naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, etc. whatever amalgamation of actors here are opposing Israel have demonstrated that they are willing to strike their own people.
Hamas etc. gain a lot from this (politically).
The narrative around this is already forming and I suspect that we will never be free of knowing that Israel for sure bombed a hospital (maybe they did).
This will be a major inflection point in this war. Causalities are approaching 1000 people (started at 500, now at 800)
Edit: here’s also why I’m so suspicious of this. If it’s true that Israel bombed this hospital, it basically evaporates any amount of good will I had for them. The 10/7 Hamas attacks were terrible. This is just as bad. Pull our aircraft carriers back, no aid, nothing. Still send in some bad hombres to get our citizens out, but other than that Israel is on its own, and I don’t want to hear any ridiculous moralizing from any us politician ever again.
Edit2: There are allegedly demonstrations happening in several countries now. Extremely dynamic news environment. Nobody knows wtf is going on. Israel is starting to get their narrative together about the cause of this, but it's way too late for them to get ahold of it.
This matches up with the very first video of the rocket hitting the hospital, and answers why the guy filming was filming (because there were a bunch of rockets going overhead)
What are the odds that Israel hit it, but it was an accident?
I concur that intentionally leveling a hospital is just about the worst possible PR. And also that nothing about the Israeli strategy has suggested that they would think it a smart move. But here we are. I’m going to place my bets on a misfire (excusable) or a mistaken target (not so much).
Seems to be videos now or it being a Hamas misfire. That seems far more likely since their qassams are pieces improvised water pipes turned into rockets.
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
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Notes -
A Gazan hospital has been hit, allegedly by a missile, allegedly by an Israeli missile: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/
Here is why this seems incredibly unlikely to me:
Israel gains nothing from this.
Israel loses a lot from this.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, etc. whatever amalgamation of actors here are opposing Israel have demonstrated that they are willing to strike their own people.
Hamas etc. gain a lot from this (politically).
The narrative around this is already forming and I suspect that we will never be free of knowing that Israel for sure bombed a hospital (maybe they did).
This will be a major inflection point in this war. Causalities are approaching 1000 people (started at 500, now at 800)
Edit: here’s also why I’m so suspicious of this. If it’s true that Israel bombed this hospital, it basically evaporates any amount of good will I had for them. The 10/7 Hamas attacks were terrible. This is just as bad. Pull our aircraft carriers back, no aid, nothing. Still send in some bad hombres to get our citizens out, but other than that Israel is on its own, and I don’t want to hear any ridiculous moralizing from any us politician ever again.
Edit2: There are allegedly demonstrations happening in several countries now. Extremely dynamic news environment. Nobody knows wtf is going on. Israel is starting to get their narrative together about the cause of this, but it's way too late for them to get ahold of it.
Edit3: allegedly a video of both the initial rocket launch, as well as the explosion: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1714379242983846126
This matches up with the very first video of the rocket hitting the hospital, and answers why the guy filming was filming (because there were a bunch of rockets going overhead)
What are the odds that Israel hit it, but it was an accident?
I concur that intentionally leveling a hospital is just about the worst possible PR. And also that nothing about the Israeli strategy has suggested that they would think it a smart move. But here we are. I’m going to place my bets on a misfire (excusable) or a mistaken target (not so much).
Seems to be videos now or it being a Hamas misfire. That seems far more likely since their qassams are pieces improvised water pipes turned into rockets.
Are those missiles large enough to do this kind of damage?
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
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