benefit» – he'd a priori distrust and reject the analysis that says that sharing paradise with peasants is cost-free. They could always revolt or something, and they'll be eating his resources, resources he could put to better use… It's just unpleasant. And this is a not so rare an attitude. Imagine the most stiff-necked, work-obsessed American Puritan from this forum, looking at junkies at the streets of SF. This is the merest shade of the contempt one can feel for non-productive people.
This is not purely hypothetical. Just one example: Russia (pop. 147m including Crimea) has 17 million square kilometers of territory. Much of that, even livable parts, is very sparsely used or effectively uninhabited. Once, there was an initiative to stimulate economic activity and improve the real estate situation etc. with granting people large plots of land. By the time it was approved, it was downscaled to no more than 1 hectare (0.01 sq. km) per applicant on the Far East (area ≈7 million, pop. ≈8 million and falling), located at least 10 km away from towns over 50k and 20 km away from towns of 300+k, so effectively in wild boreal forest, in groups no more than 10 people (so, you are capped at 0.1 km^2 for your project), and with certain onerous rules of use (to begin with, you have to prove you're developing it over the first 5 years, lest it be taken away, and making it your actual property is not straightforward). Russian Far East… isn't very paradisiacal. It was not just affordable but very lucrative for them to offer Russians better terms. Still they didn't, so basically nobody bothered with the program. Lose-lose. (Hilariously, they've dedicated over 1.4m kilometers in the first round of the project – a hectare per Russian).
(At the same time, entire swathes of the region are leased for pittance to China.)
Speaking of paradise, Krylov:
Do you think this psychology allows for your do-gooder decisionmaking?
I also recommend watching Expelled from Paradise on a similar topic.
This comment has made me think a bit harder about my assumptions. Perhaps such a spiteful disposition is more common than I had previously believed.
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Where the hell does this distrust of breakaways come from? Has it really always been this way with Russians, or is this more an occasional tendency that sometimes flares up to imperial degrees?
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In comparison, Canada gave out 160 acres (65 ha) of land per household via its Dominion Lands Act, out of which you had to cultivate a quarter and build a permanent dwelling on it in three years. That's sixteen times more land if you use a replacement-level family of four as your benchmark. And you could double your homestead after you improved your original plot enough, giving you 320 acres (130 ha). They also had an exclusion zone around railways, but realized it made the program much less attractive and got rid of it.
4401,2 thousand ha of farmland lay fallow in Russia in 2020. That's 27 507 Canadian-style plots they could have given away, about half of them in praire-like conditions of Siberia. What's worse, there was 36256,3 ha of farmland that was technically not fallow but wasn't worked by its owners. I could buy 3200 ha of farmland in Hakassija for the price of a gaming PC if I wanted, why would I ever be interested in a single hectare in the middle of nowhere?
What's the catch ? Climate's not good for farming there ?
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