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Friday Fun Thread for February 14, 2024
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How are you changing your investment/savings strategy as AI timelines get shorter? I’m still in my boring ol’ index funds but have decreased my savings rate down by 5-10%.

I know very little economics, but the popular sentiment seems to be that interest rates will get very high and raw capital will be incredibly important in a post-AGI world. Does this matter for the average person like me who just wants to be financially independent in his 40s?

If AI destroys labor prices totally then we’ll live in a very different society. Why would the majority of the population accept people who happened to be rich in 2025 staying rich forever while everyone else has to live off welfare forever? There’s no way most people will accept that deal. Manna / Elysium scenarios are unlikely, elites aren’t fast enough to cement power so absolutely, while corporations without people with disposable income to consoom product coupled with extreme AI-related deflation will lead to an asset price collapse in every class that will affect the wealthy more than the poor.

My prediction: the government will continue to create more jobs (by regulatory means in the private sector, by making firing people more expensive, and directly in the public sector) and most people will still have to work at some point.

Let's say you have a big inheritance coming in 20 or 30 years and you're worried the government is going to engage in mass wealth redistribution once robots take everyone's job. Let's say you also expect to have some decent savings of your own by then. What's the best way of protecting this wealth? Is there some country you can move to that would likely not take my wealth? Is there some financial arrangement you can enter into to insure against the wealth being taken before you get it?

Diversification of assets. Holding physical assets (art, precious metals in your possession etc). There's plenty of information about how to do this out there, even though it is generally geared towards addressing collapsing nations.

I'd have my primary place of residence be a significant store of wealth. Even if they redistribute everyone's wealth and confiscate investment properties, I can't see them taking anyone's home. If your home happens to be a McMansion/Estate, well someone has to live in it and it's title belongs to you so...

Regarding Inheritance in 20 or 30 years: If you have a good relationship with your family it might be a conversation you can have now. Plenty of parents distribute some wealth to their children long before their deaths for tax reasons and to help them get into expensive property markets. You could get some of your inheritance in your possession now before potential future changes in tax/inheritance laws make a full transfer of wealth impossible.

Hard to predict how the global economy would change. I’m in a not dissimilar position and I’ve made peace with it. Tax havens aren’t a huge help; they exist, ultimately, because the largest Western nations allow them to (like Switzerland’s banking laws until the US decided they’d had enough). There’s no reason not to stash money around if you have it, maybe gamble some in crypto, have some in different things all over the place. But I’m skeptical that it’ll make much of a difference.

The best strategy, I’d say, is to find and move to the highest quality (not just richest) country you can; resilient systems of government and competent peoples will manage the transition best. For my money, the world’s best two countries to weather a big social transition (as a citizen) are Denmark and Switzerland. New Zealand will probably be fine too. The rest may be a crapshoot. I think economic systems may change in unpredictable ways, but the most stable places to live probably won’t.

You can’t borrow against a promised inheritance from someone who can still change their will while alive. Perhaps in countries where parents cannot disinherit their children, like France, it is different - i’m not sure.

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