naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, etc. whatever amalgamation of actors here are opposing Israel have demonstrated that they are willing to strike their own people.
Hamas etc. gain a lot from this (politically).
The narrative around this is already forming and I suspect that we will never be free of knowing that Israel for sure bombed a hospital (maybe they did).
This will be a major inflection point in this war. Causalities are approaching 1000 people (started at 500, now at 800)
Edit: here’s also why I’m so suspicious of this. If it’s true that Israel bombed this hospital, it basically evaporates any amount of good will I had for them. The 10/7 Hamas attacks were terrible. This is just as bad. Pull our aircraft carriers back, no aid, nothing. Still send in some bad hombres to get our citizens out, but other than that Israel is on its own, and I don’t want to hear any ridiculous moralizing from any us politician ever again.
Edit2: There are allegedly demonstrations happening in several countries now. Extremely dynamic news environment. Nobody knows wtf is going on. Israel is starting to get their narrative together about the cause of this, but it's way too late for them to get ahold of it.
This matches up with the very first video of the rocket hitting the hospital, and answers why the guy filming was filming (because there were a bunch of rockets going overhead)
What are the odds that Israel hit it, but it was an accident?
I concur that intentionally leveling a hospital is just about the worst possible PR. And also that nothing about the Israeli strategy has suggested that they would think it a smart move. But here we are. I’m going to place my bets on a misfire (excusable) or a mistaken target (not so much).
Seems to be videos now or it being a Hamas misfire. That seems far more likely since their qassams are pieces improvised water pipes turned into rockets.
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
Rumors on Twitter are that it was a test of a special longer range missile that exploded the fuel all at once. Not saying they’re necessarily true, but that could explain it if so.
Everyone on twitter does 10 different routines of 5 dimensional hyperspace mental gymnastics at the same time. That a bunch of team A are doing it doesn't really prove anything, because teams B-Z also are. Better to focus on good arguments.
Maybe, I'm skeptical by nature especially from a conflict and alleged atrocity such as this. The photos to me could also fit the signature of an Air Burst JDAM. If you had a target - or group of targets - in an open area like a parking lot, using an air burst munition makes the most sense and causes the most damage. However I am not an expert.
Maybe I'm skeptical or biased but I still don't buy it. Which begs the question if these photos sway the Arab powers and their people one way or the other.
"JDAM" is a really broad category (if you really want to be technical, it's the guidance kit rather than the weapon system), but at least common ones are 200 lbs to 1000 lbs of high explosive. That's... really not consistent with what we're seeing here, even in airburst configuration, nor was the videos.
Similarly, the impact pattern just isn't anything like you'd expect from an airburst; things are pushed away from the impact site, not crumpling from a big overpressure wave, not just in the cars immediately around the impact site but also nearby roof tiles or building windows.
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Notes -
A Gazan hospital has been hit, allegedly by a missile, allegedly by an Israeli missile: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/
Here is why this seems incredibly unlikely to me:
Israel gains nothing from this.
Israel loses a lot from this.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, etc. whatever amalgamation of actors here are opposing Israel have demonstrated that they are willing to strike their own people.
Hamas etc. gain a lot from this (politically).
The narrative around this is already forming and I suspect that we will never be free of knowing that Israel for sure bombed a hospital (maybe they did).
This will be a major inflection point in this war. Causalities are approaching 1000 people (started at 500, now at 800)
Edit: here’s also why I’m so suspicious of this. If it’s true that Israel bombed this hospital, it basically evaporates any amount of good will I had for them. The 10/7 Hamas attacks were terrible. This is just as bad. Pull our aircraft carriers back, no aid, nothing. Still send in some bad hombres to get our citizens out, but other than that Israel is on its own, and I don’t want to hear any ridiculous moralizing from any us politician ever again.
Edit2: There are allegedly demonstrations happening in several countries now. Extremely dynamic news environment. Nobody knows wtf is going on. Israel is starting to get their narrative together about the cause of this, but it's way too late for them to get ahold of it.
Edit3: allegedly a video of both the initial rocket launch, as well as the explosion: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1714379242983846126
This matches up with the very first video of the rocket hitting the hospital, and answers why the guy filming was filming (because there were a bunch of rockets going overhead)
What are the odds that Israel hit it, but it was an accident?
I concur that intentionally leveling a hospital is just about the worst possible PR. And also that nothing about the Israeli strategy has suggested that they would think it a smart move. But here we are. I’m going to place my bets on a misfire (excusable) or a mistaken target (not so much).
Seems to be videos now or it being a Hamas misfire. That seems far more likely since their qassams are pieces improvised water pipes turned into rockets.
Are those missiles large enough to do this kind of damage?
I think it's too large for Qassams without a secondary explosion; depending on model they're usually 5-20 kg TNT- or ANFO-shrapnel mixes, plus whatever fuel was left over. This card is absolutely inappropriate for comparison, but it's the sort of thing that the ATF doesn't shoot people for talking about, and I don't think it gives anywhere near the boom present there.
That said, there's other which less commonly-used payloads, and they range from 100lbs-300lbs, often of better high explosives without as much (or any) mixed-in shrapnel.
There's always the possibility of a golden BB: even a small warhead can cause tremendous damage if it hits the wrong place. Hospitals will naturally have people in fairly close quarters in an environment like this, as well as a lot of oxygen tanks and fuel moving around. It doesn't look like secondary explosives, but sometimes that's hard to identify.
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Rumors on Twitter are that it was a test of a special longer range missile that exploded the fuel all at once. Not saying they’re necessarily true, but that could explain it if so.
Lots of hoop jumping from Zionists on twitter right now.
Not a useful contribution, less of this please.
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Everyone on twitter does 10 different routines of 5 dimensional hyperspace mental gymnastics at the same time. That a bunch of team A are doing it doesn't really prove anything, because teams B-Z also are. Better to focus on good arguments.
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Given the daytime photos released, it seems like they were jumping through the correct hoops.
Maybe, I'm skeptical by nature especially from a conflict and alleged atrocity such as this. The photos to me could also fit the signature of an Air Burst JDAM. If you had a target - or group of targets - in an open area like a parking lot, using an air burst munition makes the most sense and causes the most damage. However I am not an expert.
Maybe I'm skeptical or biased but I still don't buy it. Which begs the question if these photos sway the Arab powers and their people one way or the other.
"JDAM" is a really broad category (if you really want to be technical, it's the guidance kit rather than the weapon system), but at least common ones are 200 lbs to 1000 lbs of high explosive. That's... really not consistent with what we're seeing here, even in airburst configuration, nor was the videos.
Similarly, the impact pattern just isn't anything like you'd expect from an airburst; things are pushed away from the impact site, not crumpling from a big overpressure wave, not just in the cars immediately around the impact site but also nearby roof tiles or building windows.
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