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The ABC's called it: the Australian referendum to enshrine special Aboriginal representation in the Constitution has utterly failed. They needed a majority nationally and a majority in four of the six states; they've gotten at last count 41% (possibly less; pre-polls are counted last, and while I wasn't expecting it they seem to have more No than the on-the-day vote) of the national vote and have lost in all six of the states (again, I was expecting Tasmania and/or Victoria to buck the trend - Victoria being the most urbanised Australian state, with 75% of its population in the state capital of Melbourne, and Tasmania having a long tradition of hippie-ism and being the birthplace of the Greens; they were also polling the highest Yes).
Most of the Yes campaigners - at least, those the ABC talked to - seem to be going with the line of "the No campaign was misinformation and this doesn't count because they were tricked"*. That's wrong (there were a few people with crazy ideas, of course, but for the most part what the SJers are decrying as "misinformation" is true or plausible), but it's at least wrong about a dry fact and not nearly as divisive as going "this proves Australia's a racist country".
The result does seem to have emboldened people to actually stand up against SJ; Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was very hesitant to go with No (though he eventually did), but in his speech upon hearing the result he specifically said that this result was Australians rejecting activists' claims.
At-least-partial credit to @OliveTapenade, who said:
...the last time we discussed this on theMotte. They mostly seem to be leaning on "ignorant" rather than "racist", but yes, they're saying "this demonstrates need for Truth".
*NB: this doesn't, for the moment, include Prime Minister Anthony Albanese; all he's said on the matter of "why No" IIRC is that referenda never succeed without bipartisan support.
I have to wonder if this is going to end up like Irish referenda on social liberalisation (e.g. divorce); the pro- side argue each time that the loss doesn't represent the true views of the country, that there was misinformation and fear mongering and outside interference, and they're going to go again. Then eventually after a series of votes, where they finally get "yes" by a very slim majority - that's it. The people have spoken. No more referenda, this is now the law of the land, sorry "No" side you had your chance and don't get another chance to campaign (unlike us who got three or four goes to get the result we wanted).
I will be interested if the pro-Voice side push for another vote down the line in X months/year's time.
I think the Voice proposal is dead. It was a shitty idea, pushed more for "something must be done, this is something, therefore we must do it" reasons than genuine conviction I think. There will continue to be efforts to get treaties or whatever other idea comes along, but that's it for the Voice.
For comparison, the rejected Republic referendum back in the 90s really did kill the Republican movement. Even 25 years later, with the Queen having passed away, there is still no heat or energy behind the idea of getting rid of the monarchy.
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Is that actually what happened in Ireland? Or did support for the pro side grow over time, and then continue to grow even after they won the referendum, making campaigning for a reversal pointless? Considering the 2019 referendum to further reduce divorce requirements was a blowout with over 80% approval, I somehow don't see a reversal of the 1995 referendum as likely to win more than 10% of the vote.
My point is less about "did support grow" (yes, like the rest of the world, we were not unaffected by 'whiskey! democracy! sexy!') but that the side advocating for the change insisted after every reversal that they weren't going to stop campaigning until they got the result they wanted, and when they did get it, suddenly now no further votes were needed or wanted. Following figures pulled out of my backside but 'We lost by 60% to 40%, the struggle is not over" until "We won by 51% to 49%, that's it, this is now immutable unchangeable law and we don't need any further votes on this, and the No campaign can just go away".
That's in part why I am so rigid on "not an inch"; after abortion was legalised (to a limited extent in my country) all the public appeal about "well this is only for really hard cases and it will be limited and no it's not going to lead to abortion on demand" was dropped and the activist groups were quite clear, and publicly said so, "This is only the first step, we're going to continue until we get the liberalised abortion we want".
There is never any 'we only want this one small concession, why are you being so inhumane and heartless?'.
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Which referenda are you thinking of? Gay marriage passed in 2015 with a healthy majority (there was only one county in which the No vote achieved a majority), and abortion passed in a landslide in 2018.
Not to dispute the existence of the phenomenon you're describing. My uncle lives in the UK and is every inch the archetypal Guardian reader. He's been insisting for the last seven years that the Brexit referendum was illegitimate because of Russian interference/"misinformation"/whatever you're having yourself. Although I think the prospect of the UK campaigning to rejoin the EU is effectively nil.
Yeah, and both major parties supported it, which is a huge sea change in public opinion within my own lifetime. So the constant 'we are an oppressed minority living in a church-run society which is bigoted against us' script is quite plainly untrue, yet it keeps being pulled out whenever new changes are proposed.
Could not agree more.
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Albanese's said he respects the result and the will of the people; he's not going to try it again this term (trying it again would also pretty much guarantee that that 60% would vote against him come the next election, and I don't think he's that stupid).
Down the track, who knows. Do note that Australia is TTBOMK the only country to repeal a carbon tax, so our right does actually roll things back from time to time (even if I might not agree with that particular rollback).
I'm one of the more lunatic environmentalists on this site and I even supported rolling back the carbon tax. The carbon tax doesn't do anything to actually slow down the burning of carbon in any real way, it just gives a bunch of extremely rich people the ability to play financial games and suck some money from the public teat.
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Ultimately this is always the nature of the game with progressive causes; opposing them requires constant vigilance and to win every single conflict, while they only require one (quite possibly gamed and/or cheated) win, and then that's it, the ratchet has advanced and never shall it relent. Anyone who tries to roll things back is painted as a vile fascist dictator trying to remove 'human rights' (that didn't exist until 5 seconds ago).
This is possibly why the Supreme Court abortion thing hit progressives so hard, because this is never supposed to happen.
And why pro-life pregnancy centers receive so much ire. They are not exactly neutral institutions, but the vast majority of the things they do seem to be genuinely charitable(eg providing diapers to poor mothers), whether or not you think the state should be subsidizing them. It’s simply that pretending partisan advocacy NGO’s are just basic charity organizations and the only reason to ever oppose them is because you’re evil and hate whatever charitable work they supposedly do is only supposed to work in one direction.
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Honestly I don't believe this entirely. The issue of try-try-try again-pass is real yes, but as Brexit shows it's an advantage inherent to the "Anti-Status-Quo" stance rather than inherently an advantage for progressives.
The problem is that conservatives believe you can just rest on your laurels and do nothing whatsoever to uphold your beliefs beyond voting, while progressives understand that to win you have to fight for your beliefs every single day. If conservatives tried half as hard to ban gay marriage as the progressives did to legalize it, it would be illegal.
Progressives collectively throw hundreds of billions of dollars towards their social goals, have numerous people whose entire lives and careers are dedicated to furthering the cause (many of whom abandoned more profitable avenues to do so) and have millions more who make art, put the values into their work, make public displays of loyalty, etc. Conservatives aren't even in the same ballpark of effort and commitment.
The sole exception would of course be Christian Evangelicals, who do all the same things progressives do to to actually attempt to win. And would you look at that, they did in fact get Roe v Wade overturned! Turns out conservatives can win if they actually care and put their money where their mouth is!
What I'm trying to get at is that "well this vote shows the people do/don't want this thing" only applies to the "anti-" side of any proposal after the "pro" side get their victory. I understand this tactic, but I don't see how you can shift from "we don't agree with this result so we'll keep going till we get the one we want", to "this result is now written in stone and can never be challenged". Unless you don't care a whit about the charge of hypocrisy and can be certain the tame media will never apply it to you, but always and only to your opponents.
That's my takeaway on the whole abortion debate: "why can't both sides compromise?" Well, because for one side, 'compromise' means 'surrender your principles, give us what we want, but we won't give you anything in return'.
"Why don't you permit abortion for rape/incest/threat to life of mother?"
(1) You don't? Heartless monsters who hate women and want them to die! (2) You do? Okay, you've already given in on the permissibility of abortion, that means you have no principled objection, so why not give in on the other cases we want? If you don't, then you're a hypocrite!
"If you really thought abortion was murder, why aren't you bombing clinics/putting women who get abortions in jail/executing abortion doctors?"
(1) You don't? Ha ha, you hypocrites! So that means you're lying and you don't have any principled objection to abortion, you only hate women and want to punish them for their sexuality! (2) You do? You heartless monsters! You hate women and want to punish them for their sexuality!
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They can do this because it's other people's money. They've infiltrated corporate and government institutions and act as corrupt agents, turning them towards the goals of the left instead of the nominal goals of the organization.
Currently that is the case, and my only response is "Yes, and if Conservatives cared enough they'd be stealing our money to fund pet causes too."
But it wasn't always true. The early progressive movements were largely funded by progressives, progressive sympathizers, and donations by those who supported the associated causes. Conservatives could do the same, but they don't. An expected counterpoint would be the funds seized from the trucker protest but 1. That's not America, and 2. You have to actually put money towards building power structures (like the Federalist Society), not just in response to a single politically hot event.
The progressives aren't about to let the conservatives pull the same trick; now that they've done it, they've closed the door to conservatives doing it. Progressive organizations get to engage in conspiracies in restraint of trade with no one blinking an eye. Conservative organizations get the stink-eye from the IRS.
I don't entirely disagree with this, though I would say it occurred largely because conservatives didn't care enough about their own values to maintain them. They could have done what progressives are doing now, but failed to do so, and instead let sinful behavior take control of the most powerful state to ever exist.
The solution now is to find new tricks, new takeover methods, that the opponent doesn't see coming. It is a war after all. You can't just reuse the old methods identically, but there are consistently functional principles that are timeless.
And if no such things exist to be found?
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Sometimes the enemy just outclasses you.
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