domain:jessesingal.substack.com
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
11hr ago
What did you think criminal defense would be like?
Sunshine, rainbows, drinking champagne on unicorns, perfect 10s throwing themselves at me, etc. You know, the usual.
quiet_NaN
11hr ago
I knew when I wrote this that someone would come up with another exotic counterexample. I will not try to argue that flying a plane into a mountain is a special case of going the wrong way on a highway either.
Fine. I retract my claim and say that they are the second most harmful commonly occurring suicides, and patiently wait for someone to explain to me why that is still wrong.
quiet_NaN
11hr ago
With most things, there are trade-offs. Like Scott, I stand beside the snakes and traders.
Cops have a non-zero systemic murder rate. This tells us fuck-all if they are net positive or not. Perhaps they are basically a criminal gang running a protection racket and kill everyone who does not pay up. Or perhaps they are mostly good once per 50 years two crooked cops will use their uniform to cover up a 2nd degree murder committed by one of them by planting a gun on the victim.
Or consider organizations with regard to systemic child abuse. Any organization whose members will have contact with kids will have a nonzero systemic child abuse rate, because you can sink any amount of resources into reducing the risk and organizations generally run on finite resources. However, there is a vast difference between "we should have considered the fact that the kid was waving at their teacher as evidence that they were in an abusive relationship and started an investigation" and "once we got too many complaints about the priest touching kids, we simply transferred them to another church".
Likewise with collateral damage. Either claiming that no civilian casualties are acceptable or that any are okay is foolish. Killing one civilian for every 50 killed enemies would in most wars be a conduct noble beyond belief, while killing 50 civilians per killed enemy would be excessively brutal.
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
11hr ago
Thank you for taking the time to look into it yourself! All I did was copy and paste your prompt and egg the model on. It might be interesting to try the Agent mode, either on this prompt or a new one. I do have access, and I can try it when I get the chance.
SnapDragon
11hr ago
Yup, just came here to mention XKCD. Gotta love the emdash in the disclaimer, too!
Rov_Scam
12hr ago
So these are some curious results, and mirror the issues I was having with the models I tried. For Grim Reaper of Love, it does correctly not that 45Cat lists a May 1966 release date (which every model was able to do), and also correctly notes the May 28 Billboard review, which it was the only model to actually find, since most of the others just defaulted to the first date charted. The curious issue is with the ARSA data. It did indeed appear on the WLS June 10 chart. However, this was not the earliest chart it appeared on. That would be the May 9 KBLA chart, and the prior Monday would be May 2. The even more curious thing about it is that the single appeared in 35 charts documented by ARSA prior to the June 10 WLS chart, so I don't know why it would have picked that one. This is, I guess, somewhat of an improvement; the only other model I tried that even claimed to use ARSA data was Grok, and it simply made up entries that didn't exist! The most interesting thing about this, though, is that it didn't actually follow the instructions. Maybe I could have been a little more clear, but the instructions said:
If ARSA and Billboard data are both available, use the earlier date
Maybe I should have specified that I wanted the earliest date, which would have been the date of the May 28 review, making the correct date based on the data the model actually used to be May 23, 1966. Then again, I thought I specified early that the month of release given by 45Cat and RYM should take priority, so even if this wasn't clear, it should have preferred the May date. In any event, it didn't get the correct ARSA date, so this counts as a fail.
Moving on to Feel the Heat, US Copyright data gives a publication date of June 16, 1980. Maybe this was the search engine it was trying to use, but it nonetheless didn't use it. I give it props for using Cash Box, which I don't even use that much because the available data is fragmentary and not easily searchable (or at least it was when I started doing this a decade ago), and it does point to the correct issue. However, it runs into the same problem of following instructions when it was told to use the date preceding publication but inexplicably picks a date after the date of the issue. Honestly, there must be something up with the pro model, because the free ones I tried didn't seem to have any problem following instructions, and at least gave plausible dates based on the information they had. Here I get two dates that are not only incorrect, but don't actually follow the rule. I had high hopes for this but at this point I can only consider it a failure. If you're interested in running this further, I can try to make the rules a little more explicit and find some other releases to test how it can do different things, but suffice it to say my opinions of AI capabilities haven't appreciably improved.
Supah_Schmendrick
12hr ago
I've thought a lot about this issue for the last ten years, as many have, and it's hard to escape the feeling that public consent has been laundered by keeping the spotlight firmly on rare, sympathetic cases while the intent of campaigners has always been significantly more far-reaching.
This...seems like a fully generalizable description of basically all political activism in WEIRD democracies??
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
12hr ago
Man, I genuinely do not understand the intuition that drives people to think that there must be a catch to Ozempic. You are doing better by couching your claim in terms of likelihood, but even then, I think this is misguided.
The universe is cold and uncaring, but it isn't actively malevolent. There is no law of physics that demands some kind of equivalent exchange here. Sometimes we just get lucky.
Biology has homeostasis, but homeostasis can break, and it can also be reset.
Of particular concern is the number of people who are using this product for aesthetic reasons rather than as medically necessary treatment.
What drives such a belief? Do you think that drugs care about the moral pulchritude of those taking them? We discovered semaglutide in the saliva of Gila Monsters, which aren't known to be particularly discerning moral actors.
If someone with high blood pressure takes antihypertensives, their blood pressure falls. If someone with a normal BP takes them, theirs falls too. I would obviously prescribe them to the first case, and not the other two (at least for the control of blood pressure), but the mechanism remains the same.
homeostasis will eventually strike leading to the body becoming less sensitive to semiglutide and therefore the person cannot feel full."
This is a reasonable concern, but I think it might misinterpret what homeostasis is trying to do in obesity. The obese state isn't a healthy, well-regulated system that semaglutide is mischievously disrupting. For many people with obesity, the homeostatic system is already broken. Their bodies are defending a pathologically high set point for weight, ignoring satiety signals that should be firing, and managing insulin poorly.
Think of it less like a functioning thermostat that you're tricking, and more like a thermostat that's already broken and stuck at 90 degrees (Fahrenheit, I hope, if that's Celsius then turn off the oven) . The house is sweltering, the air conditioner is running itself ragged, and the occupants are miserable. Semaglutide comes along, and it isn't just put a bag of ice placed on the temperature sensor to fool it. It seems to actually repair the sensor.
If I hadn't been awake for 48 hours, I might have linked to a recent paper that semaglutide reduces the risk of Alzheimer's by 50% even in people without diabetes. You can look that up. You might even simply read Scott's deep dive on the topic.
Semaglutide is a miracle. Such mundane miracles are rare, but they do happen. Penicillin was quasi-miraculous, but even in this age of people sweating bullets about super-bugs, antibiotics save far more lives directly than they take.
I don't know about the advisability of taking the long on your short, but I'd probably benefit from taking the opposite end of a normal bet instead of trying to convince you. I strongly expect to make money on that 1:1 exchange if that were somehow feasible.
Unexpected follow-up to my 2023 post:
As you probably know if you are an American, under the MUTCD (Manual of Uniform Traffic-Control Devices), generally speaking:
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The longitudinal lines that separate lanes traveling in the same direction are white. (§ 3B.06 ¶ 01)
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A double solid white line indicates that crossing the line is prohibited. (¶ 12)
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A single solid white line indicates that crossing the line is discouraged. (¶ 06)
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A broken (dashed) white line (12-foot segments separated by 36-foot gaps) indicates that crossing the line is not discouraged or prohibited. (¶ 05)
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A dotted white line (3-foot segments separated by 9-foot gaps) separates a through lane from an auxiliary lane that will diverge or end soon. One might say it indicates that crossing the line is encouraged, so that you don't accidentally get stuck in an auxiliary lane when you want to be in a through lane (or vice versa). (§ 3B.07)
The dotted line was not made mandatory until the 2009 edition of the MUTCD, so roadway authorities still are in the process of updating existing stripes. The project that I described in my 2023 post included a large interchange, in which I changed quite a few existing stripes from broken to dotted. After the project passed out of my hands and into the hands of the bigwigs and the Construction people, I largely forgot about it. We had to draw up a several-sheet addendum, because the pavement recommendation had expired and the updated version was significantly different; we had to draw up a one-sheet change of plan, because the Structures people accidentally told us to pave over a bridge that shouldn't be paved over; and the project's resident engineer had some questions regarding (1) utility coordination and (2) whether a bunch of cooking oil that had leaked from a restaurant's dumpster into the roadway would negatively affect the pavement treatment's adhesion to the existing surface. But that was it.
Fast-forward to this week. The project presumably was completed a while ago, though I don't recall specifically when. The project area is quite close to my office, but I never had any reason to drive through it since completion—until today, purely by chance. As I drive, I think to myself: "Hey, where are all the dotted lines that I drew on the plans?"
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The resident engineer is supposed to ensure that the contractor adheres to the plans. But apparently he dropped the ball here.
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After "substantial completion", the resident engineer is supposed to call the designer out for a field visit so that the designer can approve the work for "final completion" or point out any problems that need to be fixed before it can be approved. But the resident engineer never did that, either.
It presumably is way too late for this error to be fixed, so I don't know whether my boss will bother to explain the situation to the resident engineer's boss. But at least it isn't my fault.
pbmonster
12hr ago
For keeping me around? Same as most other team sports: charismatic coach, fun team mates, good built in social scene. Do you regularly go out for drinks/dinner after practice? Are your team mates... normal? I stopped kickboxing and BJJ because those attract a type of guys I can't hang with, in large numbers.
For starting? Convince me this is either more fun or a better workout than football/basketball/handball. Since I like the look of the classic swimmer physique, I'm already predisposed to believing the workout angle. Maybe stand next to your most broad-shouldered-and-slim-waisted team mate while recruiting.
Also, how's the learning curve? Am I going to be useless for the first year? That's no fun, I'd rather run after a ball if that's the case.
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
12hr ago
Suicides by train are only topped by intentionally driving on a highway in the wrong direction as far as damage to broader society goes.
The pilot of Germanwings flight 9525 would like to have a word with you.
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
12hr ago
The children are wrong.
Unless, that is, you (the general you, not you personally) actually want the increasingly totalitarian future in which humans are no more than the expendable and replaceable cells of some superorganism. I mean, we've been headed there for some four thousand years now, and most likely nothing can stop it in the long run, but allowing people to defend themselves looked like a pretty good roadblock for that particular prospect.
Southkraut
The rain fell gentlier.
12hr ago
I'm glad I remembered them as "Napoleon in Russia" diagrams. Finally, my university days were good for something.
wayfarer
12hr ago
car repair workshop/factories may have posters with almost naked women - is it also something that would not happen in USA?
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
12hr ago
I am glad that I remember they're called Sankey diagrams, and thus have managed to avoid this particular indignity.
The_Nybbler
In the game of roller derby, women aren't just the opposing team; they're the ball.
12hr ago
This is just a specific example of the general rule that, absent major disruptions, regulations become stricter and more all-encompassing over time. This tendency is not a good thing.
Major disruptions can push things either way, though usually they accelerate the trend. Revolutions which result in more freedom are rare.
Thoroughlygruntled
12hr ago
The thing is, I like America way more than I like the rest of the world. I don't want to be like them. I value American uniqueness. Am I an obviously biased American exceptionalist? Sure. But nonetheless, this argument is anti-persuasive to me. Especially when it's something so intrinsically tied to American identiy like personal gun ownership.
Holding the rest of the world up as an example only works if the Americans you're talking to like what they see. Who knows what parts of our weird little experiment are load-bearing? I'm not going to start knocking out pieces of the foundation just because a bunch of foreigners are telling me to.
Also, let us not forget, the First Amendment is practically as unique as the Second. Lack of international imitators may be evidence against something, but it's very weak evidence.
quiet_NaN
12hr ago
or in front of a train.
Are you seriously suggesting that society prefer depressed people commit suicide by train?
That feels like the most outlandish thing I have read on the internet all week.
Suicides by train are only topped by intentionally driving on a highway in the wrong direction as far as damage to broader society goes.
Suppose you are a train conductor without psychopathy. You go through your routine job of driving the train, listening to music perhaps when suddenly a person steps on the track 50m ahead of you. You sound the whistle and slam the brakes. You have more than a second to contemplate what is about to happen, but no way to stop it. You hear the impact over the sound of the brakes. After the trains comes to a halt, you grab a first aid kit and run back the person you have just hit. If you are lucky you only need a glance to confirm that they are dead, cut apart by your vehicle. Or you might spent the next ten minutes giving CPR to a corpse until the ambulance arrives, hoping for a miracle which is unlikely to happen.
Intellectually, you know that you did not kill the person, they killed themselves. Still, it was your train. You know that it is not feasible to slow trains down to speeds where they will no longer be used as a method of suicide. If you had reacted a tenth of a second faster, it would not have made any difference. But still, you wonder while you lay sleepless in bed, held awake by the images and sounds which have burned themselves into your memory.
Driving trains is your job, a profession you spent years to learn. It is high responsibility, but also very routine. Before you had hit that person, it was not very stressful, most of the time. But now your brain anticipates that any second, another person might step on the track in front of you, and you would be just as helpless to do anything about it as the first time.
Personally, I would take the life of a physician who assists a suicide of a depression patient after all the process is done a ten times over the life of that train driver.
It didn't take me very long, since my first attempt at using o3 seemed to produce good results. I'm sharing the full conversation below, and it seems to be reasonable to me? You're the expert here, so you should be able to tell if o3 has mucked up.
https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6896665a38088191a35a94848d57c05d
To summarize:
o3 claims that:
The Turtles – “Grim Reaper of Love” (White Whale WW-231)
45Cat lists May 1966 for the U.S. single.
Billboard ran a Spotlight Singles review in the 28 May 1966 issue. Per your rule, with month known and no label weekday documented, assign the Monday of the prior week: Mon 23 May 1966. ARSA has it on the 10 Jun 1966 WLS survey, which fits late-May release then early-June airplay.
For the other release:
Cash Box 5 Jul 1980 shows the LP as the No. 1 Most Added at AOR, which implies servicing that week. Your rule puts street on the usual label day in the week immediately prior. I assign Monday, 14 Jul 1980. Calendar check confirms Monday.
It is worth noting that o3 ran into some operational difficulties. It desperately wanted to try and paste search parameters into a search engine on a site, but the interface I'm using doesn't allow it to. There is, in fact, a product called Agent by OpenAI that can control a mouse and keyboard, and which could plausibly do that.
o3, per the messages, is now asking me to go ahead and look up the song on the site if suggests, and is happy to examine the results.
I also ran something known as Deep Research, also by OpenAI in the background.
https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6896678a10508191b7076b3377144bec
To summarize, this ends up with a release date of Monday, June 6, 1966 for GRoL. For FTH, it claims that "reasonable estimate is June 30, 1980 as the official release date"
I also tried Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude 4.0 Sonnet (the latter is good, but not the best).
Gemini:
Here are the release dates for the requested titles, based on the provided instructions:
The Turtles - Grim Reaper of Love
The release date for The Turtles' single "Grim Reaper of Love" is determined to be Monday, June 13, 1966. The song was released on the White Whale record label in May of 1966. It first entered the Billboard Hot 100 chart on Saturday, June 18, 1966. Following the provided guidelines, in the absence of a specified release day for the label, a Monday release is the default. Therefore, the release date is assigned as the Monday of the week the single entered the chart.
Henry Paul Band - Feel the Heat
The release date for the Henry Paul Band's album Feel the Heat is estimated to be in mid-1980. The album was released in 1980 on Atlantic Records. The single "Longshot" from the album charted on the Billboard Bubbling Under The Hot 100 in 1980. Another major Atlantic release from 1980, AC/DC's Back in Black, was released on a Friday. Without a more specific charting date for "Longshot" or a Billboard review of the album, and without access to a comprehensive Atlantic Records release schedule for that year, a more precise date cannot be determined from the available information.
Claude seems to have struggled the most:
For GRoL
Current Best Estimate: Without access to the specific Billboard chart entry date or copyright records, and knowing only "May 1966" from reputable sources, I would default to Monday (per your rules) in May 1966. Given that it was their fourth single and became a chart failure, it likely entered charts in late May or early June 1966, suggesting a release date around Monday, May 23, 1966 or Monday, May 30, 1966.
For FTH:
The search results confirm it's an Atlantic Records release from 1980, but specific dating information wasn't retrieved in the available searches.
I personally checked one of the PDFs o3 found, and it seemed to support its claim. Let me know if any links are broken in the share chat, or if you'd like me to try something else (such as manually search and share results with o3)
phailyoor
13hr ago
The occupied parts of Ukraine are primarily ethincally Russian and speak Russian. Even if they don't support occupation, they aren't going to be the most hardcore zelensky supporters.
Even so, as far as I can tell gorilla groups are still able to operate in occupied ukraine and mount attacks.
Did someone on the Motte want not just a rematch, but to ban Biden from round the elections?
Also, funnily enough the Romanians don't really dispute the integrity of the votes themselves, they only accused the guy of TikTok voodoo.
Thoroughlygruntled
13hr ago
One set of my grandparents had living wills and the other did not. I can attest that setting up a living will is an incredible gift to your loved ones. It's much easier to make difficult choices when you already have iron-clad proof of someone's wishes back when they were sound of mind.
I think the complaint is more one of prioritizing the letter of those principles in a short-sighted way, that undermines the reasons they were thought to be desirable principles. Like, if your speech rights can be trampled almost as much as if you lived in the old USSR as long as it's not government directly doing the dirty work, even if government played a large role in creating the conditions that made that possible, and libertarians are mostly standing by and letting it happen, that doesn't sound like a very libertarian world to me.
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