naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
29984 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
It would be reasonable to delay it because of the Biden visit. But if they don’t invade within a day or two of Biden leaving then I would just assume that they’re not going to.
Seems to fit in with the general pattern of developed nations opting for drones and airstrikes, and being squeamish about directly putting boots on the ground.
If they don't do a ground op after all this huffing and puffing, won't they just look completely bitchmade, literally the paper tiger the Arab militant sources portray them as? Hard to see how that wouldn't majorly boost Hamas, Hezbollah etc.
In my view, the maximally rational response to this would be
significantly beef up wall security and air defense
continue very surgical strikes into Gaza to kill Hamas and destroy military hardware
find and use non-headline grabbing ways of depriving Gaza of resources
otherwise go about life as normally as possible and not show any signs of being terrorized
So, +1 for not immediately invading.
That said, they're all clearly terrorized and look bitchmade. So, time to roll in and fill underground tunnels with fuel and burn Hamas to a crisp. Probably, as a matter of taste, it would be good to wait until the President of the US is safely out of the neighborhood.
Walterodim
Only equals speak the truth, that’s my thought on’t
dr_analog 7mo ago
I genuinely don't know how (2) and (3) are supposed to work. Israel's intelligence on the whereabouts of Hamas are clearly not that great, Hamas has every incentive to embed with civilians, and even genuine mistakes will be photographed and treated as more proof of how evil Israel is. With regard to resources, the current Western stance appears to be that Israel is obliged to provide resources. If they fail to do so, Hamas will use that as a propaganda opportunity and Western media will oblige them.
From a propaganda and optics perspective, they've simply been outplayed. There is no action they can take other than sitting passively that won't result in screeching about genocide.
They could never not be outplayed, that’s the reality of the situation, there’s no way to conduct this war in a way amenable to the sensibilities of the Western PMC.
The only way they could have done a ground invasion is if they went in on day one, but if they did that they’d have been walking into a huge trap and would have taken (and still will, if they do) unbelievable casualties.
Unironically pumping spironolactone into the water would be a better tactic than going in on foot.
Walterodim
Only equals speak the truth, that’s my thought on’t
Stefferi 7mo ago
Yes, thoroughly bitchmade. If that happens, I'll assume that they were cowed by Biden and the United States diplomacy apparatus. Were I a militant anti-Israel Arab, I would view that outcome as hilarious.
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Notes -
I thought the invasion would have started within a couple of days after the first attack, and certainly within a week.
Surely Israel has detailed war plans ready for such a scenario. They certainly struck back lightning-fast in 1973.
It would be reasonable to delay it because of the Biden visit. But if they don’t invade within a day or two of Biden leaving then I would just assume that they’re not going to.
Seems to fit in with the general pattern of developed nations opting for drones and airstrikes, and being squeamish about directly putting boots on the ground.
If they don't do a ground op after all this huffing and puffing, won't they just look completely bitchmade, literally the paper tiger the Arab militant sources portray them as? Hard to see how that wouldn't majorly boost Hamas, Hezbollah etc.
In my view, the maximally rational response to this would be
So, +1 for not immediately invading.
That said, they're all clearly terrorized and look bitchmade. So, time to roll in and fill underground tunnels with fuel and burn Hamas to a crisp. Probably, as a matter of taste, it would be good to wait until the President of the US is safely out of the neighborhood.
I genuinely don't know how (2) and (3) are supposed to work. Israel's intelligence on the whereabouts of Hamas are clearly not that great, Hamas has every incentive to embed with civilians, and even genuine mistakes will be photographed and treated as more proof of how evil Israel is. With regard to resources, the current Western stance appears to be that Israel is obliged to provide resources. If they fail to do so, Hamas will use that as a propaganda opportunity and Western media will oblige them.
From a propaganda and optics perspective, they've simply been outplayed. There is no action they can take other than sitting passively that won't result in screeching about genocide.
They could never not be outplayed, that’s the reality of the situation, there’s no way to conduct this war in a way amenable to the sensibilities of the Western PMC.
The only way they could have done a ground invasion is if they went in on day one, but if they did that they’d have been walking into a huge trap and would have taken (and still will, if they do) unbelievable casualties.
Unironically pumping spironolactone into the water would be a better tactic than going in on foot.
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I don't know about 3, but they apparently thought they were hot shit at 2. This is a moment of reckoning.
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I think you’re entirely correct!
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Yes, thoroughly bitchmade. If that happens, I'll assume that they were cowed by Biden and the United States diplomacy apparatus. Were I a militant anti-Israel Arab, I would view that outcome as hilarious.
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