DBDr
1yr ago
Since it seems that the situation has settled into another quite period while the sides sort their shit out, any other other DISGUSTING GEAR FUCKERS want to make predictions about the Special Operation?
Last time, I did better than most but still got blown the fuck out 'cause of shocking aggression from Ukraine and surprising incompetence from Russia, but Russia is running out of easy room to be incompetent and Ukraine is reaching the limits of easy aggression.
That said: Newest aid packages to Ukraine add capabilities that they did not have before, eg, a tank with a computer in it that was designed after the end of the cold war that doesn't explode if you sneeze on it, and Russia just dismissed the dude that organized the super clean double retreat across the dnipro (which was shocking; I wasn't sure it would happen but if it happened I thought it would be some combination of snafu and bloodbath).
None of this might matter given the fact that Russians are settles/behind a river.
Even with all this, it seems like the war will not end for the foreseeable future baring Putin dying of cancer and maybe not even then.
95% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
GIVEN PUTIN DIES in the next 5 months: 80% the war continues into 2024 in some regard
85% the war is HOT into 2024
90% no major territorial changes in the next 1 months
70% no major territorial changes in the next 3 months
40% no major territorial changes in the next 11 months
99% no nuclear action taken by Russia over the next 11 months.
60% Ukraine gets ATACMS in the next 3 months.
DBDr
1yr ago
If you take the conservatives one is likely to see without searching them out[Media personalities (Tucker), influencers (shapiro), controversial politicians (trump/boeburt)] at their word: Absolutely yes.
Eg, Global warming isn't real, non-hetero's are all groomers, mexicans caravans 10000 strong are coming over the border to rape your dog, etc.
DBDr
1yr ago
Lord of the Rings is actually really good; IF you don't mind them playing fast and loose with cannon dates and some GoT style bloody titillation that doesn't quite fit with the movies or books (it's not too gratuitous, but it is there. It's the only place you could really feel the heavy hand of the executive).
I wasn't sure on my feelings while I was watching it vis. some pacing issues and where the camera was looking, but the last couple episodes made me really appreciate the whole thing.
DBDr
4mo ago
It sounds like you just hate the South and hate Southerners. Your contempt is clouding your judgment and betrays your calls to vengeance for what they are. I do, actually. I find southern identity and culture alternately shallow or ridiculous or gross, but my complaints are separate from that. I would grit my teeth and bear the culture I dislike if the rest of my complaining was addressed, even if it meant my leftist politics were defeated more often.
The north had it's own set of piccadillies and fucked up bullshit, but the south was uniquely bad at elite generation outside of specific, narrow fields (cavalry and cavalry officers). It's why they lost the war even when the majority of the professional military class defected; why the north had time to spin up an entire new military and MIC after dumpstering two or three armies one after another.
It's not even that the south was poor, the south had tons of money at the begging of the war. It's that the south was committed to a form of social organization that had become outdated decades before they decided to have a war over it.
Stop, your tyranny is showing. No, it really isn't. The war started at all because the south decided it had the right and privilege to dictate the laws of the rest of the union; and there was no allowance to succession in the constitution. If the south had the juice to win the war they would have established that right, but they didn't and it wasn't. Your revisionist take ignores the massive concession made to the south up to the very line of "we get everything we want, and you get nothing you want"; and just kinda avoids thinking of the moral crime of chattel slavery. If you want to defend the peculiar institution be my guest but don't just pretend it wasn't there.
Fourth and finally, the biggest mistake of US statecraft was stopping at Berlin in 1945, instead of pushing to Moscow Yes, the US would defeat the 12 million man soviet army, the most powerful in the world at the time, in a land war in russia. Be serious, my dude. We would have gotten BTFO because the idea was clearly stupid; which is why nobody of substance gave it any thought at the time. The winning move was to clearly wait, build up a stock of a-bombs, and dictate terms from a place strength. The fact the Soviets got them from us torpedoed this, but the alternative plan was even more impossible.
DBDr
4mo ago
I'd say the unique factor in the south wasn't awfulness per se; but a planter aristocratic class who's entire position depended on directly chattel slavery right in their back yards.
In the rest of the western world, the owning class was insulated from whatever they owned by a couple layers of middle class professional technocrats. "Doing business? How dreadfully plebeian my dear, now pass the port and deal me another hand".
DBDr
9mo ago
I'm not reading all that. Good for you though, or I'm sorry that it happened.
For real though, you need to capitalize and do line breaks, 'specially for dense text like this. It is barley legible.
I will say that even the idea of a descriptive orientation is poisoned before birth. As Abaddon said: “Lord, bestow upon us the armor that will resist ending. The days grow short and the nights cold. The quavering strands of our life grow thin and worn in these final days since we have come to know death. I bid thee Lord make us to know a companion of this feeling.”
And YISUN smiled in the fifth way and said in reply:
“As the stone is in the fruit, your death is already in you. There is no armor that will resist the contents of your own heart. You were cut down the moment you existed.”
DBDr
1yr ago
What does woke mean to you?
If it means that the the current hegemonic values are indeed hegemonic, it's gonna be that way for a while yet probably.
The majority opinion on all 'woke' subjects is reflected by institutions that have a broad base, or who require support from the cultural or financial elite. This is how it has to be in a market system.
IT's why trans issues are so contentious; they haven't been fully integrated into the hegemon yet.
DBDr
1yr ago
I fantasize about taking people I don't like outside and beating the shit out of them; and yet somehow it has never happened!
Almost as if there is a difference between imagination and reality.
DBDr
1yr ago
Registering a bit of funny before finishing the article "Got rich writing mediocre books"; said the author of a blog that after much striving has reached sub-par.
I assume that dishing out requires taking, re. sneering.
In order but unsourced:
Israel has dropped white phosphorus on Gaza. Yes, but it's not unique. White phosphorous is too useful to not drop; everybody be dropping white phosphorous. If it lands on you you will die one of the worst deaths imaginable; but armies generally don't directly try to land it on people.
No babies were killed. The video evidence was faked or actually of things done to Palestinians. Maybe. Most of the claims of Jr. getting Wopper'ed. have been retracted; but there is no way to know for sure and such things have happened before on both sides of this conflict.
Israel is bombing Northern Gaza indiscriminately. Yes. Any 2000lb dumb bomb on a dense city is definitionally indiscriminate; and they are going fucking crazy on the city with dumb munitions.
Hamas is has not been proven to be operating out of any hospitals. Yes and no: hamas has operated in those areas before and there is infrastructure there; but every hospital shut down or destroyed by Isreal durring this round of conflict has had +/- 0 Hammas command centers under it, and only PDWs stored in the actual hospital. That doesn't mean they weren't there before, however.
Israel has cut off all food, water, electricity aide (I know there was some of this, but has it continued and are they completely blockading it?) Kinda. They are doing as much as they can, but it's more like "throttled as much as is practical" than "Cut off totally". This might have changed since I last looked at it, though.
Israel killed the Palestinians when they tried to leave Northern Gaza. She denied there was any evidence Hamas actually did this. True. Israel has bombed sufferal safe evacuation corridors and the areas the told people to evacuate too, fairly consistently over several missions. It is basically impossible this isn't at least willfully negligent on their part.
Israel bombed Palestinians as they left to go to Egypt. True; but misleading. They weren't at the border crossing. That said, they have had at least one fragment from a tank shell hit someone standing in egypt, so they are being pretty frisky there.
The UK and the US were allied with Israel from the beginning and supported the establishment of the country. True (kinda). Part of the founding of Israel is the balfour declaration; and it was less allied at the beginning than standing aside and letting it happen. They were firmly US allies REALLY quickly after ww2 though; as a capitalist white-enough outpost in the middle east.
Thousands of Palestinian civilians have been killed by Israelis during the occupation. Ten(s of?) thousand(s?) at least; many of them by small arms at close range; cluding at least a couple hundred on the west bank where hammas doesn't exist. This is not in doubt, and is not surprising to anyone. If you want to ruin your day and your brain you can go look at the pictures, but I don't recommend it.
DBDr
6mo ago
They do have the right to vote: They can rock up to their polling place, place their vote, and then loose because their policies are unpopular (or win on merits, but given the polls on that particular issue it sure seems unlikely).
The right to compete doesn't mean the right to win.
DBDr
9mo ago
Does anyone have any recently updated not wildly partisan adversarial stuff re. HBD/IQ inheritance/IQ measurement/ The whole salami?
This is kinda specific, I'm after a single place where there are people disagreeing with each others sources and arguments directly; preferably experts or at least people who can reference experts.
DBDr
9mo ago
After recently becoming rich (read: middle class in socal), I've started doing more rich people things; eg I'm a member of a couple museums I like near me, the gemological institute, and I bought a membership and season tickets to my local orchestra. Hence, I've been going to more soirees, concerts, events and such and have developed some feelings.
Re: Some types of 'cultural' activities are just better than other types. I know, I know, taste and what have you. That said: if the only thing that you do outside of work and buy shit is watch sports, I am tired as fuck of you. Even if I disagree with 80% of the people here on 90% of reality, at least your fucking here! That already give you a bunch of points or interest.
Everyone I meet at these highfalutin type situations likes dumb garbage prole entertainment. They watch sitcoms or NFL or MMA or whatever. The problem seems to be when that is the ONLY thing you consume.
Secondly: Man I love having a social circle that includes some cultural elites. A lot of dudes I used to be around in trade actually had more money than these people, but they spent it on eg a bigger truck or cloths or shitty furniture that is still expensive for some reason or vacations to Cabo or Acapulco. I know that finding these things to be fucking lame as fuck and boring makes me an elitist piece of shit but fuck man. Acapulco? You're gonna spend 10k for 7 days in a shitty hotel?
Basically, I am devastated but unsurprised to find that the better half actually do live better.
Also I got the subject of my most recent ban in the mail and it is fucking beautiful; a heavily used Stanley no. 8 type 9 jointer from 1900ish in nearly mint condition somehow; many carful owners. It is now my precious son and lives on a special shelf so I can admire it from my computer.
DBDr
10mo ago
No. It used to be that you got punished for violating norms by getting banned from the club; having to cry alone in your mansion instead of drinking cocktails at the gala style thing.
That boat sailed with Grover and Gingrich and finally Mcconnell proving positively that norms aren't real and rules that require a majority vote are just loyalty checks.
Just like conservatives are picking up some lib tactics in the culture war; libs are finally waking up to the fact that political compromise is fucking stupid and you can just lie to your opponents and it will never actually come back to you.
DBDr
11mo ago
'cause he was getting strangled, which is impossible to do safely. Even a short strangulation routinely fucks your neck up such that you die without medical care.
So, either he was choking him in such a way he would certainly die, or he was strangling the dude (which is also bad, and also ends in death if you hold it for 10+ mins.)
DBDr
1yr ago
As a woke leftist myself:
You can't, because you are wrong.
But for real: You still can't, because this is a scissor-ish style of statement that has too much cultural impetus behind it for any counterargument that can be delivered in anything less than 1500 pages to be convincing.
Eg, you can be as rational and as reasonable as you like, but all it takes is ONE (1) clip from fox news about current culture war issue, or someone reminding them about whichever black guy most recently got executed by the cops on the street, or just remembering that a defacto legal racial caste system existed in the US until 1964, and they will instantly revert to priors: that is, you are either a bigot, or politically motivated to believe things that are demonstrably untrue.
Don't give up, live your truth and etcetera, but understand that for every "affirmative action is a prejudicial concept that infantilizes racial minorities unjustly and unfairly", there is a "there are millions of people alive today that were forbidden from owning high value property because they were not white".
DBDr
1yr ago
Thin a fuck and overwrought as hell, doesn't change my opinion.
Still think that it's 50/50 shitty russian engineering vs. some eastern member in the NATO constellation doing a little undersea trolling, with Poland in the lead.
DBDr
1yr ago
Call me back when they try to hang the lieutenant governor and take a shit in the speakers office.
DBDr
1yr ago
Our prevailing political system permits a left-wing Will to Power while only allowing a moderate right-wing opposition. It simultaneously enforces a taboo, and in some cases in Europe an outright legal ban, on avant garde or post-liberal, right-wing political thinking.
I (a leftist) think this is a fundamental mistake:
A will to power is not permitted, it justifies itself.
The current ascendancy of liberalism itself wasn't permitted, it forced itself into existence from the ballot box and the bullet box. Likewise the progress into the future, however slow, will continue to create itself.
What does the right have to compare to the creative urge? 7000 years of people clinging to old, decaying systems being paved over by progress. Conservatives can win temporary victories, they can freeze progress or roll it back for a short time or even a long time; but conservatives can never win.
The future will always come.
This is the attitude of your progressive; which has been enfeebled recently by a 200 year long string of victories. But if those victories end, the progressive spirit won't end with them. If 1000 years of serfdom and empire couldn't do it, nothing can.
DBDr
1yr ago
To be Fair: this has been happening for 4+ years in lib spaces; once everyone who takes this shit seriously realized trump was a retard.
Lotta "Oh shit we just dodged a bullet; imagine if it was pence/desantis/whoever in charge with all three branches instead of this manchild".
DBDr
1yr ago
You know that's not true.
Their plan is to spend about the same amount because most of the budget is sacred cows, while also increasing effective monetary supply by cutting taxes; because that's been their plan for 40 fucking years.
DBDr
6mo ago
Because there can only be one definitive undefinitive source and despite the bubble effect of sites like this one the Liberal opinion on (most) factual questions is the popular opinion.
Wikipidea is undefinitive because it is a democracy; you will never get conservative wins in an open platform because there are less conservatives than liberals.
DBDr
8mo ago
Eh. Pre covid MY life was at least a decade in to getting "ruined" just by society functioning as intended.
I can sympathize with people that got fucked by covid, and I would happily live in a society where people didn't get fucked by covid; but that's not what we got. The majority of everyone is getting fucked every day, and I've finally managed to ascend high enough in the crab bucket that I get to stand on the little people while my bosses stand on me.
It's shit, but it is what it is, right?
It's always been this way about something.
Before, it's Marilyn monroe being all scandalous 'an shit, the Dixie Chicks failing to be sufficiently patriotic (sic. blood thirsty), taking the lords name in vain, whatever the fuck.
The cost of and benifit of fame is everyone watching you, so they can all shout at the some time when you violate the norm of the day.
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