naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
NEW: The Biden administration has privately been pressing Israel in recent days to flush out what its strategy is for the day after it completes its stated goal of eradicating Hamas in the ongoing Gaza war, a US and an Israeli official tell [The Times of Israel]
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle have indicated to their Biden counterparts that Israel has not yet come up with such a strategy and instead are more focused on the immediate goal of removing Hamas from power in Gaza, the US official says. (2/4)
But the US official cautions against this approach, saying that devoid a strategy for who will control the Strip if and when Hamas is removed, IDF is more likely to get bogged down in Gaza indefinitely, despite Israel insisting that it does not want to re-occupy the enclave (3/4)
[] National Unity chair Benny Gantz and fellow faction member Gadi Eisenkot demanded the creation of a Gaza exit strategy a upon their entry into the government and that they have tasked a committee with drawing one up. (4/4)
Speculation abounds that this indicates that US intelligence is finding out that things are much worse in Gaza than we realize. There is very little information coming out of Gaza right now. Journalism seems to be dead, it's a black box in there, and whatever reports we get later are going to be urban myths.
I wonder what all this will amount to. I doubt this will achieve any credibility with the Arab world for saving Arab lives, even if it works to do just that. If it doesn't work, no one in Israel will remember Blinken's advice when they're trapped in the quagmire.
I knew this shit would happen. The IDF took too long to put boots on the ground, and now the "international community" wants them to back off from destroying the open-air terrorist base within walking distance of Israeli population centers. Why on Earth is, "Hamas gets to keep launching rockets, stockpiling munitions, and planning the next ground assault," even on the table? Any sane country would give Palestine an ultimatum. They can choose between:
Total and complete disarmament, or
Total and complete annihilation.
If you let them chose "3. Build your military headquarters under a hospital and use your own populace as hostages," of course they're going to pick that.
If the United States thinks that the Palestinian authorities have a legitimate claim to Israeli territory, then why are we supporting Israel at all? If the United States thinks that they don't, then why aren't we bombing them back to the stone age as part of the war on terror?
I do think they goofed by not invading Gaza immediately, as if they were in hot pursuit. Perhaps intelligence suggested that they were walking into a huge trap.
Alternatively, I'd expect Israel to have antibodies to psychological warfare but I wonder if the 100+ hostages Hamas took is more leverage than we realize.
If the United States thinks that they don't, then why aren't we bombing them back to the stone age as part of the war on terror?
Are we planning to kill every Palestinian? If not, the survivors are going to have not warm feelings for Israel. What state will they live under? How will Israel deal with them?
Insert joke remark about the US having an invasion plan for Canada. Like, sure, it probably existed. Some planners probably wanted to just have reps at moving through the process.
...but if you're Israel, kind of how do you not have a plan on the shelf for invading Gaza? Probably two or three plans with a few different spec'd out scenarios for your goals and other factors. Sure, none are going to exactly match your exact situation, and you'll need a little time to gather the requisite intel in one place (like, e.g., the disposition of other nations in the region) in order to make the necessary adjustments. But I've gotta think you've got an 80% good plan just sitting there, ready to go. Probably updated at least once a year, if not every six months.
I have no position on whether any of these things are good ideas or good plans... just that ISTM that they should have a ready-to-go plan, no less than China almost certainly has one for invading Taiwan whenever the time is right... or Taiwan has one for defending... or South Korea has one for... and so on and so forth. As you trickle out toward less and less likely scenarios, it's less likely to have one that's been updated recently. But Israel with Gaza?
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Notes -
Reports emerging that the USA is "pressuring" Israel to have a fully developed exit plan before invading Gaza to which Netanyahu presumably replied "Leeeeeroooooy Jeeeeenkiiiiiiins."
Meanwhile Blinken has reportedly been meeting with the Israelis for 8 hours.
Speculation abounds that this indicates that US intelligence is finding out that things are much worse in Gaza than we realize. There is very little information coming out of Gaza right now. Journalism seems to be dead, it's a black box in there, and whatever reports we get later are going to be urban myths.
I wonder what all this will amount to. I doubt this will achieve any credibility with the Arab world for saving Arab lives, even if it works to do just that. If it doesn't work, no one in Israel will remember Blinken's advice when they're trapped in the quagmire.
I knew this shit would happen. The IDF took too long to put boots on the ground, and now the "international community" wants them to back off from destroying the open-air terrorist base within walking distance of Israeli population centers. Why on Earth is, "Hamas gets to keep launching rockets, stockpiling munitions, and planning the next ground assault," even on the table? Any sane country would give Palestine an ultimatum. They can choose between:
If you let them chose "3. Build your military headquarters under a hospital and use your own populace as hostages," of course they're going to pick that.
If the United States thinks that the Palestinian authorities have a legitimate claim to Israeli territory, then why are we supporting Israel at all? If the United States thinks that they don't, then why aren't we bombing them back to the stone age as part of the war on terror?
I do think they goofed by not invading Gaza immediately, as if they were in hot pursuit. Perhaps intelligence suggested that they were walking into a huge trap.
Alternatively, I'd expect Israel to have antibodies to psychological warfare but I wonder if the 100+ hostages Hamas took is more leverage than we realize.
Are we planning to kill every Palestinian? If not, the survivors are going to have not warm feelings for Israel. What state will they live under? How will Israel deal with them?
It is my understanding that a successful invasion requires a great deal of preparation.
Insert joke remark about the US having an invasion plan for Canada. Like, sure, it probably existed. Some planners probably wanted to just have reps at moving through the process.
...but if you're Israel, kind of how do you not have a plan on the shelf for invading Gaza? Probably two or three plans with a few different spec'd out scenarios for your goals and other factors. Sure, none are going to exactly match your exact situation, and you'll need a little time to gather the requisite intel in one place (like, e.g., the disposition of other nations in the region) in order to make the necessary adjustments. But I've gotta think you've got an 80% good plan just sitting there, ready to go. Probably updated at least once a year, if not every six months.
I have no position on whether any of these things are good ideas or good plans... just that ISTM that they should have a ready-to-go plan, no less than China almost certainly has one for invading Taiwan whenever the time is right... or Taiwan has one for defending... or South Korea has one for... and so on and so forth. As you trickle out toward less and less likely scenarios, it's less likely to have one that's been updated recently. But Israel with Gaza?
There's a difference between having a plan and being ready to execute a plan with zero preparations or forewarning.
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