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Since my 'don't trust Science' threads were already toeing the line between 'Pepe Silvia!' and schizophrenic (fair!) (I didn't even touch the four-part follow-up), Nate Silver summarizes better than I can :
((Silver's links carry the touchstones of conspiracy paranoia, like an emphasis on coverups and literally-by-the-minute analysis of claimed coordinated action, which would normally discourage me from pointing to them, except they also happen to be reasonable factual descriptions.))
To be clear, this isn't a case of some barely-related scientists from nearby offices in slightly-related fields being somewhat more open-minded. These documents demonstrate each and every single author of the paper held some of the exact same concerns about the proposed wet market origin as piles of shitposters and too-online dogs, often pointing to the exact same evidence... privately. In public, they named opponents giving these possibilities conspiracy theorists for naming options they were accepting privately, or drawing out a web that actually existed. Jeremy Farrar would send e-mails giving 50:50 odds on natural (and non-natural, mostly serial passage) origins at the same day he was shopping around early drafts of the paper; while he isn't on the author list, that's its own mess. To be fair, they do change positions in private, as information comes around and as debate occurred. But they remain far from as convinced as they pretended in public, not just during publication but months later, and it's exceptionally clear that the political and pragmatic ramifications drive that.
Nor was this filled with caveats and used or intended to be used solely as a small opinion piece. It contains a few limited cautions about available data's ability to discriminate from evolution at the wet market from cryptic adaptation among humans, but serial passage was actively dismissed by an incoherent mush that steps from animal models to purely in vitro considerations. The paper's authors and 'unrelated' academics (who had been heavily involved in discussions with the paper's authors behind closed doors) cited this not-a-paper at length to justify treating anyone even considering the possibility of just serial passage or an accidental lab leak to be a conspiracy theory that must be shut down, all the way from casual shitposters to federal politicians, including those who advocated specifically serial passage or a purely transport-focused accident. These private messages make clear that wasn't some unintentional side effect, but a if not the specific goal.
Nor was this limited to the broadest strokes: at best, these otherwise closely-knit scientists did mention important information not widely available to random shitposters to each other, such as the rarity of live pangolin trafficking, or the animal makeup of the wet market's official shipments, or a variety of information about possible serial passage techniques, all of which were carefully excluded from the final paper. Some writers received confidential notice of discovery of RmYNO2, and after finding that it wasn't itself more helpful to their point than other already-known genomes, decided to instead obliquely reference it as possible to make a 'prediction', because the Texas Sharpshooter's approach would have been too on the nose.
And that's the stuff that came through FOIA-able emails or broad and leakable Slack channels. The messages show many people involved transitioning to private e-mails, to phone calls, to unrecorded Zoom meetings, often dropping to very clipped wording during that transition: they knew this could eventually be public, and they knew other conversations would not.
None of this amounts, as many COVID skeptics are calling it, to research fraud; I'm not even sure it fits most definitions of academic misconduct. But that's mostly because the publication didn't have enough numbers or analysis to need to actively lie: this paper has no pixels to check for signs of photoshopping, nor specific population numbers to hit with GRIM. Silver has joined calls to retract the paper, but Nature's staff have already said that "Neither previous out-of-context remarks by the authors nor disagreements with the authors’ stated views, are, on their own, grounds for retraction." It ain't happening.
Silver proposes that the scientists were motivated by some combination of :
These aren't exactly the most charitable framings for each possibility, if perhaps more charitable than focusing on Anderson's certainty this paper got him tenure. But with a more forgiving description, I get something along the lines of :
Perhaps @Chrisprattalpharaptor can do better. But even if these somewhat earnest reasons that business or political tribe might have controlled what these scientists were willing to say publicly, or if there was some more noble cause that they held above providing an accurate model of the world, it's still something other than providing an accurate model of the world. Which is what, supposedly, was their job.
Worse, few of these matters stop here. Trivially, a lot of academics and casual observers are saying that even if the Nature op-ed authors were playing fast-and-loose with the facts at the time, we since have a ton of evidence in favor the wet market/natural origin side and very little recently published in favor of serial passage or any intentional manipulation, and normally drawing big charts claiming almost all the experts in a field were conspiracy to hide The Truth would be the sorta thing you do shortly before the nice men give you a coat with extra-long sleeves and take you to get some anti-psychotics. Except all of the above.
I wonder when Nate Silver will be labeled far right the way he is going ... his insistence of following facts is quickly turning him into apostate. Colbert in 2006 joked that reality has a well known liberal bias. How tables have turned.
For the revelations - it was obvious even at the time.
These same people think reality’s socially constructed.
Oh, really? Who would that be?
How many would you like me to direct you to? I have a character limit here. The whole mainstream progressive wing of the left, including mainstream punditry. The liberal stranglehold over the whole Ivy League. Most people living in deeply blue state’s, with ties to the Democratic Party. What are you looking for? Lol.
Your conduct throughout this thread has been pretty belligerent, condescending, and full of sneering, but this one stands out for the obnoxious "Lol" at the end, so this is the one I'm attaching a warning to. Calm down and be less antagonistic.
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I was hoping you’d have a smoking gun of Colbert saying reality was “socially constructed.”
I’ll settle for any major politician or pundit saying that. I don’t believe it’s actually a common sentiment. Not among people who’ve worked a non-advocacy job.
It being dead center at the heart of woke ideology is good enough for me. But if that doesn’t do it for people, I suppose virtually nothing will. That has been obvious now for over a decade.
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While she does not say, "I am a strict constructivist", I think this clip of Kentanji Brown-Jackson makes it clear that she adheres strongly to constructivism. It's also possible that she's simply lying to avoid question, but her mannerisms and verbiage are consistent with a sincere belief that "woman" isn't really something that one could define based on their perception of the world, but strictly requires additional context.
That’s a pretty good point. I should have thought about the legal profession.
I have a sense that some jobs—activists, blog-journalists, certain academics—have postmodernism in the job description. Law feels like it’s in that category. I want to discount them, but in the interest of not moving the goalposts, I guess I’m convinced.
As a lawyer I can confirm, but there's nothing inherently right-wing or left-wing about any of it. I have a deposition tomorrow where I'm going to ask some poor retiree about 500 questions, the vast majority of which I know he doesn't know the answer to and that he knows I couldn't possibly think he knows the answer to. I'm going to ask him for specific details about pieces of insustrial machinery he says he worked with in the 1970s. For instance, if he brings up a particular brand of industrial compressor I'm going to ask him when the first time he saw the brand was, how he was able to identify the brand, when the last time he saw it was, how many of that brand were in the facility, what each one he remembered specificly did, if he associated it with any particular color, detailed description of what it looked like, how it worked, what it was used for. And if he has the misfortune of actually being able to answer any of these questions in the affirmative then it will only lead to more questions pushing for more specifics. But I need to do this because whenever I go into negotiations with opposing counsel I can't just assume he doesn't know all of this (it's good for my client that he doesn't know), because if I do opposing counsel will ask to see where on the record it is that he says he doesn't know and now I don't have as much negotiating power. Every detail matters, every term must be defined, every hair must be split. If I don't do all that it's a disservice to my client.
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Do you think if you asked Joe Biden “what is a woman” that he would say a biological woman or “someone who identifies as a woman?” Biden might fuck up the answer but still.
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