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Something that always bothered me about the Motte is that while massive cultural/political events are going on in Europe, one needs to dive deep into the roundup thread to find any discussion of it at all. Meanwhile the latest trans-people-in-school or outrageous-nytimes-oped controversy (which nobody will remember in a week) will have 500 comment threads dedicated to extreme nitpicking.
Anyway sorry for the rant. It looks like the far-right (of the quite openly far-right, even post-fascist variety) has just won the Italian elections and will very likely going to provide the prime minister to a cabinet that will include a 85 year old Berlusconi among others. Italy is the 3rd most populous and wealthy country in the EU. It also acts as a perennial threat to the stability of the Brussels-led order and the euro, since an Italian default or currency exit would almost definitely trigger the collapse of the euro with who knows what consequences. The EU looks determined to fight. Meloni herself does not sound like the type of politician who will accept to be crushed as easily as her predecessors. Here is a French interview with a 19 years old activist Meloni. She still sounds like a true believer to me. To get the gist of just how radical (from the EU-norm) she is willing to be with regard to cultural issues, I recommend this speech from 3 years ago (with English subs).
What are your expectations? Are we coming near a grand showdown? How is this going to interact with the looming threat of grid collapse in Europe? Russia sanctions and the European willingness to keep Ukrainian army in the field? NATO expansions? Is her family and God rhetoric just fluff or do you expect some real moves in this regard? When the ECB will have to start increasing interest rates substantially and Italy has to choose between bankruptcy or euro-exit, how will this go under this government?
P.S. Italy was one of the most anal countries with regard to vaccine oppression and corona measures in Europe. Does anyone know what the position of the Fratelli was back then? And how they talk about these things now?
There was that top-level thread on this exact topic last week.
I don’t expect much effect on the broader world, including EU relations with Russia. Some possibility of financial instability, maybe, but Italy isn’t Greece. I’m seeing some vague opposition to “EU reforms” and terms of COVID aid—if anyone has further sources, I’d like to see them.
No idea on domestic social consequences whether or not she is a true believer.
It is funny to me, though, to see a 26% plurality in a 44% coalition as winning the vote. As much as the BBC and friends are decrying the Brothers of Italy as literally Mussolini, without an Acerbo law, Italy remains comparatively insulated against the fascist playbook.
I don't get how this gives the Right a ruling majority, but Italy does Italy. Also it is important to notice that both Berlusconi and Salvini are openly signaling defections from the EU line towards Russia and may other things.
Yes but no. Greek public debt to GDP ratio of last year was 193% while Italian one was 150% according to the internet. Greece can be kept in line and on life support with ECB shenanigans but Italy is too big for that.
Rutte is basically a walking corpse at this point. He was supposed to retire before covid, but ended up staying "one more term" as the country would probably have multiple repeat elections and coalition failures during corona if he left. Now he is entirely toast in polling and probably won't survive 4 years. Scholz isn't much more popular as a leader either and has to appease FDP. A newer bigger euro crisis just when the creditor nations cannot make difficult political decisions would be the perfect storm
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Oh boy. I remember seeing AfD election campaign posters for the very first time back when Greece was the big topic in general and the centerpiece of their platform. And that was under Merkel, who had the benefit of benevolent coverage in a way that Scholz can only dream of. I don't expect lightning to strike twice, but I do wonder what would happen. Which isn't meant as darkly hinting at anything; I'm genuinely morbidly curious.
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