naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
NEW: The Biden administration has privately been pressing Israel in recent days to flush out what its strategy is for the day after it completes its stated goal of eradicating Hamas in the ongoing Gaza war, a US and an Israeli official tell [The Times of Israel]
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle have indicated to their Biden counterparts that Israel has not yet come up with such a strategy and instead are more focused on the immediate goal of removing Hamas from power in Gaza, the US official says. (2/4)
But the US official cautions against this approach, saying that devoid a strategy for who will control the Strip if and when Hamas is removed, IDF is more likely to get bogged down in Gaza indefinitely, despite Israel insisting that it does not want to re-occupy the enclave (3/4)
[] National Unity chair Benny Gantz and fellow faction member Gadi Eisenkot demanded the creation of a Gaza exit strategy a upon their entry into the government and that they have tasked a committee with drawing one up. (4/4)
Speculation abounds that this indicates that US intelligence is finding out that things are much worse in Gaza than we realize. There is very little information coming out of Gaza right now. Journalism seems to be dead, it's a black box in there, and whatever reports we get later are going to be urban myths.
I wonder what all this will amount to. I doubt this will achieve any credibility with the Arab world for saving Arab lives, even if it works to do just that. If it doesn't work, no one in Israel will remember Blinken's advice when they're trapped in the quagmire.
This reminds me of the Afghanistan War, which I've long thought was big mistake, by which I don't just mean we shouldn't have tried to overthrow the Taliban and turn the country into a modern liberal democracy. I mean we shouldn't have invaded at all. The US have just accepted that the occasional terrorist attack of that magnitude is actually not that big a deal.
Hamas' attack was proportionally far worse, but still, even if they could remove Hamas, even if it didn't get replaced with something worse, and even if they didn't inspire more terrorism from other Arabs, it's hard to see how the amount of destruction is worth it. Why not just improve security so that it doesn't happen again? It sounds cliché but I think it's true: the reaction is what they wanted.
Generally, my impression, like many others', is that the Israelis seem far less genocidal towards the Palestinians than vice versa, but that has been much less true in the last week. Many Israelis, especially those in power, seem utterly unconcerned with the welfare of Palestinians generally.
They don't seem to have a plan and this war may turn out to be much difficult than Afghanistan. I think they're acting irrationally out of anger, just like Americans did immediately after the September 11th attacks. I'm surprised how little weight has been given to what I thought were the lessons of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.
The risk is that if they do nothing and keep beefing up defenses, eventually Hamas comes up with something the defenses can’t stand and commits a colossal attack (bigger than last saturday’s) or even threatens Israel’s existence in some way.
Destroying Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was probably the right move for the US.
How, exactly, are they supposed to destroy Israel? This is not a very organized group and it really looked like the Saturday attack was basically everything they can muster.
Unless they get their hands on a nuke or something, I just don’t see it(and even then, they can’t build a reliable delivery mechanism, and Iran is probably not willing to give them one because they’re crazy).
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Notes -
Reports emerging that the USA is "pressuring" Israel to have a fully developed exit plan before invading Gaza to which Netanyahu presumably replied "Leeeeeroooooy Jeeeeenkiiiiiiins."
Meanwhile Blinken has reportedly been meeting with the Israelis for 8 hours.
Speculation abounds that this indicates that US intelligence is finding out that things are much worse in Gaza than we realize. There is very little information coming out of Gaza right now. Journalism seems to be dead, it's a black box in there, and whatever reports we get later are going to be urban myths.
I wonder what all this will amount to. I doubt this will achieve any credibility with the Arab world for saving Arab lives, even if it works to do just that. If it doesn't work, no one in Israel will remember Blinken's advice when they're trapped in the quagmire.
This reminds me of the Afghanistan War, which I've long thought was big mistake, by which I don't just mean we shouldn't have tried to overthrow the Taliban and turn the country into a modern liberal democracy. I mean we shouldn't have invaded at all. The US have just accepted that the occasional terrorist attack of that magnitude is actually not that big a deal.
Hamas' attack was proportionally far worse, but still, even if they could remove Hamas, even if it didn't get replaced with something worse, and even if they didn't inspire more terrorism from other Arabs, it's hard to see how the amount of destruction is worth it. Why not just improve security so that it doesn't happen again? It sounds cliché but I think it's true: the reaction is what they wanted.
Generally, my impression, like many others', is that the Israelis seem far less genocidal towards the Palestinians than vice versa, but that has been much less true in the last week. Many Israelis, especially those in power, seem utterly unconcerned with the welfare of Palestinians generally.
They don't seem to have a plan and this war may turn out to be much difficult than Afghanistan. I think they're acting irrationally out of anger, just like Americans did immediately after the September 11th attacks. I'm surprised how little weight has been given to what I thought were the lessons of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.
The risk is that if they do nothing and keep beefing up defenses, eventually Hamas comes up with something the defenses can’t stand and commits a colossal attack (bigger than last saturday’s) or even threatens Israel’s existence in some way.
Destroying Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was probably the right move for the US.
How, exactly, are they supposed to destroy Israel? This is not a very organized group and it really looked like the Saturday attack was basically everything they can muster.
Unless they get their hands on a nuke or something, I just don’t see it(and even then, they can’t build a reliable delivery mechanism, and Iran is probably not willing to give them one because they’re crazy).
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