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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   28413 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 29, 2023

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Just because liberals have always feared the emergence of a competent demagogue doesn’t mean populist voters have yearned for it to the same degree. How much of his base did Trump lose after failing to build that wall on the Mexican border?

As far as voters are concerned, he lost none. He only lost people whose opinions do not matter anymore (like Ann Coulter). Either DeSantis or Trump stands a good shot against Biden, and there will be no defection if either loses the primary; Trump supporters will vote for DeSantis and vice versa. Attacking Biden on wokeness and inflation is an easy path for either of them for victory. Immigration and swamp draining is not as important now as it was in 2014-2017. I think DeSantis is slightly better because he has better odds of winning Florida.

desantis voters will vote trump because they would vote trump without desantis

the support of mcconnell, romney, jeb! et al. is toxic. a meaningful amount of trump support comes from whole-establishment hatred of him. in the event desantis gets the '24 nom he will be unable to draw on that support unless he heel-faces by torching establishment GOP.

desantis' manner and deed of pursuing the presidency prompts questions about his place in the GOP shift. as causing them to adopt certain populist positions or if they were already shifting, florida was a test, and he was just the lucky stooge. trump's 2016 win and 2020 turnout was enough for the GOP to change and the former implies contempt for the same old establishment desantis now gladly aligns with. priors go on the latter.

t. irrelevant demo

I think that there is road for desantis. He just need to look sincere in owning the Libs and Trump people will vote for him.

Trump will depend a lot on the Dems. They need to scare me enough to pull the lever. 2020 was close but we also had summer riots.

I could see myself abstaining on POTUS with Trump and voting straight GOP. Split power usually keeps excess spending in check. And would open the door better for Desantis in 2028.

That being said the Dems probably will find a way to get me to vote for Trump. POTUS years always seem to be blm riot years.

but we also had summer riots.

...and rampant cheating. one might almost call the 2020 election "stolen".

Planning to riot if you lose isn’t cheating, it’s one of the oldest democratic traditions.

And that's the reason we call ourselves "republicans", I'm not talking about the rioters.

I am not sure that there is an easy path for any Republican to victory. Incumbent presidents have only lost 10 times in the history of the country, whereas 21 incumbent presidents have served a second term. Probably a lot will depend on how the economy is doing next year.

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