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Notes -
The ABC's called it: the Australian referendum to enshrine special Aboriginal representation in the Constitution has utterly failed. They needed a majority nationally and a majority in four of the six states; they've gotten at last count 41% (possibly less; pre-polls are counted last, and while I wasn't expecting it they seem to have more No than the on-the-day vote) of the national vote and have lost in all six of the states (again, I was expecting Tasmania and/or Victoria to buck the trend - Victoria being the most urbanised Australian state, with 75% of its population in the state capital of Melbourne, and Tasmania having a long tradition of hippie-ism and being the birthplace of the Greens; they were also polling the highest Yes).
Most of the Yes campaigners - at least, those the ABC talked to - seem to be going with the line of "the No campaign was misinformation and this doesn't count because they were tricked"*. That's wrong (there were a few people with crazy ideas, of course, but for the most part what the SJers are decrying as "misinformation" is true or plausible), but it's at least wrong about a dry fact and not nearly as divisive as going "this proves Australia's a racist country".
The result does seem to have emboldened people to actually stand up against SJ; Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was very hesitant to go with No (though he eventually did), but in his speech upon hearing the result he specifically said that this result was Australians rejecting activists' claims.
At-least-partial credit to @OliveTapenade, who said:
...the last time we discussed this on theMotte. They mostly seem to be leaning on "ignorant" rather than "racist", but yes, they're saying "this demonstrates need for Truth".
*NB: this doesn't, for the moment, include Prime Minister Anthony Albanese; all he's said on the matter of "why No" IIRC is that referenda never succeed without bipartisan support.
I have to wonder if this is going to end up like Irish referenda on social liberalisation (e.g. divorce); the pro- side argue each time that the loss doesn't represent the true views of the country, that there was misinformation and fear mongering and outside interference, and they're going to go again. Then eventually after a series of votes, where they finally get "yes" by a very slim majority - that's it. The people have spoken. No more referenda, this is now the law of the land, sorry "No" side you had your chance and don't get another chance to campaign (unlike us who got three or four goes to get the result we wanted).
I will be interested if the pro-Voice side push for another vote down the line in X months/year's time.
Is that actually what happened in Ireland? Or did support for the pro side grow over time, and then continue to grow even after they won the referendum, making campaigning for a reversal pointless? Considering the 2019 referendum to further reduce divorce requirements was a blowout with over 80% approval, I somehow don't see a reversal of the 1995 referendum as likely to win more than 10% of the vote.
My point is less about "did support grow" (yes, like the rest of the world, we were not unaffected by 'whiskey! democracy! sexy!') but that the side advocating for the change insisted after every reversal that they weren't going to stop campaigning until they got the result they wanted, and when they did get it, suddenly now no further votes were needed or wanted. Following figures pulled out of my backside but 'We lost by 60% to 40%, the struggle is not over" until "We won by 51% to 49%, that's it, this is now immutable unchangeable law and we don't need any further votes on this, and the No campaign can just go away".
That's in part why I am so rigid on "not an inch"; after abortion was legalised (to a limited extent in my country) all the public appeal about "well this is only for really hard cases and it will be limited and no it's not going to lead to abortion on demand" was dropped and the activist groups were quite clear, and publicly said so, "This is only the first step, we're going to continue until we get the liberalised abortion we want".
There is never any 'we only want this one small concession, why are you being so inhumane and heartless?'.
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