domain:philippelemoine.com
faceh
13hr ago
In other words, if your sample is just social media, then you're missing out on all the well-adjusted individuals who are keeping to themselves.
Yes, and indeed, in my social circle, the people who are actually keeping it together the best and who aren't basket cases tend to be the ones with the smallest social media footprint. I remain close friends with these ones.
But, uh, that ALSO tends to be correlated with "Got married relatively early" (before age 25) and "had kids" which is one hell of a major shift requiring one to hopefully become more mature. These folks were hitting their milestones 'on time' and usually had their lives in some kind of order at an earlier age.
I think even accounting for selection effects, I'm detecting a lot of women who hit some kind of crisis in their mid to late 20's and never fully moved on or recovered. In fact, that's often when they stop posting on social media altogether, because life has gone so badly for them they no longer want to publicize it. Hence, that spike in mental illness.
Me, I grew up kind of sheltered, but not bring my parent to an actual job interview sheltered
With Gen Z in general, but with, again, women in particular, there seems to be the double whammy of "taught to be afraid of almost everything" and yet "coddled and never forced to overcome actual challenges" that results in difficulty functioning in the uncertain and messy real world.
Which gets towards my original thesis: Women tend not to mature in their twenties, precisely because they're told on the one hand that the patriarchy is holding them back, many men want to hurt them, control them, that the world is completely slanted against them... AND they're given huge legs up for academics, employment, and general financial assistance.
At what point does your average woman need to gain maturity, if there's always some program or other that will render assistance if she finds herself facing difficulty, or there's always someone willing to take them in and shelter them from the consequences of their decisions?
And the upshot that women are actually less happy than they've been in decades.
The gap between how much assistance women are given, across the board, to succeed in life, and how dissatisfied they apparently are with how their lives are going seems to be at an all-time high. This tends to gel with the anectdotal observations I see, with women in particular having extreme difficulty getting their lives in order despite getting help from all sides, and complaining loudly that its not really their fault.
Which reads to me like they're still stuck in an adolescent mentality.
Do you work in inside sales? Mostly making a lighthearted joke, here. Maybe even healthcare or aviation?
Law. I do a lot of probate work, where someone's parents die and now the children are coming in to close out their final affairs and parcel out their estate.
That's when I sometimes run into the adult woman in her 40's or 50's who starts acting like an entitled brat and trying to boss all the other siblings around and/or acts like everyone else is out to get her/take away what she feels belongs to her, when there's no goddamn reason to do that. Stands out all the more when you've got 2-3 other siblings who are all well-adjusted, and they're saying "yeah we figured this would happen, she's always been like that."
Tends to make the whole process more cumbersome and frustrating (more money for me, though).
Huh. Uploading just the Patterns section of the HexBook webpage and disabling search on web looks better even on Grok3, though that's just a quick glance and I won't be able to test it for a bit.
EDIT: nope, several hallucinated patterns on Grok 3, including a number that break from the naming convention. And Grok4 can't have web search turned off. Bah.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
13hr ago
I can't imagine anyone dating a teenager for the purpose of "simplicity." We can go all the way back to Big Ben Franklin and his advice on why it is better to have an affair with older women than with younger ones, among them:
This just means that neither of you are ephebophiles.
FtttG
13hr ago
I know, it's weird for a self-proclaimed Marxist to criticise others for being unrealistically utopian.
thrownaway24e89172
Death is the inevitable and only true freedom
13hr ago
No, no, and no respectively. And that wasn't how I made the determination, it was how you did by arguing that the air force isn't an army because it uses aircraft. My determination was that because it was originally part of the Army it is therefore just another army separate from the Army for bureaucratic reasons.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
13hr ago
That is pretty impressive. Is it allowed to search the web? It looks like it might be. I think the canonical test I'm proposing would disallow that, but it is a useful step in general.
gattsuru
13hr ago
I don't want to speak on 'intelligence' or genuine reasoning or heuristics and approximations, but when it comes to going outside the bounds of their training data, it's pretty trivially possible to take an LLM and give a problem related to a video game (or a mod for a video game) that was well outside of its knowledge cutoff or training date.
I can't test this right now, it's definitely not an optimal solution (see uploaded file for comparison), and I think it misinterpreted the Evanition operator, but it's a question that I'm pretty sure didn't have an equivalent on the public web anywhere until today. There's something damning in getting a trivial computer science problem either non-optimal or wrong, especially when given the total documentation, but there's also something interesting in getting one like this close at all with such minimum of information.
FtSoA
13hr ago
With that paragraph you cite, I wonder how Freddie would feel if one swapped out "AI" with "Marxism."
DenpaEnthusiast
13hr ago
He probably means cheering. The Japanese message uses the loanword "live", which refers to special events like concerts, not regular live streams. You support concerts by showing up and cheering or clapping, and she's describing her birthday stream as a "horror live", so he's probably intending to watch the whole stream and spam emoji in chat whenever something noteworthy happens. This is pretty common behavior for concerts on YouTube.
FtSoA
13hr ago
There are many degrees of purity. Ultimately, one can always sacrifice more for the cause.
Scott seems to genuinely enjoy his life in terms of material comfort, in addition to his significant charitable giving. And the kidney.
So whatever the threshold is for diminishing returns on his charitable endeavors, he seems to be on the sustainable side.
wrote that one should keep climbing the tower.
I think you actually managed to interpret that exactly backwards. In addition to misapplying it contextually.
He wrote that one should retreat down to the lowest level of the tower one finds necessary to fulfill one's moral obligations. If you don't share those foundational assumptions, then that's fine. But plenty of people in the West ostensibly do.
When he says "if you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region... and I think that people sitting right next door, young people, and many others, will say 'the times of such regimes, such despots, is gone'...", to you it sounds like "don't invade Iraq, and if you're going to do it, hit Iran first (or at least do both)"?
Do you live in a world where politicians say the same things in public as in private, particularly if they have reason to believe a party is already committed to a course of action?
Even if you do, would you consider Netanyahu's remarks and advocacy evidence of instigating?
If there was no difference, why did they not discuss it in public to begin with?
Are you asking why private diplomatic conversations are not immediately publicized? Simple- because private conversations occur, and keep occurring, on the premise of confidentiality.
Hence why the revelations came out as the tail end of the Bush administration via US diplomats writing end-of-term tell-alls, and not from the Israeli side of the relationship.
That's like blaming people for being familiar with front page headline news, but not the correction notice on page 19, stuck between obituaries and classifieds.
I would absolutely blame people for taking strong positions solely off of front page headline news lines at the time. It is a terrible practice, both because emergent news is often wrong and because media also lies with enough regularity that you should regularly be looking for correction notices.
I would also blame people who for ignoring rather relevant and available information sources on their claimed subjects of interest. People with strong interests or claims on how the US government works can be expected to be familiar with notable examples of the genre of government tell-alls of departing / former government staffers, particularly for exceptionally analyzed / researched historical examples like the Bush administration's Iraq War processes.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
14hr ago
This is getting mildly circular, so if you'd like the last word after this comment I am happy to grant you it.
Certainly you are not responsible for the enemy. They're the enemy.
In basically every other adversarial scenario I agree with you. However given the vast power differential and background of this conflict, unfortunately Israel is somewhat responsible. Given they frequently interfere with Gaza/West Banks Sovereignty, borders, etc.
You break it, you bought it. With great power comes great responsibility.
Israel exercises massive power over the Palestinians, and frequently blows their shit up. Thus, they have found themselves in the unfortunate situation of being responsible for their enemies in some capacity, which is a lose/lose.
You cannot have a Marshall plan until the enemy surrenders. They have not and will not. I do not believe Israel has the capacity to take them over and completely remake their culture, nor would the "international community" accept them doing so.
I deeply fear you're correct in this. I genuinely don't see any other viable long term solution though.
Gaza can't stop being a suffering factory unless it develops economically. As long as it continues to be a suffering factory it will generate large amounts of angry young men who hate Israel. Israel can't let Gaza develop unless it's confident a measurable % of Gazan GDP won't become rockets. If Israel can't control Gaza's development, Gaza is doomed to the status quo, and the suffering factory will continue to generate Oct 7 events every ~20 years.
ThenElection
14hr ago
That's all true, but the best argument against Freddie deBoer isn't a bunch of words but just to point out that he suffers from severe mental illness and is desperately trying to shed that reputation he's gained by attacking overly enthusiastic nerds.
ControlsFreak
14hr ago
Good questions! You're the one who tried to make this the way we make the determination, so I'll be interested to hear your answers.
thrownaway24e89172
Death is the inevitable and only true freedom
14hr ago
Does the fact that the US Army maintains its own fleet of ships make it a navy? Are the aircraft that are still directly under the US Army unconstitutional? What about the aircraft that are part of the US Navy?
Dean
Flairless
14hr ago
No: what I’m saying to Freddie is that his analysis, even if true, doesn’t fucking matter. It’s irrelevant. It could well be the case that 100% of the AI maximalists are only breathlessly touting the immediate future of AI on human society because they’re too scared to confront the reality of a world characterised by boredom, drudgery, infirmity and mortality. But even if that was the case, that wouldn’t tell us one single solitary thing about whether this or that AI prediction is likely to come to pass or not. The only way to answer that question to our satisfaction is to soberly and dispassionately look at the state of the evidence, the facts on the ground, resisting the temptation to get caught up in hype or reflexive dismissal. If it ultimately turns out that LLMs are a blind alley, there will be plenty of time to gloat about the psychological factors that caused the AI maximalists to believe otherwise. Doing so before it has been conclusively shown that LLMs are a blind alley is a waste of words.
Disagree. If it was true, it would matter quite a bit.
If deBoer was right- both in his conclusion and his reasoning as to why- it would be really relevant. It would mean, among other things, that deBoer had an actually, insightful, accurate, and predictive model of notoriously difficult fields of technology and human pyschology that can all be used to know results in advance. It would not only bolster his credibility on many other topics, but could help refine public policies, discourse, and even technological evolution itself, because here would be a man who can see what is coming before it happens. It would be a demonstration of the quality of his conceptions vis-a-vis would-be public luminaries like, well, Scott. DeBoer would demonstratably be a man who not only knows Scott's interests better than Scott, but also knows Scott better than Scott to a degree that he can accurately predict where Scott will be wrong, and why, before Scott does.
But it's only useful / relevant if it's a prediction made in advance of it being realized. There's no particular value in accurate psychoanalysis with the benefit of hindsight, except when/if it helps with the next future prediction. There's no particular economic/technological understanding why something failed after it already did so, except to help with a future effort. It'd be like be proud about how you totally knew a war would be won or lost after it was resolved- the value of knowing which way the war will result is to affect it before it is a matter of history, so that you can change the future.
But this, in turn, requires being right. deBoer isn't useless here because being right is irrelevant- deBoer is useless because he isn't, and he spends far too many words being useless.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
14hr ago
In retrospect, it would be shocking if AI therapy didn't take off. Probably the biggest barrier to getting therapy is cost and availability. Chatbots are available 24/7, essentially free, and will never judge you. The rate of mental illness is rising particularly among young people so the demand is there. But it's not just that, the idea of therapy is ingrained into today's culture. There's a sense that everyone should get therapy, who among us is truly mentally healthy, etc. I could easily see it becoming as ubiquitous as online dating is today.
I think the huge issue here is that without an underlying pathology, mental health treatments might do more harm than good. The therapeutic process is designed to help people get over a specific set of problems, say pathological depression (by which I mean depression that doesn’t come from a negative life experience or generally poor living conditions). If you take someone who’s depressed because they’re legitimately grieving the loss of a loved one, or because the just got a cancer diagnosis or something similar that makes feeling sad and empty the normal human response to such a thing. And if you don’t allow yourself to just be sad when life sucks, you don’t grieve what was, or the dreams you have or whatever, I think that’s a bit dangerous long term. It’s likely good for you to be sad when granny dies, it means you cared deeply about a human being — one you carried a close, loving relationship with — and you need to work through that.
This seems like cope.
I am not surprised it seems like cope to an account created specifically to defend this OP's premise.
Welcome to the Motte, by the way. I look forward to your unique and diverse posting interests going forward.
No, it is about Israel because nobody is getting deported over DEI. Top federal officials aren't devoting their full attention to girls yelling at guys wearing USA shirts. Not a single person has had the book thrown at them for "anti-white racism".
I believe what the Trump Admin does, not what it says.
'Believing what the Trump Admin does' would entail recognizing that no one is getting deported over FEMA funds at all, which is what this is about, whereas this exact event is proposing non-joo-related basis to throw the book at people.
These may not be the doings that the OP and/or you wish to acknowledge, but that is the sort of thing the OP is typically inclined to obfuscate.
Of course, Trump also is pitting the interests of his Jewish donors against the interests of "America First" voters who didn't sign up for endless glazing of a foreign country. The Democrats didn't need any help to provoke a civil war, Joe Biden did that all on its own. By wading in he's provoking an avoidable Republican civil war instead.
There is no Republican civil war about using Democratic Party shibboleths as a potential legal action trigger against members of the Democratic Party.
There has been plenty of wishful thinking by would-be leaders of the right that [their special interest] would be the straw that broke the Trump coalition's back since theirs was the Truly Popular position, but such as it has long been and so it will be going forward.
On the contrary, it looks like Trump is himself being baited into an untenable position by his donors/blackmailers. Unconditional support for Israel to the point of punishing American citizens is taking the 20 on a 80-20 issue.
'Trump is being bribed / blackmailed into unamerican activities to the disgust all true Americans' has been a political attack line longer than his time in office. It remains as credible as ever.
ControlsFreak
14hr ago
Do ports and shipyards make it so that the US Navy is a land Force, since it probably doesn't matter whether some of its units are temporarily waterborne, in the same way that a US Army soldier swimming across a river wouldn't make it a naval Force?
thrownaway24e89172
Death is the inevitable and only true freedom
14hr ago
It is obviously a land force as demonstrated by its fixed assets (bases, airfields, etc). That some of its units are temporarily airborne doesn't change this fact anymore than the fact that a person who is running temporarily loses all contact with the ground would make running soldiers no longer part of an army.
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
15hr ago
You can actually get a good explanation by asking an LLM (preferably a good one) Something like Deep Research will at least give you the hooks to get into. I'm not saying this just because I'm lazy, but because I expect you to get a good answer out of it.
self_made_human
Grippy socks, grippy box
15hr ago
rather than affirming whatever feelings you might have without challenge
I've heard plenty of horror stories about therapists who do, in fact, behave in this way. I have no strong opinions on whether they're representative, but they're certainly not rare.
あい らいく ゆー。
かむ おーばー とぅ まい はうす えんど ふぁっく まい しすたー！
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