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non_radical_centrist  8mo ago (astralcodexten.com)   2076 thread views

Book Review: Elon Musk[Scott Alexander]

astralcodexten.com

Scott Alexander’s review of a 2015 biography of Elon Musk. Elon Musk, to me, is one of the world’s most confusing people. He’s simultaneously both one of the smartest people in the world, creating billions of dollars of value in companies like Tesla and SpaceX, and one of the dumbest, in burning billions on Twitter. Scott’s review I think is a good explanation of what’s up with Musk.

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On twitter I have seen the likes of Cernovich and others claim Elon is among the smartest people on earth, if not the smartest. He's smart, no doubt, but to be among the smartest would put him in the company of Fields Medalists, math Olympiad and Putnam winners, math and physics doctorates, etc. Possible but very improbable, imho. He's smart but not that smart. He benefited from luck and good business savvy and intuition about markets, all necessary ingredients for business success. The Twitter Blue verification system did not stop spam, as I and others correctly predicted (when scammers can make $1000s in a day , how is $8 a deterrent). Maybe he was not smart enough to see that, or he did not care.

Is Elon smart? Let us check what people behind Oryx list think about it.

Elon is smart but doesn't know when to shut up.

(original Oryx is giving up, this Czech guy is now the boss of this project)

Well, is he right? Is it smart to pick so many fights at once, not only with ADL over free speech, but also with Pentagon and the deep state over Ukraine?

Why would anyone take the opinion of some random Czechs on this, who don't even grace us with reasons in their one-line argument? Oryx doesn't/didn't even do their own job too well, their methodology is dubious at best: https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1508660640755331073#m

Their methods and their numbers are good enough for Pentagon, the unfortunate leaks showed that Pentagon uses Oryx data.

Belllingcat and Oryx are anything but "random internet people".

Bellingcat is bankrolled by the National Endowment for Democracy, Atlantic Council and the usual suspects. They're squarely deep-state people and will find evidence for whatever is most desirable for that faction.

Anyway, if the Pentagon is using Oryx data then so much the worse for the Pentagon. In addition to leaking like a sieve, failing to meet their plummeting recruitment goals and losing their long and expensive tragifarce wars, they have bad, outsourced intelligence as well! Maybe that's why they egged on Ukraine to attack into a powerful Russian defensive belt without air superiority... If the Russian army truly has been bled dry then what could stop them?

In reality, the Russians have more missiles, more artillery, more heavy weapons and airpower and thus enjoy favourable kill-loss ratios. This is why the Ukrainians have been so desperate to draft more troops - why they tried to draft a man with no hands, why the internet is full of videos of Ukrainian men being wrestled and handcuffed on the street so they can be drafted.

Anyway, if the Pentagon is using Oryx data then so much the worse for the Pentagon.

Yes, both sides of this farce are simian, to use elite human capital expression. US and whole NATO are unable to supply Ukraine with such basic stuff as artillery shells - after 20 months. For comparison, in the time of world wars, 20 days would be enough to begin mass production of ammunition, starting from empty field.

In reality, the Russians have more missiles, more artillery, more heavy weapons and airpower and thus enjoy favourable kill-loss ratios.

There are people, on both sides, who are calculating the human losses using open sources (official announcements, obituaries, memorials, new graves), but this is far trickier than counting burned out vehicles.

US and whole NATO are unable to supply Ukraine with such basic stuff as artillery shells - after 20 months

"Unable"? The shells would be there in 24 hours if the order was given by Biden to get them there. If something different happens, it's not the lack of ability, it's the lack of willingness to do that.

For comparison, in the time of world wars, 20 days would be enough to begin mass production of ammunition, starting from empty field.

I'd like to see a proof of any factory producing anything reminding modern artillery ammunition created from an empty field in 20 days. I also assume the metal, chemicals, machinery, trained workers and supply lines for both incoming materials and the product will have to come from the empty field in the same 20 days?

"Unable"? The shells would be there in 24 hours if the order was given by Biden to get them there. If something different happens, it's not the lack of ability, it's the lack of willingness to do that.

No, he cannot, because the industry necessary to provide them does not exist in NATO countries, and nothing had been done to build up this capacity since 2022.

Well, US promises to increase production to 100,000 shells per month ... by 2025.

By world war standards, it is one big unfunny joke.

I'd like to see a proof of any factory producing anything reminding modern artillery ammunition

Nothing "modern" about artillery shell production.

created from an empty field in 20 days. I also assume the metal, chemicals, machinery, trained workers and supply lines for both incoming materials and the product will have to come from the empty field in the same 20 days?

metal, chemicals, machinery

Modern world industrial production and logistical capacity is at least by magnitude higher than during WW2 time, all these things can be ordered online (from China, through intermediaries if you do not want to raise suspicion) unlike in these times.

trained workers

We are talking about classical industrial mass production, that could operate with minimaly skilled workers freshly arriving from farms and villages.

supply lines

Enough places near sea port or rail line, no need for WWII style heroic building achievements

in the same 20 days?

This is not even slight exaggeration of things that were routinely done in the past.

edit: links fixed

Nothing "modern" about artillery shell production.

So, you are saying the West does not have any manufacturing capacity to produce something what doesn't even require any modern technology? This is a very sharp contradiction with everything I can observe, where the West is producing a lot of things right now. Of course, there's an obvious solution to this contradiction - the capacity of the Western economy and manufacturing power vastly exceeds the necessary one to produce any number of shells. But nobody wants to direct all that capacity to producing shells for Ukraine, because that would mean withdrawing the capacity from other products, and consequent troubles in the areas of economy that currently use that capacity. US does not want to be on WW2 war economy footing just because Ukraine needs shells. I think it is much more plausible explanation than your suggestion that there's no way to produce more than 100k shells by 2025 in the US. There is, but the US does not want to do it, because any politician that would propose it would be thrown out in the next election, or maybe recalled even before that.

Modern world industrial production and logistical capacity is at least by magnitude higher than during WW2 time, all these things can be ordered online

Wait, so you are claiming the West can't produce any sizeable amount of shells, but all the necessary components for producing any sizeable amount of shells can be easily "ordered online" and deployed in 20 days? Are you not noticing how you are contradicting yourself? I don't even need to argue with you - you are doing it for me!

This is not even slight exaggeration of things that were routinely done in the past.

This wasn't a) routine b) building from empty field c) done in 20 days. The very article you are quoting states that the preparations begun in 1940 and the production started to increase in 1942. And that was building on existing industrial base - nobody evacuated the factories into empty fields, they were evacuated to existing industrial and population centers.

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