domain:drmanhattan16.substack.com
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1d ago
No disagreement here. They could cause a lot of damage sure. Israel is crazy fragile.
But Israel has a lot of heavy gear. They'd win after a few days if they weren't worried about hostages (which in this scenario, they'd allow them to be collateral damage, I would)
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1d ago
Totally
I don't blame the Israeli people for being mad. I just don't think disproportionate violence is okay, even if provoked
I understand why everyone feels how they do, but as the peanut gallery I'm pointing and judging
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1d ago
I actually don't know a ton any them so I'd love to hear why?
Their air dominance over Iran was pretty gangster though. SEAD is not easy.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1d ago
The Viet Cong didn't win, the Americans got tired of fighting and gave up
That is winning. It's a shitty unglamorous way to win, but they accomplished their objectives, and America did not. The Americans could have stuck around and stamped them into oblivion with unlimited political will, but they didn't have it, so they left.
Ergo, the Israelis have no choice but to continue fighting.
I agree but also don't. Money and political will aren't infinite, they'll have to pull back and scale down eventually. The only way this really ends-ends is genocide, and they can't do that, so they'll have to give up eventually.
hanikrummihundursvin
1d ago
As I've just said, the point wasn't about jews in particular but the phenomenon of outside population groups reaping the harvest and then leaving when it's time to till the field.
Some people feel like jews have a special case to plead regarding this, but I disagreed. Noting how many different people suffered in WW2, not just jews. Meaning jews don't have a special case to plead. You try to ignore this point by asking about jews in Germany, when in reality my point stands regardless of those particular circumstance, as the suffering of jews in Germany does not trump the suffering of Europeans elsewhere. Whose governments did plenty to get them into an early grave.
Not everyone is equally patriotic, not everyone shares the same understanding of what a nation is. But there is a very visceral line drawn in the sand that demonstrates that at some point you don't really qualify as a national. Or that your ideation of what a nation is was never serious beyond the self serving justifications of a parasite wanting to leech off it's host.
You claim I made arguments that jews aren't real citizens and that's just a lie. I made no claims in that direction whatsoever beyond stating that the jewish family that is hoarding passports reminds me of that visceral line drawn in the sand of brown fighting age immigrants fleeing Ukraine.
Maybe you feel the need to police any potentially negative connotation relating to jews, for whatever reason. Or maybe it's something else. But don't lie about what I've said or what I mean or try to drag the conversation into a direction that justifies your compulsion.
urquan
Hold! What you are doing to us is wrong! Why do you do this thing?
1d ago
I had a job once that required keeping clocks in sync between all of the computers in a company. For servers we decided clocks could drift only one millisecond, but for desktops we allowed up to 100ms. This required modifications to Windows because Microsoft only imposed one minute clock discipline at the time (only improving on this policy after 2016, which is probably not early enough for whatever piece of shit the jail installed).
Was there a specific use-case for the highly strict clock synchronization?
Also, thanks for the write-up. Computer timekeeping has always been a personal nemesis (NTP sync errors, RTCs failing, random clock drift, time being an hour off randomly due to strange bugs, Windows and Linux not playing nicely on a dual-boot system even when I beg windows to use UTC, there are so many problems) so it’s interesting to read about how complex it is to keep clocks in sync.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
1d ago
Yeah it's an absolute mess. At this point I honestly think both sides deserve each other. They've built an incredible human suffering machine and now they get to ask wallow in it.
I feel awful for the children though, they didn't choose this.
anti_dan
1d ago
Afghanistan is instructive only in the fact that it shows that weak occupations will not be successful. If you are arguing using Afghanistan as an example, the only logical argument is that Israel should be more brutal, allow in less aid, bomb every building they have credible intelligence houses a Hamas agent, etc, etc. In short, if you are referencing the failure of Afghanistan, the most logical argument vis-a-vis Israel becomes that the US should authorize total war, a blockade of all supplies, and a creeping artillery barrage until nothing is left.
If that is not what you think is a good idea, perhaps use some other example.
oats_son
1d ago
I believe the three options I listed are exhaustive, so I'm curious if you think there is a fourth that I missed or if you think one of the other two that I thought was impossible is actually possible. Or perhaps you think they are all impossible?
I can't think of a fourth option that wouldn't just kick the can down the road. The first two are technically possible, but not many people would opt for it, as it's basically a worst case scenario.
The Germans famously also wanted to kill (all?) Jews and now they perhaps kowtow excessively. Japan was raping Nanking and now they produce anime. It is possible for a foreign power to change culture, drastically.
Those both involved a huge amount of death and destruction and both of those nations ended up surrendering. If that's the solution we're going with, how much of a limited amount of your first option would you tolerate? Shooting people acquiring food is absolutely on the table for that one. I guess the end state there is an impromptu group of civilians form and say that they're tired of getting bombed and that they will become the government and carry on the policing of their radicals, including any Hamas remnants, so that terrorist attacks stop happening.
anti_dan
1d ago
So basically conflating events happening in 2 completely separate countries at this point.
aldomilyar
1d ago
Kneebar's pretty idiot proof but hard to get in the current meta.
SerialStateLineXer
1d ago
But what if you lose?
Would you rather be 95th percentile in Lesotho, or 40th percentile in America?
Revealed preference suggests that most people would rather "lose" in a wealthy country full of highly-skilled people than "win" in a third-world country run by incompetent people.
kky
1d ago
The argument from @Gaashk stands, I think. We didn’t need slaves in the northern states since the founding, in the west since the early 19th, and the south since the mid-19th. Suddenly in the late 20th we discover slavery to be a necessary institution for agricultural work that was heretofore done even by so cushy an ethnicity as the English. Construction, same deal. What has changed? Does nobody sense something wrong in the fact that the Land of the Free is suddenly regressing so far as to demand a permanent underclass? This is why I don’t trust any of the economic statements on this matter. The whole argument has no sense of history to it.
anti_dan
1d ago
Why are Gaza and West Bank non-viable? I am quite confident that if Gaza was repopulated with a bunch North Dakotans and West Bank with a bunch of South Dakotans both would quickly become prosperous countries.
Also, I am consistently confused by the "2 state solution" rhetoric (depicted in you post with the phrase "keeping them split"). The "Palestinian" territories are non-contiguous and have been for almost a century now. There is no good reason for them to be a united state! That stupid idea proved a failure with Pakistan and Burma and would be stupid in the current situation as well. When you talk about a 2 state, instead of 3 state, solution you make yourself seem unserious IMO.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
1d ago
You seriously exaggerate the ungovernability of India, your description fits Afghanistan better. Modi has a 75% approval rating. America is way more fractious.
In my opinion your hypothetical Raj would have to be significantly MORE brutal on the population than the current military operations conducted by Israel are to have any hope at success.
The key distinction is that a civilizing mission has an obvious aim that can guide decisionmaking. There is no obvious aim that drives Israeli decisionmaking right now except kicking the dog in the balls. It is entirely not obvious how this is supposed to lead to a long term solution.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
1d ago
I'm not sure if I'm missing something here. Has there ever been a method devised that starves everyone except for exclusively babies?
I admit I'm not an expert in siege tactics. However, one modest proposal might be to not order soldiers to fire on people trying to acquire food. That seems like the kind of thing that might cause starving babies on the margin.
From where I'm standing, that looks literally impossible.
I believe the three options I listed are exhaustive, so I'm curious if you think there is a fourth that I missed or if you think one of the other two that I thought was impossible is actually possible. Or perhaps you think they are all impossible?
Some dogs are just impossible and dangerous and they get put down, kind of a downer for this metaphor.
Indeed, but as the article suggests, there are people who have managed to train this particular dog.
You'd have to specify what that looks like instead of gesturing vaguely at it for me to take it seriously. How do you get from "kill all Jews which we hate with religious zealotry and take back the Holy Land which they stole from us 70 years ago" to "yeah 2 states are okay, I'm okay with giving up my important holy sites now"?
The Germans famously also wanted to kill (all?) Jews and now they perhaps kowtow excessively. Japan was raping Nanking and now they produce anime. It is possible for a foreign power to change culture, drastically.
Rov_Scam
1d ago
Westlaw and Nexis aren't going to include trial level cases that didn't result in published opinions; that's not really what it's for. The answer is that you have your paralegal look into it and prepare for disappointment. I wish I could just search my local court by subject so I could find a cheat sheet when I have to file something I've never filed before, but no such function exists. I could give you my process but it's useless unless you're concerned about cases filed in Allegheny County, and even then it involves looking at a lot of cases and requires access to back issues of the local legal journal. The fivver people were probably too embarrassed to tell you that your request was impossible to fulfill. DOJ usually issues press releases for convictions, so you could try looking there.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
1d ago
I get something new out of The Abolition of Man and The Great Divorce each time I read them.
nomenym
1d ago
My point being that Israel has another path: re-educating and reconciling with the Palestinian civilian population such that they no longer support Hamas (or whoever).
But why would they do that? If I were a Palestinian, I'd want revenge--terrible, horrible, unconscionable revenge forever, and I'd still go to heaven.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
1d ago
Relevant passage from The Great Divorce, spoken by Lewis's spiritual guide:
“There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God, "Thy will be done," and those to whom God says, in the end, "Thy will be done." All that are in Hell, choose it. Without that self-choice there could be no Hell. No soul that seriously and constantly desires joy will ever miss it. Those who seek find. Those who knock it is opened.”
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
1d ago
I think it's a great source to quickly get up to speed on any given hobby or subculture's memes.
ActuallyATleilaxuGhola
Axolotl Tank Class of '24
1d ago
There are two types of people you will never convince:
- Those who believe they have a vested interest in this not being seen as a conspiracy
- Hardcore "nothing ever happens" people
I really think that, if Epstein were not apparently connected to intelligence, powerful people in government, and were not Jewish, nearly zero people would argue that he killed himself. There are simply too many "coincidences." But there are people who like the political status quo (or at least despise the upstarts trying to disrupt the status quo), and there are other people who perceive the emphasis on Epstein's Jewishness/Mossad connections as dangerous to themselves (I have sympathy for this second group).
I don't know what to make of the "nothing ever happens" people. I have a friend like this, and I gave up talking to them about anything a long time ago. Any time I bring up some current event, I get some variation of
- "Eh, it'll blow over and everyone will forget in a month."
- "Actually it's always been like that."
- "I don't think that will actually change much."
- "I dunno, that sounds too far-fetched to be true."
- "I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. I can see both sides."
It's closely related to the "enlightened centrism" meme. These sorts of folks are not "arguing to understand."
Now the one camera that was working has footage released from it only for it to be likely edited video that doesn't even provide a meaningful perspective even if it wasn't edited (so why is it changed and had parts removed? Was something incidentally caught on one of the cameras they didn't shut down?) and a full minute missing along with the other smaller possible cuts, a cut that was completely unmentioned in the inspector general's report but suddenly shows up now. With an excuse that the "missing minute" is a standard reset and the recordings aren't operating at that time yet it now appears to exist according to government leakers.
I don't have a dog in this fight but this doesn't unsettle me at all.
So. I had a job once that required keeping clocks in sync between all of the computers in a company. For servers we decided clocks could drift only one millisecond, but for desktops we allowed up to 100ms. This required modifications to Windows because Microsoft only imposed one minute clock discipline at the time (only improving on this policy after 2016, which is probably not early enough for whatever piece of shit the jail installed). That means Microsoft allowed Windows computers to be up to one minute off of the real time, which in practice meant any two computers could be almost two minutes apart in their timestamping (e,g, one was a minute slow and one was a minute fast).
You may think computers should be able to keep time without trouble, but nothing can be further from the truth. They suck at it, due to interesting physical properties[1]. They can be slow or fast, and it can vary over the course of the day. Sometimes the drift adds up to tens of minutes a day. Without any correction they drift and drift and could be days or weeks off from the actual current time. It's ugly. The way they correct for this is by coming up with a clever protocol that pings well known atomic clocks over the internet. Though modern solutions can also recruit GPS.[2]
Anyway, watching the time jump forward by a minute on a recording system doesn't strike me as that odd. Especially when it's around midnight, which is when people schedule automated tasks, like "stop writing to 2019-08-09.mov and start writing 2019-08-10.mov", to me this is not at all suspicious.
I don't know for a fact that this is what happened, of course. And I certainly don't know how jailhouse surveillance systems work. But I have had to explain in legal matters why recordings in networked computer systems can have such variation in timestamps. People crinkle their eyebrows when one networked system says this thing precedes this other thing, even though the event with the later timestamp caused the event with the earlier timestamp, use but it's generally the sad truth.
Anyway, I'm open to believing he was murdered. But you're going to have to wake me up when the missing minute is revealed and it shows masked people holding stun guns hopping over the railing. A one-ish minute forward jump in a recording at midnight just doesn't phase this systems engineer at all.
(I'm not going to evaluate the claim that the missing minute exists because anonymous sources may as well be epistemic status: complete fabrication at this point. But also I'd rather not try to imagine how incredibly stupid a jailhouse surveillance system could be)
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Basically, computers are made of metal and metal expands and contracts as it heats and cools. Since temperatures around computers and inside of them vary all of the time (especially based on workload) this causes its own internal timekeeping to drift from real time as the distance electricity has to travel varies based on temperature. This varies the number of cycles that happen per second.
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It's also not as easy as just check the atomic clock time and set your computer's time to that one. If you find your computer's time is too fast (minutes ahead of real time), you can't fix it by just slamming the clock backwards in time. That fucks a lot of applications up. So they come up with this thing called "slewing", which basically is an adjustment to the computer to count perceived ticks of a clock as less than whole ticks so it catches up. Some time keeping policies will also slew speedup adjustments if the clock is behind, but it's less destructive to application logic to make the clock jump forward, so you see that from time to time in logs as well. E.g. a one minute jump forward is safe, though it makes people crinkle eyebrows if it's in a timestamped video.
Agreed.
I predict both sides will refuse to understand this and the cycle of violence will perpetuate for our lifetimes
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