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Something that always bothered me about the Motte is that while massive cultural/political events are going on in Europe, one needs to dive deep into the roundup thread to find any discussion of it at all. Meanwhile the latest trans-people-in-school or outrageous-nytimes-oped controversy (which nobody will remember in a week) will have 500 comment threads dedicated to extreme nitpicking.
Anyway sorry for the rant. It looks like the far-right (of the quite openly far-right, even post-fascist variety) has just won the Italian elections and will very likely going to provide the prime minister to a cabinet that will include a 85 year old Berlusconi among others. Italy is the 3rd most populous and wealthy country in the EU. It also acts as a perennial threat to the stability of the Brussels-led order and the euro, since an Italian default or currency exit would almost definitely trigger the collapse of the euro with who knows what consequences. The EU looks determined to fight. Meloni herself does not sound like the type of politician who will accept to be crushed as easily as her predecessors. Here is a French interview with a 19 years old activist Meloni. She still sounds like a true believer to me. To get the gist of just how radical (from the EU-norm) she is willing to be with regard to cultural issues, I recommend this speech from 3 years ago (with English subs).
What are your expectations? Are we coming near a grand showdown? How is this going to interact with the looming threat of grid collapse in Europe? Russia sanctions and the European willingness to keep Ukrainian army in the field? NATO expansions? Is her family and God rhetoric just fluff or do you expect some real moves in this regard? When the ECB will have to start increasing interest rates substantially and Italy has to choose between bankruptcy or euro-exit, how will this go under this government?
P.S. Italy was one of the most anal countries with regard to vaccine oppression and corona measures in Europe. Does anyone know what the position of the Fratelli was back then? And how they talk about these things now?
There was that top-level thread on this exact topic last week.
I don’t expect much effect on the broader world, including EU relations with Russia. Some possibility of financial instability, maybe, but Italy isn’t Greece. I’m seeing some vague opposition to “EU reforms” and terms of COVID aid—if anyone has further sources, I’d like to see them.
No idea on domestic social consequences whether or not she is a true believer.
It is funny to me, though, to see a 26% plurality in a 44% coalition as winning the vote. As much as the BBC and friends are decrying the Brothers of Italy as literally Mussolini, without an Acerbo law, Italy remains comparatively insulated against the fascist playbook.
I think the question is as much ‘who are her coalition partners and what are they asking for’ as it is ‘what does she want on her agenda’.
And let's not forget the immortal, Silvio Berlusconi. I get the sense that he takes on a much more significant role than minor coalition partner. He acts like an elderly mentor around Salvini and Meloni. And I can't think of someone with a deeper knowledge of ins and outs of Italian/EU politics. Both the clean and the dirty parts.
Berlusconi wants Russian gas more than anything, and will probably get it.
Isn’t she also in coalition with a religious right party that will probably also suck up political capital making demands?
Looks like soon he might not be able to no matter how much he wants it. Nord Stream 2 pipeline pressure collapses mysteriously overnight.
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