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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   35352 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 26, 2022

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/r/stupidpol is abuzz with news of both NordStream pipelines being damaged, in what mainstream sources openly speculate to be an attack:

Massive drop in pressure – Nord Stream 2 pipeline apparently partially destroyed

There was an incident on the Russian Baltic Sea pipeline, as confirmed by the Danish shipping authority. The operator Gascade speaks of a sharp drop in pressure in the tube. An accident is considered unlikely. The timing of the accident suggests sabotage.

Stupidpol being stupidpol, blames it all on the west (either the US or UK)... but it feels like the kind of have a point? Russian performance in the war doesn't exactly scream competence, so it would be surprising, if they pulled something like this off, so deep in NATOs turf.

When we were discussing the coming winter, some people were saying "the European gas storage is filled up, it'll be fine", but isn't the gas storage more like a buffer, designed to take advantage of the decreased demand over the summer, to even out the increased demand in winter, working on the assumption that there will still be a constant supply of gas coming in? Does this change the calculus at all?

ENTSOG map, for reference, with the breach occuring around Bornholm Island. Also to note, gas hasn't been flowing through either pipeline anyway: NS2 approval got spiked with the invasion, and NS1 has been shut off since the first of September, with the official excuse being a Russian turbine needing to be replaced and not being able to due to sanctions (though this is isn't true -- Canada, the repairer of such turbines, carved this out of their sanctions). Volumes have been flatlined since then, per the Nord Stream site. Accordingly, any recent projections of European gas scarcity (whether optimistic or pessimistic) shouldn't have been dependent on flow through Nord Stream. One such recent model has the biggest short term salve being energy generation substitution to coal, for example.

It's also very unlikely that Russia is responsible in this light -- the pipelines were already not being used via their equivocations over the turbines with Canada. Throwing Germany's steering wheel out of the window for them is not likely to yield them any concessions in the gas standoff, or poke at any weak points to unravel European solidarity over sanctions. This was likely West-aligned, but beyond that, who can say? These pipelines are notoriously vulnerable, I'd only be moderately surprised if it turned out to be a non-state actor (if only because overland pipelines are much easier targets, even if they don't have as much symbolic mindshare as Nord Stream).

One thing I do wonder is if they even get repaired now? NS1 potentially -- with its fate so uncertain whose to know -- but there isn't even a legally functioning entity on the European side to take responsibility for NS2. Who's justifying that expense?

Well if you envision it as a game of chicken, the exchange has gone something like this:

EU: Stop invading Ukraine, or at least do it more quietly, or we're going to stop buying gas

RF: You're bluffing. You won't stop buying gas, you'll freeze to death. You don't care about the Ukies that much. Give us your money and shut up.

EU: We totally will stop buying gas, even if the poor freeze, we're Americans now we don't care about the poor. We're going to stop buying gas altogether in three months time. Three months time and you're cut off, no more money.

RF: Well, fine, fuck you, no more NS1 pipeline right now. "Maintenance" you know? See if you can hold up your end of the bargain.

Seen in this light, with Russia having recently called the EU's bluff by cutting off gas supplies early, it could make sense that a Western aligned actor attacked the pipeline for the purpose of calling Russia's bluff, "We don't need your stinking pipeline, in fact watch us blow it up." On the theory that Russia, realizing that pipeline diplomacy won't work, will be forced to settle for a lesser deal. Or it could be an escalation of Russia's earlier calling the EUs bluff, hoping to inspire panic in energy markets that will lead to cracks in the pro-war coalition in the West.

Not sure either plan will work. Both sides are far too organized to respond to intimidation in that way.

Euro gas futures markets have been chilling out for a bit, ironically.

The reason why it doesn't make much sense as Russian bluff/escalation is that the only important costs borne by Germany are political costs -- the cost of making difficult, painful, but ultimately strategically correct decisions. Taking that decision out of German hands is a gift. Blowing the pipeline ends the game, no more concessions to be extracted or cracks to leverage. However much Germans suffer this winter is of vastly less strategic import to Russia than the unified front of sanctions against it. That suffering is only a chip to be traded for relief on the latter, and is near useless on its own.

The conspiracy theory I'm seeing is that it's Putin's way of not giving anyone who seeks to replace him a way out. If the pipelines are destroyed and Europe becomes energy-independentish then there's no way for a successor to make a rapprochement take things back to normal. Ship goes down with the captain.

If the pipelines are destroyed and Europe becomes energy-independentish

Not happening. Barring the discovery of some brand new too-cheap-to-meter form of energy generation. there's no way for Europe to become energy independent without a dramatic decrease in quality of life, energy usage and/or population.

They could power up the decommissioned nuclear plants, stop cutting production, and start fracking like there's no tomorrow. But they won't.

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