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Notes -
Texas primary ballot propositions for 2024 released
https://texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2024-Primary-Ballot-Propositions.pdf
You can read all thirteen of them above. They're not binding on the legislature, but in a dominant party system the results of referenda on the primary ballot have a strong say. You can read past year's propositions, and the results, here: https://texasgop.org/republican-primary-ballot-propositions/. All of the ones which aren't just fluffy signaling had at least a serious attempt to enact them by the government, except for the life amendment(this is probably because the Texas GOP isn't flat out delusional and realizes such an amendment would fail). Greg Abbott called two special sessions to address 2022's #9(school choice) and put 10,000 troops on the border to address #1(they're still there). The results of these referenda are a very strong guide to what Greg Abbott's priorities for the following legislative session are and have a lot of influence over other state officials as well- although not everything happens. And given that Texas has an economy the size of the Netherlands and the second largest population in the USA, it seems like Texas legislative priorities for the next session(Texas's legislature meets once every other year, so this is the 2025 session, not a 2024 session) are relevant culture war fodder.
To start with, a note on the secession proposal- the threshold for putting a proposition on the primary ballot is, under state law, signatures equivalent to 5% of the votes for the party's gubernatorial candidate in the last election, which for republicans turned out to be about 100k. The secessionists got 140k, then, well, read the rejection letter(https://texasgop.org/texit-prop/). To note Matt Rinaldi is not a rino; he's not using loopholes to reject this proposition because he loves Joe Biden or would be uncomfortable with the policy direction of a Texas that doesn't have to answer to DC. The Texas GOP seriously appears to want to not have to deal with the secession question right now, although a case can be made that most of the state party leadership wants to keep it in their back pocket for if a socialist gets elected or a Lebanon-style civil war breaks out or something. The Texas Nationalist Movement, which occasionally has success on less core issues, is posturing on twitter about wanting to sue the GOP to get a ballot referendum, but it'll probably just get dismissed if they do file it.
Onto the actual proposals-
1- Eliminating property taxes. Texas property taxes are legitimately too high and have to be brought under some sort of control(and the GOP primary electorate are very heavily homeowners); this proposition is probably going to pass at like 99/1. What the legislature actually does with it is unclear, but I'd expect a stricter regulation on raising property appraisals(although nothing like california's prop 13; there are enough technocrats in the legislature to avoid something so stupid) coupled with a buydown of rates.
2- Is about the border. So are 3, 4, and 5. I expect e-verify(system for checking workers to be US citizens) to be enacted, then evaded with temp agencies that never get prosecuted, the border to get tightened up, and in state tuition at state universities to require proof of citizenship. Public schools probably won't kick the illegal immigrants out.
6- Prohibiting overseas national guard deployment without a declaration of war. The national guard is technically federal troops, so there will be a very carefully worded bill about this one that winds up in court.
7- This is an interesting one. It's calling on the state government to create a metallic-standard currency through the Texas bullion depository(a real thing which already exists- https://www.texasbulliondepository.gov/). I think it's technically legal? Definitely an interesting one to watch- both the bill that gets drafted and what comptroller Glenn Hegar(who's perhaps best known for trying to shut down drag shows by sending them a bill for unpaid strip club taxes, and running an anti-ESG crusade) actually does with it if it passes.
8- Banning vaccine mandates. Boring, will pass, probably going to have a bunch of exceptions in it.
9- Closing the primary. I don't have a particularly strong opinion on this and I think it's to very mildly push the republican primary electorate towards nominating hardliners over moderates.
10- Giving the attorney general authority to prosecute election crimes. It seems like three things are notable about this- Harris county(the state's largest, it has Houston in it) is widely believed by republican primary voters to have rigged their 2022 election in favor of democrats, this is pushing a constitutional amendment so it needs to go to a public referendum after the legislature approves it, and the current attorney general is Ken Paxton.
11- School choice again. Greg Abbott is currently campaigning against republicans he blames for killing the schoolchoice bill last session; we'll see if it works this time.
12- Requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. Tinkering with election rules is predictable drama and I expect whatever the legislature comes up with to result in a quorum bust again.
13- Ban citizens of x countries from owning land in Texas. This failed on a technicality in the last session.
Maybe I'm crazy but isn't this obviously unconstitutional? Arizona v. United States was still binding precedent last I checked. States can't just seize the authority to do federal immigration policy for themselves. I think Proposition 3 is probably fine. Proposition 4 is probably fine as applied to colleges but I think is just a repeat of Plyler v. Doe (which was also Texas) as applied to K-12 schools. Proposition 5 also seems fine.
I do not understand the obsession with using precious metals as currency. Why is it better for the value of your currency to be at the whims of a commodity market as compared to managed by a central bank? Are the value of these coins (presumably) going to be pegged to some USD price? Free floating exchange rate? Why would anyone use these as opposed to USD?
Seems like this has obvious equal protection problems? My understanding is the 14th Amendment's guarantee of equal protection applies to citizens and non-citizens alike, as long as they're in the United States and subject to its jurisdiction. Seems like classic national origin discrimination that would be an equal protection violation.
Options are always nice. Central banks don't always do a great job managing their currencies and, while metallic standards aren't perfect, they're a workable alternative when your central bankers are having a live one.
Are you talking about state voluntary currencies specifically or about the gold standard in general?
I'll try to steelman a gold standard.
Most currencies collapse. Governments (either elected or autocratic) tend to spend too much money which requires money printing. The dollar has declined by 98% vs gold since the U.S. went off the gold standard in 1971. This is a success story. Within the last 100 years, most other currencies have succumbed to hyperinflation and collapse.
The widely touted boom and bust cycles of the 19th century led to higher growth. Keynesian economics has mostly solved the business cycle post WWII. Recessions have been few, far between, and extremely mild. But the elimination of the business cycle has stalled capitalism's engine of creative destruction. Governments and unprofitable companies lock up a greater share of capital. They need to be rooted out by bankruptcy and replaced. Low interest rates and money printing allow the can to be kicked down the road forever, allowing inefficient uses of capital to persist. The bust cycles caused by hard money limits are a good thing. Growth was much higher before 1971.
For hundreds of years in the Common Law system, the elected representatives of the people have controlled the purse strings. Unelected bureaucrats in the Federal Reserve printing money to buy trillions in mortgages or government debt is tyranny.
A gold standard makes it difficult for the government to spend more money that it can collect. It also allows the government to go bankrupt which can prevent the cancerous growth of bureaucracy.
Let me know if you'd like my case AGAINST precious metals as currency!
I would be very interested to read that case. My understanding was that you get a problem where the amount of precious metals stays constant while your economy grows, leading to either re-evaluation of all currency or a lack of money. More rarely the opposite can happen, as in the case wheee the Spanish discovered a silver mine and suddenly had a mass inflation of their silver currency.
If the economy grows but the supply of precious metal doesn't grow at the same rate, the result is monetary deflation, which is generally undesirable for currency for a variety of reasons having mostly to do with discouraging investment.
That's price deflation. Monetary deflation is an actual contraction of the money supply. A lot of arguments against deflationary currencies rely on conflating the two.
Price deflation is still pretty bad because it shifts gains towards capital and away from workers. Actual contraction of the money supply is even worse, partly because it necessarily causes price deflation.
While economists seem pretty convinced that modest inflation is preferable to modest deflation, I'm personally unconvinced that for modest, predictable rates (which plausibly excludes Gold or Bitcoin) it matters much either direction. There are examples of specific commodities deflating (specifically, "for the same price in dollars next year I can get more/better product": computers, flat-panel TVs, cell phones, even cars) and none of the promised miserly spending habits have really appeared that I can tell. Apple didn't become a trillion dollar company because everyone is patiently waiting to get a better iPhone next year rather than this year.
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