naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
While I can imagine how Hamas was able to get multiple vehicles across the border to Israel, it baffles me that they could take hostages and somehow just drive back. When a sensitive border like that is penetrated, shouldn't there be a 3 alarm fire type of response?
Like, if I was a Hamas gunman, I wouldn't expect to be returning home. Perhaps there is a special strategy for the hostage takers? How are we characterizing the border breach, and for how long did it remain unsecured?
Some theories that I have read but cannot vouch for and might well be false:
Early on in the offensive, Hamas attacked some of the very Israeli units that would have been responsible for containing them, catching them by surprise and doing enough damage to render those units incapable of interfering.
Israeli units in the area were understaffed because of people being on leave for religious celebrations and possibly also recent domestic Israeli political disputes that were causing tensions between the army and the Netanyahu administration.
Some units that had previously been in southern Israel had been redeployed to the West Bank to support Jewish settlers there.
Put together, all this suggests that there simply weren't enough Israeli military forces around Gaza at the time and they were not prepared enough to be able to stop Hamas. And for some reason the Israelis did not manage to redeploy units from elsewhere as fast as many would have expected them to. As for why that would be the case, I don't know, but military affairs are full of clusterfucks. The Israelis have a very competent and professional military, but it is not the superhuman force that some people imagine them to be. The 2006 war in south Lebanon already showed as much.
The long border with Israel is about 25 miles, the length of the overall strip. Was the short border (closest to Tel Aviv) breached? Total border is 32 miles.
Surely they could dispatch the equivalent of 5 SWAT teams to run the border within an hour or two.
I am sure they have realtime satellite surveillance as well as tripwires, cameras, and other detection mechanisms. The level of incompetence on display suggests they tacitly allowed this to happen for the sake of casus belli.
Apparently something like 1500 Palestinian bodies have been collected within Israel, which suggests the numbers of attackers were much higher. If we guess a 10% casualty rate, that's 15,000 militants that took part in the raid. Adjust the numbers as you like, but it seems very likely to me that 5 SWAT teams would not have been nearly enough.
I don't disagree. They could have been overwhelmed in a full engagement, but recon is a thing. Run the border, run away, report back, and engage when advantageous. I'm thinking about a SWAT team as multiple vehicles and maybe 20 personnel.
Maybe this stuff was going on, but only the Israelis know.
I find it extremely likely that some portion of Israeli MIC, deep state, and government knew in advance and chose to let it happen (albeit they might not have thought it would be this bad!) for classic wag-the-dog purposes. Just a month ago front page global newspaper headlines talking about Israeli reservists resigning to protest right wing process changes in Israeli government; now political crisis over society united and swinging towards the nationalist war party.
We are characterizing it as massive. Israel got caught with its pants down this time. You should check out some of the videos on odysee. They were literally driving convoys of flatbed trucks through destroyed walls.
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Notes -
While I can imagine how Hamas was able to get multiple vehicles across the border to Israel, it baffles me that they could take hostages and somehow just drive back. When a sensitive border like that is penetrated, shouldn't there be a 3 alarm fire type of response?
Like, if I was a Hamas gunman, I wouldn't expect to be returning home. Perhaps there is a special strategy for the hostage takers? How are we characterizing the border breach, and for how long did it remain unsecured?
Some theories that I have read but cannot vouch for and might well be false:
Early on in the offensive, Hamas attacked some of the very Israeli units that would have been responsible for containing them, catching them by surprise and doing enough damage to render those units incapable of interfering.
Israeli units in the area were understaffed because of people being on leave for religious celebrations and possibly also recent domestic Israeli political disputes that were causing tensions between the army and the Netanyahu administration.
Some units that had previously been in southern Israel had been redeployed to the West Bank to support Jewish settlers there.
Put together, all this suggests that there simply weren't enough Israeli military forces around Gaza at the time and they were not prepared enough to be able to stop Hamas. And for some reason the Israelis did not manage to redeploy units from elsewhere as fast as many would have expected them to. As for why that would be the case, I don't know, but military affairs are full of clusterfucks. The Israelis have a very competent and professional military, but it is not the superhuman force that some people imagine them to be. The 2006 war in south Lebanon already showed as much.
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The Gaza border is 40 miles. it's not like troops can be mobiled that fast or are surveilling every possible part.
The long border with Israel is about 25 miles, the length of the overall strip. Was the short border (closest to Tel Aviv) breached? Total border is 32 miles.
Surely they could dispatch the equivalent of 5 SWAT teams to run the border within an hour or two.
I am sure they have realtime satellite surveillance as well as tripwires, cameras, and other detection mechanisms. The level of incompetence on display suggests they tacitly allowed this to happen for the sake of casus belli.
Apparently something like 1500 Palestinian bodies have been collected within Israel, which suggests the numbers of attackers were much higher. If we guess a 10% casualty rate, that's 15,000 militants that took part in the raid. Adjust the numbers as you like, but it seems very likely to me that 5 SWAT teams would not have been nearly enough.
I don't disagree. They could have been overwhelmed in a full engagement, but recon is a thing. Run the border, run away, report back, and engage when advantageous. I'm thinking about a SWAT team as multiple vehicles and maybe 20 personnel.
Maybe this stuff was going on, but only the Israelis know.
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I find it extremely likely that some portion of Israeli MIC, deep state, and government knew in advance and chose to let it happen (albeit they might not have thought it would be this bad!) for classic wag-the-dog purposes. Just a month ago front page global newspaper headlines talking about Israeli reservists resigning to protest right wing process changes in Israeli government; now political crisis over society united and swinging towards the nationalist war party.
More options
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We are characterizing it as massive. Israel got caught with its pants down this time. You should check out some of the videos on odysee. They were literally driving convoys of flatbed trucks through destroyed walls.
I've seen people cycling through. Like literal push pedal cycles.
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