naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
To some extent I feel this is the only really interesting bit of this episode. And it does feel to me like there is another shoe to drop in the plan.
Butcher civilians and especially a bunch of good looking young females = Israel goes Old Testament on Gaza = ?????
The first Israel response seems an obvious second step in this event.
If Hamas had no foreign help then one could argue they hoped that Hezbolla and Iran would all jump into the fight. Hezbolla seems reluctant since who wants to jump into Old Testament wrath and Iran leader has strongly denied any involvement.
This play is lacking Act 3. Which would make sense if Hamas was hoping for Act 3 but didn’t plan with outside parties. The other alternative would be that Israel hasn’t done something too far to bring in Act 3 Casus Belli yet.
So far the only Act 3 has been some dumb Harvard students. Which basically helps Israel by outing some people that would support Palestine for punishment in the west (no jobs for those Harvard kids). It likely increased Trumps likelihood of being elected perhaps even pulling in some Jewish votes since he’s solid Israel.
I’ve upgraded this attack to truly a September 11 type event. Which helps Israel because it means they get to take the gloves off for the Old Testament Retribution. US had about 6-12 months of do wtf you want to global support.
Imagine we were in a small French town in the 700s that just suffered from a viking attack. Women and girls raped, the priest has been beheaded and the church looted, etc, etc. Imagine someone surveying the carnage and asking "But what larger strategic goal does this serve for the northmen?"
This is the goal. This is the point. People try too hard to imagine large strategies and 3D chess.
I agree it's not complicated, but I don't believe the Viking analogy holds.
The Vikings were there for loot. Simple as. They might have enjoyed killing monks and raping nuns, but that's not what got them to sail across the North Sea in a tiny boat.
The Palestinians aren't looting Israel. The foot soldiers are there out of pure hate. And the leaders are playing from the standard terrorist playbook.
Commit atrocity
Provoke larger atrocity from enemies
Win powerful allies to defeat enemy
This is their strategy. Their strategy sucks. It's not going to work. Peaceful mass resistance would work a lot better. Imagine unarmed Palestinians being shot as they climb the border wall to try to "immigrate to a better life in Israel". That's a message that would play well in the current zeitgeist.
In a world where a lot of financial and material support for the vilings relies on a large portion of the world not thinking they're the baddies, taking into account the larger strategic goal (or blunder) does in fact make sense.
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Notes -
Which aspects of what happened were intentionally part of the plan?
To some extent I feel this is the only really interesting bit of this episode. And it does feel to me like there is another shoe to drop in the plan.
Butcher civilians and especially a bunch of good looking young females = Israel goes Old Testament on Gaza = ?????
The first Israel response seems an obvious second step in this event.
If Hamas had no foreign help then one could argue they hoped that Hezbolla and Iran would all jump into the fight. Hezbolla seems reluctant since who wants to jump into Old Testament wrath and Iran leader has strongly denied any involvement.
This play is lacking Act 3. Which would make sense if Hamas was hoping for Act 3 but didn’t plan with outside parties. The other alternative would be that Israel hasn’t done something too far to bring in Act 3 Casus Belli yet.
So far the only Act 3 has been some dumb Harvard students. Which basically helps Israel by outing some people that would support Palestine for punishment in the west (no jobs for those Harvard kids). It likely increased Trumps likelihood of being elected perhaps even pulling in some Jewish votes since he’s solid Israel.
I’ve upgraded this attack to truly a September 11 type event. Which helps Israel because it means they get to take the gloves off for the Old Testament Retribution. US had about 6-12 months of do wtf you want to global support.
Imagine we were in a small French town in the 700s that just suffered from a viking attack. Women and girls raped, the priest has been beheaded and the church looted, etc, etc. Imagine someone surveying the carnage and asking "But what larger strategic goal does this serve for the northmen?"
This is the goal. This is the point. People try too hard to imagine large strategies and 3D chess.
I agree it's not complicated, but I don't believe the Viking analogy holds.
The Vikings were there for loot. Simple as. They might have enjoyed killing monks and raping nuns, but that's not what got them to sail across the North Sea in a tiny boat.
The Palestinians aren't looting Israel. The foot soldiers are there out of pure hate. And the leaders are playing from the standard terrorist playbook.
This is their strategy. Their strategy sucks. It's not going to work. Peaceful mass resistance would work a lot better. Imagine unarmed Palestinians being shot as they climb the border wall to try to "immigrate to a better life in Israel". That's a message that would play well in the current zeitgeist.
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In a world where a lot of financial and material support for the vilings relies on a large portion of the world not thinking they're the baddies, taking into account the larger strategic goal (or blunder) does in fact make sense.
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