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So now Reuters is stating that Russia is a "larger, better-equipped enemy"? Really? This is where we're at, after more than 2 years? They actually have the cheek to say this? Every single liberal leftist normie-oriented talking head I ever encountered kept repeating for months that the orc invasion force is completely undersized for the task, their rapist orc cannon fodder is deserting en masse and running from their positions like rabbits, they ran out of artillery shells and missiles, have no food, no gear, no body armor, no tanks, what equipment they have is all a piece of crap etc.
This is nothing new. The pro-war case has long rested on cognitive dissonance, holding these two mutual incompatible views at the same time:
Russia is so weak that one more round of $X billion will win the war for Ukraine.
Russia is so strong that if we don't stop them here, they'll take Estonia, Poland, Germany!
No, it doesn’t.
I’ve laid out the case for deterrence before. That only requires Russia to think they can succeed quickly and easily. Correcting their estimate is valuable.
In the world where we refused to supply any of them, Russia could exert power over its NATO neighbors.
I agree on the theory of deterrence. I am willing to sacrifice 1,000-10,000 Ukrainians to teach Russia a lesson.
How many are you willing to sacrifice?
In the abstract sense of complicity that you’re using? Quite a few. So long as they keep doing it, I’m willing to be an enabler.
Yes, I do think conscription pushes the balance in favor of surrender. No, I don’t think it’s obvious that the modal Ukrainian soldier no longer wishes to risk death.
"Surrender" implies something like Hirohito in 1945. This doesn't represent the current reality of the conflict. No one is talking about surrender. Some people are talking about peace, which means a negotiated peace. It means Russia would get some of what they want, but certainly not all.
Why? They’re winning for now and Putin’s position is secure. The Russians are in a position to choose not to settle for anything less than maximalist aims. If the Ukrainians balk, Putin can simply dither for six months and the situation will be worse.
We do not know the West limits on escalation. We saw the US dither on aid until it felt like Ukraine was losing and Putin would eventually break thru and maybe take Kiev again.
If Ukranian lines got to a point of collapse the West would still have options. An imminent breakthrough does put things like Anduril tech as suggested in play, Poland entering with a superior fresh army, trad American AirPower. The west may not care much about Ukranian lives, but the closer it comes to threatening core Europe which Poland may be changes a lot of calculus.
The Biden administration has clearly been anti-winning the war but when we hit losing the war points things get done. It’s almost like inflation where 3% inflation the fed is suppose to hike and 1% inflation they are suppose to ease but the 2% line is keeping the war in no one winning position.
If Ukraine cared about their men’s lives they may be wise to lose a few battles at minimal causalities.
This is like a guy who has an old car that barely works, and every time it breaks down he patches it up just enough to keep running again. He doesn't have some hidden Freudian motive about "preferring to not have a reliable car", he'd actually like to have a reliable car, but he can't think beyond the immediate moment. If the car is capable of moving, he gets distracted by Twitter or rebuilding his computer or trying to get a complete set of Michael Whelan covers of Edgar Rice Burroughs' Barsoom stories, or whatever. Only when smoke actually starts coming out of the hood, or the clicking noise gets too annoying, will he spend a bit of time to tinker with it.
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