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/r/stupidpol is abuzz with news of both NordStream pipelines being damaged, in what mainstream sources openly speculate to be an attack:
tagesspiegel.de (google translated)
welt.de (google translated)
Stupidpol being stupidpol, blames it all on the west (either the US or UK)... but it feels like the kind of have a point? Russian performance in the war doesn't exactly scream competence, so it would be surprising, if they pulled something like this off, so deep in NATOs turf.
When we were discussing the coming winter, some people were saying "the European gas storage is filled up, it'll be fine", but isn't the gas storage more like a buffer, designed to take advantage of the decreased demand over the summer, to even out the increased demand in winter, working on the assumption that there will still be a constant supply of gas coming in? Does this change the calculus at all?
This is obviously an American op. The Poles know:
https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915
Biden made the threat:
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1490791554088321024
The Scandies say it was explosives:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mystery-gas-leaks-hit-major-russian-undersea-gas-pipelines-europe-2022-09-27/
And best of all, the US had mine-planting/explosives forces right on Bornholm island in June! The bombs we're talking about detonated just off the coast of Bornholm island!
https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
How much more clear could it be? A few mines were left behind.
With friends like America, Europe doesn't need enemies. The US-initiated war on terror got them targeted for terrorist attacks. The US destabilization of Syria and Libya got them a flood of refugees. Yes, the Europeans were partially complicit in these foreign adventures but they were really just being dragged along. The Prime Mover was Washington. When NATO made that fateful statement that Ukraine and Georgia would one day join the alliance, the French and Germans were trying to tone it down. They didn't want to antagonize Russia. Thanks to the US, Western Europe has been pushed into a proxy war against their energy supplier. Now, the US is making sure Russia can't supply Germany with energy, that it will be dependent upon US puppet states in the Middle East or expensive fuel from America directly.
I don't even think this is a wise strategy for American interests. If you try to weaken your allies so they can't form a viable bloc to oppose you, you're antagonizing them. You're giving them a reason to oppose you and sabotage you. Why should the US expect much help from Europe on the main front against China in the Pacific? 'You're fighting your main industrial supplier? Tough - we'll sell you some overpriced goods. Good luck!'
Is it possible to determine what type of explosive was used from the seismic data? I'd imagine different types of material would have a different pattern.
Which, if we know about, then Russia would have known about it as well. I've read UK ships were in that area, too. This could have been done with an underwater drone filled with explosives. The area could have been chosen because of the activities of the US/UK and others in the area, in order to create doubt.
For all we know the mine-planting/explosive force was there because of concerns about explosives being placed on the pipeline, or intelligence about a possible attack on it.
Seems plausible that they were there based on intelligence. But it's also possible they did it, released this story, and can now simply say "why would we publicly announce that if we were going to blow the pipeline?" And then pull out some vague, uncorroborated, anonymous, top secret intelligence that suggested a threat on the pipeline. Yellow cake.
Why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline that they control?
The Russians need that pipeline for leverage. They can say 'stop waging proxy war against us and we'll send you gas'.
Because Putin benefits from sowing confusion among Europeans. He also gives a signal that Russia can do the same to any other pipelines or cables in the sea.
What's best for Russia has long been irrelevant here. Putin goes with what's best for his personal aims and nobody in power dares to go against him (at least yet).
Two sequences of events
US officials have long hated this pipeline and publicly threatened to terminate it, regardless of what Germany wishes
US military forces stage a mine-clearing exercise off Bornholm island, testing their snazzy new drones and technologies. They leave a couple of mines or smart torpedoes behind. If they're somehow discovered, it's an accident from the exercises. These are now a method they can use if Germany starts getting antsy about waging proxy war against their energy supplier or if Russia moves more aggressively.
Russia commences partial mobilization, stages referendums on parts of Ukraine joining Russia so it can creep its nuclear umbrella forward into Ukraine
US blows up the pipeline in response, securing profits for its energy exporters, tying Germany's hands and hurting Russian diplomacy in Europe by removing leverage
Alternately
Russia spends billions of dollars building a pipeline to Germany so it can make a great deal of money selling gas
Russian naval forces, not known for their excellence, lay explosives in their own pipeline (which they control the flow of gas to and could turn on or off at any time)
Russian forces blow up their own pipeline to show they can blow up other people's pipelines, like the Norwegian-Poland pipeline that finished just today, which they don't control, didn't pay for and actively harms their interests!
Surely you see that the former approach makes more sense than the latter!
This is what happens when you are linked to Biden's speech by someone saying "oh he threatened to take out the pipeline no matter what Germany wants" without realizing that he was standing right next to Germany's chancellor answering that question. In the statement "I promise you we'll be able to do it" the "we" includes Germany.
BIDEN: "There will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
REPORTER: "How will you do that, exactly? Since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control?"
BIDEN: "I promise you we'll be able to do it."
He didn't say, 'we'll get the Germans to cancel it' or explain anything further. I interpret that as a threat. He made a promise that they'd have the power to make it end, not contingent on what the Germans say.
Other officials like Ned Price said they'd work together with Germany to cancel it. But it's extremely obvious that the Germans want this pipeline more than the Americans do. The Germans were the ones defending it for the past few years because it advances their interests and the Americans hate it because it threatens their interests. They have been putting sanctions on this project, they've been hectoring the Germans to cancel it. Sanctions are not 'we're talking with our allies to get them to agree to cancel this', they're using pressure directly. All you have to do is put two and two together.
Imagine that your rich, influential girlfriend is really into environmentalism and hates that you drive a car. She's begging and threatening you to stop driving. She manipulates the system to make it harder for you to get your license renewed. You give in and stop driving after the petrol store owner throws some molotov cocktails at a rival of his. Suddenly, your car becomes totally inoperable in a way that's only explicable by sabotage. Isn't it natural to assume she's behind it, as opposed to the petrol store?
You are free to interpret it however you want. If you start with the assumption that the US is evil, you will quickly find everything they do to be a threat. And it is a free country, so no one will stop you!
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That sounds like a pretty clear statement by Biden.
Question: What's special about this particular statement by Biden that leads you to believe it reflects American foreign policy? It's not uncommon for Blinken or unnamed staffers in the White House to issue statements that "American policy in this area remains unchanged" following a Biden statement that is sharply contrary to the status quo.
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