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User ID: 1865
You're an Australian, correct?
Trump is the current favorite to win the next election @ $2.40 (Roughly 41.6%). You can bet 1000's of AUD currently on this not to happen at 58.4% (with a minor commission, taking you to about 56% implied) on the Betfair exchange. Tax-free winnings as an Australian hobbyist, too. As you think Trump is 85% to get jailed here, surely that makes your number of him winning the election a lot lower than 41.6%. Can even bet against him to win the Republican nomination at 81.3% with similar liquidity. No counterparty risk there.
"Me Too" may have had its overreaches, but it's bad when women are sexually coerced in the workplace. It's bad when false accusations destroy an innocent man's life, but it's also bad when a woman is genuinely taken advantage of. The balance of type 1 errors to type 2 errors has shifted - and while I'm not sure it's worse to be a female victim than a falsely accused man, I would expect that the deterred male misconduct is much greater in frequency than the corresponding rise in female misconduct. Similarly, many jurisdictions have consciously made it easier to convict men for rape - and again, while this is a double edged sword, the fact that more bad guys are getting punished and others are being deterred from doing bad things is good. Additionally, the type of conduct that is not rape but may result in an increased likelihood of being accused of rape is conduct that I think is bad - so even if it sometimes gets punished unfairly harshly, I don't mind men being disincentivized from e.g. getting women drunk to make them more pliable.
I think there's been a lot of pro-social behavior that's been thrown out with the bathwater, though. The proportion of people meeting their partners at work has dived off a cliff, and like that's generally good sort of assortative mating that produces solid outcomes for everybody. I don't think you can just purely say it's 'falsely accused men versus molested women' when there's a ton of social behavior that has been modified.
Republicans in PA in 2019 opened up mail in ballot access because it would help turn out in rural voters who had to travel long distances to a polling place. They did this in 2019, before Covid.
Could see it being kind of an odd catch 22 where Republicans are more likely to get legitimate mail-in votes where people are either too old, too remote or overseas in order to vote whilst the mail-in voting demographic amongst the Democrats would be more about people who simply can't be bothered participating in the typical voting process.
UST & USDT easy to get mixed up. Terra, potentially?
Canada is also the leading in the immigrants who leave as well. Over 20% of immigrants have left in the last twenty five years.
Combination of the USA being next door, the weather and some other stuff?
Fairly big difference between 'maybe relax the restrictions on building new dwellings a bit' and 'to reduce the housing shortage, we're moving three more people in with every domicile since 'cause'. I'd say your vibe is more against the latter.
I've heard the theory that due to it generally being more comfortable to be 'out' as a homosexual in more educated/affluent surrounds and in more successful demographics that there's an associated upward skew on homosexual average income, education and the rest.
If 90% of affluent gays feel comfortable coming out, whilst only 20% of lower-class gays feel comfortable, that can explain a ton of overperformance.
AFAIK Canberra's more left wing, such as being the only region to actually Vote Yes at the last referendum... but I guess it's more of a Labor-voting Left Wing than a radical one.
They way I see it - if you were a jewish person with SJW opinions you don't have a right to complain about the lack of lube on the dildo of consequences that the people you supported and allied yourself with are inserting right now in your asshole.
This is essentially how I feel.
I'd rather have Israel than an Arabic region, since I think the latter wouldn't really be especially productive, whilst the former's been able to provide a bastion of a culture that's somewhat similar to mine and be economically productive. I also feel that the ADL has provided a lot of the blueprint for the modern anticolonial woke movement, and that it is very funny that suddenly the Zionist diaspora is getting hoisted by the petard that they've been condemning the rest of the West for.
Yeah. My interpretation was that he was diving/trying for some moderate rough play and landed the proverbial critical hit.
I don't think there was any intent of it ending as it did, but he also clearly made an abnormal movement for the sport
Yeah but as you go down the IQ scale the comparative advantages for businesses become a bit more complicated than sticking Kanban boards in and doing a weekly standup.
The widow to a failure is more sympathetic than the failure themselves whilst they're still alive?
I feel a lot of the male-male homophobia is downstream of the female revulsion towards male affection in the modern era, plus a phemonenon that I find hard to nail down but is kinda like 'since only homosexuals show open affection towards eachother, doing so must mean hidden eroticism not just affection'.
Having traveled to cultures where homosexuality is just taboo to the point that the average person essentially forgets that it exists, it's amazing how much more affectionate and physical contact between men takes place.
The photo of Khabib Nurmagomedov bathing with a bunch of other men for instance
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESoX8IPWoAAvVgc.jpg
Culturally since homosexuality is seen as being so outside the overton window, there's no concern of appearing to be homosexual.
I suppose there's an argument for that, but I just feel like 'life utility points' aren't super tied to money in the West right now beyond a certain minimum spec. You don't want to be broke-broke, I agree, but the qualitative difference between making $100k and making $300k is pretty low as somebody who's bounced around the spectrum. My net worth/earnings took a big hit a few years ago in '2021 fantasy bull market dollars' terms which probably is gonna take me another couple years to get back to, but my day-to-day existence is essentially the same. Admittedly I'm probably more frugal than a lot of guys like that, but having experienced a lot of 'rich person stuff' it's the difference between a 7.5/10 day and a 8/10 day.
How much of that is cultural, though?
Girl-on-girl is a bit of raunchy fun. Guy-on-guy experimentation is likely to ick every woman who ever hears of your involvement, without even getting into man-on-man homophobia.
Yeah. Failure case in most Western democracies right now is not that earthshatteringly bad. It's definitely tight, but it's not like he'd be forced to go homeless 48 hours after declaring bankruptcy. Especially when he's got the contact network he ostensibly seems to have had, surely there'd be a 6-figure sinecure of some sort available somewhere as a consultant or middle manager that'd allow him to be atleast medium competitive.
The most coherent decision to alleviate this would be more along the lines of 'maybe 95% of lifetime health expenditure shouldn't be poured into the last 3-4 years of low QALY living' as opposed to reworking the healthcare system. It's simply unsustainable to have the majority of people make it to their 80's after a long life of likely not even being an especially net contributor to the public purse.
There's a difference between adapting an ancient story to better suit your immediate geographic & cultural mores and constructing a beat-for-beat remake of something that's like 30 years old where the only difference is that the cast is made up of the right suite of POC.
It's also a matter of tone. A lot of modern race-swapping feels more deliberately combative to the source material.
If memory serves that's because there was no data the mask mandates was based on
In fact the existing data/studies indicated that masks were ineffective and a placebo at best
Personally feel like Petgrave was kind of trying to indulge in some low-medium grade rough play which happened to land the proverbial 'critical hit'. Murder's too strong but negligent manslaughter is definitely on the table.
I feel like it's also a matter of accessories and context as well, for people of a kind of light-medium brown that could plausibly be from anywhere between Mediterreanean, most of the Arab world, most of Latin America etc.
If I see somebody who's about the right shade of brown dressed in an outfit that suggests an ethnicity, I'm generally not gonna fetch out the calipers and take them at face value
I'm fairly sure black women generally score the lowest for interracial appeal in dating app data, which might be part of it.
Then again there's generally strong correlations between being a black woman and a bunch of things the dating market isn't a fan of such as Obesity, dependents etc. which might mean that the antipathy towards Black Women is overstated on account of the correlated factors.
Like I found in my personal dating I tended to end up pursuing more Asian girls than anything else, but that was more due to a preference for 'My partner ideally has graduated university, isn't overweight, hasn't got somebody else's kids etcetera' than necessary a strong preference in isolation.
Universal Soldier works, but even then it's a bit stilted in terms of pure musicality
He's pretty clearly being sarcastic about how the majority of Wikipedia spend seems to be on bloat and random political efforts.
Wikipedia could run the entity with about 10% of it's incoming cash and everything else is a bureaucracy and progressive fundraisers. Whilst they shake down users for donations like their $10 is going to be the difference between a 404 error and Wikipedia next year.
Northern Ireland was closer to a settler-colony and has similar issues.
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