Can't say I was too impressed by this one. When you leverage your influence to take a stance on something, it's fair game to attack your influence. Journalists absolutely should be applying a higher level of scrutiny to people who speak out. If there's a problem there it's jourbalists' bias, not their methods.
It feels like vintage Scott to me. He is loudly and explicitly calling bullshit on a clearly false proposition. I didn't read him as making a huge value judgement here. To be a good Bayesian, you have to reason properly about the process that produces the evidence. People who don't operate on the presumption that the media "targets" people are going to be systematically wrong.
It feels like vintage Scott to me. He is loudly and explicitly calling bullshit on a clearly false proposition.
Is it "clearly false" though?
I'm reminded of a speech our Company VP made at our year-end/new-years all hands to the effect of "science" is 90% bullshit because scientists can just make shit up and no one but another scientist (who's probably their friend, colleague, and/or engaged in the same sort of chicanery) will ever be in a position to call them on it. Engineering is where the real challenge and intellectual rigor lies because any lay-man can tell look and tell you if the bridge stands, or the airplane flies.
If Claudine Gay was targeted, what does that change? If Scott genuinely feels that tribal Affiliation and political expediency should trump intellectual rigor, let us see him make that argument.
If that VP has never sat down at a CDR and thought "these engineers are talking out of their asses," then wow, he's got some talented employees.
The defense industry is littered with projects that went over-budget in order to under-deliver. Software engineering wrote the book on feature creep. Tech startups scramble to get a functional demo together so they can pull enough cash to fund the other 80% of development. And no one involved in any of these wants to admit it!
It's just that in the world of real money and real deadlines, there is a continuum of "calling them on it." At the extreme end are the lawsuits and the bankruptcies. But at the other, there's a series of reminders that sunk costs aren't always a fallacy.
Any layman can tell you that the airplane flies. What he can't tell you is if it is worth $109M or only $100M. If it complies with every term of a thousand-page contract. If an extension to update one or two of those terms will actually achieve anything. If, in ten years, USMC techs will be cursing his name for signing off on the sick VTOL thruster.
Engineering involves challenge and rigor because the problems are fundamentally not easy. Knowing exactly how they'll turn out hard isn't easy, either. It's a collaborative process of dozens or hundreds of people collecting estimates, reports, designs, results, and bills into a coherent product. All of that can apply to science, too. When everything goes right, it does. On the other...well, sometimes someone just earns a layoff.
And that's the point. That's the one, last, important step that (much of) science is lacking. Have you built something that works AT ALL? It's not that engineering doesn't suck. It's that modern "science" is even worse, because so much of its product (random unreplicated research papers, written on esoteric subjects, skimmed by friendly peer reviewers and read by nobody else) never needs to pass that final filter.
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Notes -
Can't say I was too impressed by this one. When you leverage your influence to take a stance on something, it's fair game to attack your influence. Journalists absolutely should be applying a higher level of scrutiny to people who speak out. If there's a problem there it's jourbalists' bias, not their methods.
It feels like vintage Scott to me. He is loudly and explicitly calling bullshit on a clearly false proposition. I didn't read him as making a huge value judgement here. To be a good Bayesian, you have to reason properly about the process that produces the evidence. People who don't operate on the presumption that the media "targets" people are going to be systematically wrong.
Is it "clearly false" though?
I'm reminded of a speech our Company VP made at our year-end/new-years all hands to the effect of "science" is 90% bullshit because scientists can just make shit up and no one but another scientist (who's probably their friend, colleague, and/or engaged in the same sort of chicanery) will ever be in a position to call them on it. Engineering is where the real challenge and intellectual rigor lies because any lay-man can tell look and tell you if the bridge stands, or the airplane flies.
If Claudine Gay was targeted, what does that change? If Scott genuinely feels that tribal Affiliation and political expediency should trump intellectual rigor, let us see him make that argument.
If that VP has never sat down at a CDR and thought "these engineers are talking out of their asses," then wow, he's got some talented employees.
The defense industry is littered with projects that went over-budget in order to under-deliver. Software engineering wrote the book on feature creep. Tech startups scramble to get a functional demo together so they can pull enough cash to fund the other 80% of development. And no one involved in any of these wants to admit it!
It's just that in the world of real money and real deadlines, there is a continuum of "calling them on it." At the extreme end are the lawsuits and the bankruptcies. But at the other, there's a series of reminders that sunk costs aren't always a fallacy.
Any layman can tell you that the airplane flies. What he can't tell you is if it is worth $109M or only $100M. If it complies with every term of a thousand-page contract. If an extension to update one or two of those terms will actually achieve anything. If, in ten years, USMC techs will be cursing his name for signing off on the sick VTOL thruster.
Engineering involves challenge and rigor because the problems are fundamentally not easy. Knowing exactly how they'll turn out hard isn't easy, either. It's a collaborative process of dozens or hundreds of people collecting estimates, reports, designs, results, and bills into a coherent product. All of that can apply to science, too. When everything goes right, it does. On the other...well, sometimes someone just earns a layoff.
And that's the point. That's the one, last, important step that (much of) science is lacking. Have you built something that works AT ALL? It's not that engineering doesn't suck. It's that modern "science" is even worse, because so much of its product (random unreplicated research papers, written on esoteric subjects, skimmed by friendly peer reviewers and read by nobody else) never needs to pass that final filter.
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