domain:parrhesia.substack.com
DuplexFields
Ask me how the FairTax proposal works. All four Political Compass quadrants should love it.
9m ago
It usually connotes inner-city and coastal city/suburb people of "low Hispanic" or Mestizo ethnicity. Albuquerque's Chicano populace has a culture more akin to that of Los Angelinos than the Hispanic / Latino people in the rest of New Mexico, for example.
omfalos
18m ago
I wouldn't say an invasion is likely, but China has an ace up their sleeve which they can use to win a war against Taiwan, and the ability to win affects the probability of invasion. If Taiwanese shore defenses, the US Navy, and the US Air Force are strong enough to defeat China's initial invasion force in a conventional amphibious assault, China can launch a second wave and give it an improved chance of success by DETONATING SUPER EMPS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER TAIWAN TO FRY THE ELECTRONICS OF ENEMY FORCES.
SkoomaDentist
19m ago
They can make real sounding very mid music
TBF, that barely differs from the top 40 these days.
felis-parenthesis
26m ago
I seem to be missing vital context, necessary to follow the law review article. In the United Kingdom the problem of "who pulled the trigger" is solved by the notion of joint enterprise
Until 2016, the courts interpreted the law to mean that if two people set out to commit an offence, and in the course of doing so, one of them commits a different offence, the other person will also be guilty of that offence if they had foreseen the possibility that it might be committed.
For example, if two people set out to commit a robbery, but in the course of the robbery one of them pulls out a knife and commits a murder, the other party will be guilty of murder on a joint enterprise basis if he foresaw this as a possibility, but did not himself intend it.
Thinking about that myself, it strikes me that even UK law is not quite ruthless enough. Here is my theory of how a "two robbers, one shot" case should go.
"proof beyond reasonable doubt" is not a terminal value. The actual goal is to solve an optimization where the two big desiderata pull in opposite directions. First, one wants to live under a justice system that suppresses robbery and murder, so that one does not get robbed or murdered. Second, one notices that justice systems tend to turn into injustice systems. A naively designed justice system will turn into a graver risk than that posed by robbers and murders constrained by no justice system at all. At least in the absence of a justice system one may possess weapons and fight back.
The social dynamic is that a naively designed justice system that suppresses robbery and murder is a power honey pot that attracts the worst kind of people. In time the police force is manned by two kind of people. The first are smart criminals who join the police to abuse police powers and rob and murder under color of law. The second kind of person starts of good, but is corrupted by absolute power and the malign influence of the first kind of person.
We have solutions to these problems. We split the justice system into three parts. The police investigate. The Crown Prosecution Service presents the case to the judge. The judge listens attentively to the defense explaining why the prosecutor is wrong. The instrumental value "proof beyond reasonable doubt" is there to poison the honey pot. Only nerdy, wannabe Sherlock Holmes become detectives and their personal motivation is to crack the case and find out who really did it. Needing to provide convincing proof for the prosecutor to present to the judge filters out personality types who would otherwise be draw to the power wielded by the justice system. The wrong kind of person is filtered out because the system wields power as a system; no individual gets to indulge their personal power trip.
Return to the "two robbers, one shot" conundrum. We don't actually care which one pulled the trigger, and are happy to hang both of them. That works well to further the first goal of suppressing robbery and murder. If we care who pulled the trigger, a smart robber might find himself a stupid and violent partner, to do the bloody part and take the drop if the victim dies. Ugh! We don't want that. But what of the second, more troubling goal, of poisoning the power honey pot, to avoid attracting the sort of person, attracted to police work for power and personal gain? The prosecution still need to prove the robbery element beyond reasonable doubt. And they still need to prove the murder, except for exact attribution, beyond reasonable doubt. I think that the honey pot remains poisoned, even without needing to say which robber fired the fatal shot.
VelveteenAmbush
Prime Intellect did nothing wrong
30m ago
I'm pretty comfortable extending this to the electorate
You shouldn't be. It's just not reasonable to extrapolate your personal social experience to the electorate, no matter how badly you want to.
BadCivilization
43m ago
Hunter Biden is certainly not being prosecuted to the full extent of the law. The government had an open-and-shut tax evasion case against him and deliberately allowed the statute of limitations to expire. The government is making a minimal show of prosecuting the other chargers.
Harlequin5942
46m ago
Do Trump and the Trumpists back down from China in this case? I was under the impression that they tended to be anti-China and at least anti-anti-Russian, but the anti-Chinese sentiment was more in 2015-2020. I don't hear so much of it from them any more, but that might be because anti-Chinese sentiment is now commonplace among Democrats, including Biden, whereas e.g. Obama and Hillary seemed to be more the reverse of Trump regarding China and Russia.
jkf
49m ago
Sure, but they take all the dumb rules to heart -- go on there and ask about cutting an inch off a shotgun barrel or something sometime. And they won't stay home -- voting is a civic duty, remember? And these guys are all about the civic duty.
gattsuru
50m ago
Okay, so is the answer to the hypothetical then that yes the Federalist Papers would have been legal but they would have needed to include a "I'm James Madison and I approve this message" style notification?
...
zeke5123a
1hr ago
Okay. You don’t believe in civil liberties. Got it. You also don’t believe in the burden of proof.
fishtwanger
shirking duties randomly made up by people who hate us
1hr ago
OK. Perhaps you could try to explain? That's one of the things I was asking for. Just a few paragraphs would help; there's no need for a 5,000 word essay.
aardvark2
1hr ago
Russia is not having, but they will if what you see as most desirable outcome happens.
I support ignorant war-mongers like you to go in trenches and fight.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
1hr ago
China implements air and sea border controls to make Taiwan a self-governing administrative region of China. There is no need for a direct attack on Taiwan or any blockade of usual commerce.
IMO any attempt to do this will probably get seen as a bluff and called pretty quickly. Any competent US administration could challenge the blockade and force China to either back down and lose face or fire the first shots of a hot war, which I think would probably sell to the American public as an unjustified attack on an otherwise peaceful, above-board action (say, a US Navy cargo ship and a destroyer making a port call in Taipei).
Attacking the US directly would be pretty foolish, IMO. Of your options, the "Korea 1950" seems most plausible.
- The wars in Ukraine and Israel are straining US defense production almost to breaking point already, however, waiting a few years could see China confronted with an America and EU that brought a ton more military production capacity online.
I think the time for this argument was 12 months ago: the US just opened a completely new artillery shell plant this week. That production capacity is presumably already starting to come online. It's a bit less clear that the scaled up capacity aligns with what Taiwan would need (more anti-ship missiles, fewer artillery shells?), but they don't exactly publicize all their capabilities and investments, and I wouldn't completely assume incompetence.
AshLael
Just here to farm downvotes
1hr ago
What's the tribal landscape like? It it Ashkenazi vote one way while Mizrahi vote another way, or do things split in some other way?
aardvark2
1hr ago
It looks like you're missed sliders1234's point "some multiple" (again: SOME MULTIPLE) which and that it's easier to recruit people for defensive war which would have offset Russia's population advantage.
Yeah, I don't completely trust the NYT regarding coverage of the Gaza war, but they're not as bad as on some other issues. It's not so much that they're unbiased, but that they seem to have several conflicting biases which sometimes cancel out but sometimes produce divergent biased narratives. This particular article seemed much better than average, maybe because of its historical focus, on a particular issue, that in a certain sense doesn't have anything directly to do with the Gazan conflict.
fishtwanger
shirking duties randomly made up by people who hate us
1hr ago
But they seem incapable. The article looks at how the Shin Bet (Israeli FBI?) is systematically hampered in investigating crimes by settlers against Palestinians, at all levels, and can't even trust its own members.
In my city, there's been a massive increase in gun violence since the BLM protests in 2020. It doesn't seem gang-related, it seems like people feuding, independent drug dealers warring over turf, that sort of thing. The police, in addition to being demoralized, are largely incapable of doing anything about it because the surrounding community won't talk to them, and at least in some cases actively works to hide evidence. Are those police complicit?
We've also had a wave of petty crime because a city attorney refused to prosecute certain types of crime. Eventually this meant that the police stopped making arrests, and then people stopped reporting the crime (and then the crime rate statistics went down, but not because crime stopped happening). That was from just one guy in government making a stand, backed by enough political support that he couldn't be easily replaced. It sounds like Israel has many more people like that.
I suppose the boring answer is to, in whatever order possible, a) get those parties out of government, b) reform government agencies at all levels to enforce the law even-handedly, and c) actually go after anyone and everyone involved in the crimes and cover-ups. Hopefully with a side order of d) removing the settlements completely. But I literally cannot recall an instance of a modern state pulling something like this off. That might well be on me, though - if you've got some examples, I'm all ears.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
1hr ago
Georgia is jammed up due to the crooked prosecutor, and the documents case is jammed up due to the usual FBI malfeasance combined with a Trump-friendly judge, so neither is likely to matter in the election.
The EFF has suffered in recent years because the most salient culture war issue in South Africa, especially to poor urban [black] proletarians (who would presumably be the core audience for this kind of socialist party), is immigration from elsewhere in Southern and Central Africa putting downward pressure on wages for working class urban black people. The EFF, as a socialist party with vaguely anti-imperialist and pan-Africanist views, endorsed and then partially walked back an open borders position that was extremely unpopular with those voters. Anti-white animus isn’t popular enough in SA for the EFF to exceed 12% of the vote; it’s possible they could go higher in the event of an economic collapse driving some kind of populist socialist sentiment, but I don’t think that’s really the same thing.
The ANC becoming the Xhosa party and the Zulus leaving is probably good. It means that the DA should be able to participate in most or all coalitions, and in any case increases the chance of the parties curtailing the most egregious corruption to try to compete for the vote, which the ANC has never previously had to do.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
1hr ago
I think there are some bad things in the religion, like ethnocentrism.
Jew-hater
No more than a Jew who critiques Christian culture is a Christ-hater.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
1hr ago
pm_me_passion
אֲנָשִׁים נֹשְׂאֵי מָגֵן וְחֶרֶב וְדֹרְכֵי קֶשֶׁת וּלְמוּדֵי מִלְחָמָה
1hr ago
He asked if he’s suffering from Gell-Mann amnesia, I answered in the affirmative. It’s not throwing shade, it’s telling a person who doesn’t know algebra and calculus that he can’t contribute to advanced physics. Your response is “well teach him!”, to which I reply: “no”.
pm_me_passion
אֲנָשִׁים נֹשְׂאֵי מָגֵן וְחֶרֶב וְדֹרְכֵי קֶשֶׁת וּלְמוּדֵי מִלְחָמָה
1hr ago
· Edited 1hr ago
I say trivial things that require no citation. Water is wet, some birds can fly, Trump didn’t actually say he supports Nazis in Charlottesville but some people act like he did.
pm_me_passion
אֲנָשִׁים נֹשְׂאֵי מָגֵן וְחֶרֶב וְדֹרְכֵי קֶשֶׁת וּלְמוּדֵי מִלְחָמָה
1hr ago
Politics is a bit similar everywhere, in that people don’t actually vote on policy and the resulting government is nobody’s 1st choice. But when reporting on Israel, suddenly this fact is forgotten.
Israeli politics is tribal, and foreigners don’t understand the tribal landscape. The religious right gets most of its power from the “zionist religious” portion of the population, which is mostly a religious caste. There’s competition over who gets to wield this power, but it’s basically a constant portion of the population that they get to “represent”. That’s with a small caveat, that Likud also has representation from the religious right these days so they’ve also started siphoning those votes a bit.
My church used to sing a song with the line, "Red and Yellow, Black and White, they are precious in His sight, Jesus loves the little children of the world."
These Boomer "phrenotypes" have been remixed by Millennials, with "Red" and half of "Yellow" being combined into Brown, and the rest of "Yellow" being merged into White.
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