naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Might Turkey join the fight against Israel? Former US Colonel Douglas Macgregor thinks they might. Obviously this would be horrible for Israel, the US, and NATO. Does anyone understand what is happening in Turkey well enough to know if this is a possibility?
This is the same Macgregor that's been predicting Russian forces having free run of all Ukraine east of the Dniepr Real Soon Now for the entire duration of the war? The one whose consulting firm got casualty and death estimates wrong by a factor of (E: at least) four? The one who likes to plug gold?
Yeah I don't think his thoughts are worth much. Maybe as some kind of entropy source for a prototype AI tasked with writing movie plots?
General observation, not connected to Macgregor's current comments, but throughout the Ukraine War it has blown my mind how many of these pro-Russian pundits have been incredibly, flagrantly, continuously wrong in their predictions and continue to be cited by the cynical, oh-so-world-weary geopolitically aware independent thinkers again and again as if nothing had happened.
how many of these pro-Russian pundits have been incredibly, flagrantly, continuously wrong
In contrast to Bellendcat, which predicted Russia running out of PGMs for months in 2022. Or all the people who predicted this years's offensive would smash the Russians.
In general I'd say most of the people doing predictions on the war were absolutely off and kept at it.
It was Christo Grozev, speaking on UA Tv early in the war.
To be honest, it does seem nobody had a handle on Russian production. They 'run out' of stockpile by summer probably because it wasn't very good. Pentagon 'thought' they wouldn't be able to make new ones because 'sanctions' which turned out to be BS as they're still flying.
Of course, how many are fired, intercepted and hit is hard to say because in Ukraine, they'll arrest you for posting videos of damage on the ground.
We'll see later this year. Russia is unlikely to run out because especially cruise missiles are not very high tech. They use early 1990s electronics. If you have access to Alibaba, you can make all the cruise missiles for which you can get engines and aluminum and man-hours.
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Notes -
Might Turkey join the fight against Israel? Former US Colonel Douglas Macgregor thinks they might. Obviously this would be horrible for Israel, the US, and NATO. Does anyone understand what is happening in Turkey well enough to know if this is a possibility?
This is the same Macgregor that's been predicting Russian forces having free run of all Ukraine east of the Dniepr Real Soon Now for the entire duration of the war? The one whose consulting firm got casualty and death estimates wrong by a factor of (E: at least) four? The one who likes to plug gold?
Yeah I don't think his thoughts are worth much. Maybe as some kind of entropy source for a prototype AI tasked with writing movie plots?
General observation, not connected to Macgregor's current comments, but throughout the Ukraine War it has blown my mind how many of these pro-Russian pundits have been incredibly, flagrantly, continuously wrong in their predictions and continue to be cited by the cynical, oh-so-world-weary geopolitically aware independent thinkers again and again as if nothing had happened.
In contrast to Bellendcat, which predicted Russia running out of PGMs for months in 2022. Or all the people who predicted this years's offensive would smash the Russians.
In general I'd say most of the people doing predictions on the war were absolutely off and kept at it.
link? I bet that it as not phrased this way, as it is known that they are producing new PGM
It was Christo Grozev, speaking on UA Tv early in the war.
To be honest, it does seem nobody had a handle on Russian production. They 'run out' of stockpile by summer probably because it wasn't very good. Pentagon 'thought' they wouldn't be able to make new ones because 'sanctions' which turned out to be BS as they're still flying.
Of course, how many are fired, intercepted and hit is hard to say because in Ukraine, they'll arrest you for posting videos of damage on the ground.
We'll see later this year. Russia is unlikely to run out because especially cruise missiles are not very high tech. They use early 1990s electronics. If you have access to Alibaba, you can make all the cruise missiles for which you can get engines and aluminum and man-hours.
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