NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Some headlines below for your consideration, focused on risks. The high level overview is that Trump's Middle East trip is going well, India/Pakistan situation not that worrying. I was also surprised that the PKK announced its disbandment. Generally things seem less tense than a couple weeks ago.
Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border
Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity
Kurdish militant group, PKK decides to disband and end armed struggle with Turkiye
On May 14, a formation of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters around my Diaoyu Islands.
PM Modi outlines harder stance against terrorists. Says that any terrorist attack on India will be met with a strong and decisive response; that India will not tolerate "nuclear blackmail" and will respond with precise strikes; that there will be no distinction between terrorist groups and their sponsors
Türkiye Says It Is Closely Monitoring PKK Disbandment to Secure Peace
Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire after IAF bombed nuclear assets in Kairana Hills? Did it cause leak of radiation?
Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions'
Amazon will work with AI company recently launched by Saudi Arabia’s ruler to invest upwards of $5 billion-plus in building an AI Zone in Saudi Arabia
Genocide in Syria: Jihadists Massacre Druze, Christians, 'Infidels'
Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia
Trump, Saudis secure $600B investment deal to include billions in US defense weapons
Similar to a 600B number earlier this year
Taiwan military conducts its first live-fire test of American-made HIMARS, military expert says: its survivability is very fragile.
Nigerian state, Borno, with 6M people, bans the sale of petrol in order to reduce the mobility of jihadist militants
EU finalizes 17th sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet and defense sector
German police arrest three men over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot
Inside Putin's New Kill Squad: Russian Dictator Launches 'KGB 2.0'
Amid beating from India, Baloch rebels also claim 71 attacks on Pakistani forces
No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims
Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe
Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed
NunoSempere
6mo ago
I applied for an org that was 50% the same objective 50% emergency response. I am very unlikely to join FRI so they do a good job; if I quit my current thing I'm more likely to go into the private sector
NunoSempere
6mo ago
The stated reason was that at the time we also had an emergency response team, which reportedly was less of a fit for forecasting specifically. The actual reason is complicated/less discernable, but I get the feeling that they took a look at me and said: nah.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
I am very frustrated at this $10M grant. I think I could do the part about "foundational research into the methodological challenges of existential risk forecasts, as well as applied research on estimating such risks, and on the identification of early warning signals" well, if not better. In fact I have been obsessing about that cluster of problems for the last several years. Yet I was rejected by the organization making the grant a few months ago. Feels bad man.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
My roundup for last week:
- India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.
- The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.
- The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.
- Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.
- The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
6mo ago
ranked quite highly on PopePredictor
Do you have a link?
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Prediction markets didn't see itn coming, which I thought was interesting.
NunoSempere
7mo ago
Yes but it needs taste. Go is nicer than C, python is nicer than perl and bash and php. Command line apps are blazingly fast.
Slack is built upon a tower of abstractions and it does have more functionality than IRC. It could have been better but the tower of abstractions means it was created faster.
NunoSempere
7mo ago
Cleaned up version of this comment into a brief here: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025
NunoSempere
7mo ago
Yes, which is why it's interesting that he has backpedaled on this.
NunoSempere
7mo ago
I'm also curious about to what extent he changed his mind vs got pressured to make noises he doesn't agree with.
NunoSempere
7mo ago
News on my mind this week:
Trump/China trade war intensifying. S&P 500 breaks. I was regretting not buying the dip. Trump/China trade war intensifying
Trump threatens Iran if talks don't go well
Iran and the US having talks on the nuclear file through Omani mediation
Satellite imagery shows US aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran
90% of Rafah's residential neighborhoods destroyed by Israel, Gaza authorities say
Trump to not prosecute crypto fraud
Treasury imposes sanctions on enablers of Iran's nuclear program
New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Nuclear Program (another gov source)
Israel would be 'leader' of strike if Iran doesn't give up nuclear weapons program, Trump warns
Israel's Ambassador Expelled from African Union Conference Amid Tensions Over Gaza Conflict
Israel's Smotrich says 'not even a grain of wheat' will enter Gaza
B-2 Stealth Bombers Deployed To Diego Garcia Have Been Striking Targets In Yemen
Houthis attack US and Israeli forces, mostly ineffectively
INDOPACOM boss warns PLA is conducting 'dress rehearsals' for Taiwan invasion
Taiwan fears that PLA drills may escalate into real attack 'with no time to respond'
US to revoke all South Sudan visas over failure to accept repatriation of citizens: Rubio
Zelensky says at least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in Ukraine
Bangladeshi court sends 70 pro-Awami League lawyers to jail, on seemingly trumped up charges
Ethiopia on the brink of war?
Is War Between Ethiopia, Eritrea Brewing In Tigray?
US producing new nuclear weapons faster
Squirrels might be natural reservoirs for mpox
RFK Jr. endorses measles, mumps and rubella vaccine
Petraeus: A US strike on Iran wouldn’t stop at nuclear sites
US Space Command wants orbital weapons for 'space superiority'
Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia , might try to secede again and join Serbia.
Islamic terrorists kill over 300 villagers in Burkina Faso
NunoSempere
7mo ago
Mmmh, thanks.
the voluntary come from very poor regions and receive significant sign on bonuses.
Is this still true? My sense is also that they were also mislead/pressured.
NunoSempere
7mo ago
I don't know, but these are good questions.
NunoSempere
7mo ago
The big item this week seems like the Trump tariffs. Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to the start of ww2 and the deaths of tens of millions of people, says a friend. An argument in favor is that the numbers aren't meant to be taken literally not seriously, and are just there to force a negotiation. The initial formula seems pretty straightforwardly wrong (it disincentivizes e.g., Vietnam sweatshops from producing clothes for cheap). I liked this piece from Varoufakis defending what he views as Trump's plan. I'd particularly welcome steelmen and defenses of the tariffs.
Besides that, a rough list of items I've caught, particularly focused on things that could pose large risks (if you want a cleaner version of this you can check here in a couple of days):
Cholera epidemic claims over 300 lives, spread to 16 out of the country's 21 provinces.
Chinese scientific research/spy ship spotted off coast of South Australia
China Eastern Theater Command Releases Military Operation Themed Poster "Closing In"
Mali, Burkina, Niger foreign ministers due in Moscow for talks
At least 322 children killed and 609 injured in Gaza following breakdown of ceasefire: UNICEF
Hamas agrees to release five hostages in renewed ceasefire, Israel counters
Iran threatens to develop nuke weapons should U.S. attack
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader warned on Monday that if the United States or Israel were to attack Iran under the pretext of nuclear concerns, the country would be compelled to pursue the development of nuclear weapons, according to the official news agency IRNA.
Israel issues wide-ranging evacuation order for southern Gaza
UN Agency Closes Its Remaining Gaza Bakeries Amid Israel's Ongoing Aid Blockade
ARMED Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner has directed the Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) to prepare for the possible invasion of Taiwan.
China 'closes in' on Taiwan with large-scale military drills
China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan
Chinese forces encircle Taiwan on three sides during drills - World
Military chief says Philippines 'inevitably' involved if Taiwan invaded
Google deepmind AI strategy
China large-scale drills
Some incredibly dumb tariff maths
Another Chinese military poster
https://imgmil.gmw.cn/attachement/png/site2/20250402/f44d305ea6dd2956e78044.png
Military drills response to separatism, mainland official says
All bakeries supported by World Food Program in Gaza closed due to lack of flour, fuel
Israel hails Hungary's decision to exit International Criminal Court
Israel's Netanyahu says army to establish new security corridor in Gaza
The Eastern Theater Command has organized forces from the army, navy, air force, and other branches to conduct joint exercises around Taiwan Island.
US opposes China's military exercises around Taiwan, warns against 'destabilizing behavior'. Back in the day they would have done a freedom of navigation exercise
Sudan's RSF confirms retreat from Khartoum, eyes 'stronger' return
A NYT investigations reveals that at times, the US was running the back office of the war for Ukraine. It also tells a story of envious Ukranian generals leading to incompetent counteroffensives. (summary here)
a New York Times investigation |reveals| that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.
Putin plans to conscript 160,000 more Russians for war with Ukraine
British Columbia man, Mohammad Jawaid Aziz, accused in conspiracy to obtain US technology for Pakistan's nuclear weapon's program
Construction of private bunkers in Spain rises 200% as fears of war in Europe grow
Germany stationing troops in Lithuania, and considering conscription
Two-year-old girl from Andhra Pradesh, India, has died after contracting H5N1 bird flu
Mpox activity in Africa on pace to pass 2024 total. Inconsistent with reporting from the WHO last week about cases waning
I generally don't like to report on announcements, but: OpenAI plans to release open-weight language model in coming months
NunoSempere
8mo ago
TV: The Incredibles, Speed Racer
NunoSempere
9mo ago
What can I do if I want to bring back these things?
Move to a poor country like Paraguay with a significantly smaller state yet a noticeable German minority. Sadly I think the cost for you would be too high.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Thanks man, this is good context that I didn't understand.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
India imposes direct presidential rule (rather than local elected government) in rebellious state
Drone strike on Chernobyl
IRGC holds large-scale military exercises in southwest Iran
Last week I was worried about Congo affecting more african nations. Since then:
- Uganda deploys troops in Congo to help the local government against local militias
- 4K deaths, 4K wounded in Congo civil war since Jan 21st 2025
- DR Congo seeks Chad’s support to combat M23 rebels: Report
- Bukavu, the second largest city in DR Congo falls to M23
- US imposed sanctions to M23 members
And in Sudan:
- Rapid Support Forces in Sudan kill 200 civilians in three days, are considering establishing their own government.
- Sudan’s army-backed government recalled its ambassador from Kenya in protest over Kenya reportedly supporting Sudan's Rapid Support Forces.
Transmissible brain disease is spreading through Canadian deer.
US seizes weapons shipment to Yemen's Houthis from Iran; Iran denies provenance.
NK building capability for missiles to reach US
South Korea stages military drills near inter-Korean maritime border, and air drills with the United States
Zelensky warns of Russian invasion of NATO countries.
US/Russia holding talks without EU or Ukraine
Stray Russian drones hit Moldova and Romania
Former Bangladeshi PM Hasina accusses Yunus of deploying terrorists, pledges to return and avenge police officers. This seems unlikely, as she doesn't control the state apparatus. However, if she does return, it would lead to wider turmoil in the region.
Southern California has a 36% chance of a M7.5 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years," Elizabeth Cochran with the USGS Earthquake Science Center says. This would wreak havoc upon the state's most populated cities, causing roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damage.
How does this:
The President and the Attorney General, subject to the President’s supervision and control, shall provide authoritative interpretations of law for the executive branch. The President and the Attorney General’s opinions on questions of law are controlling on all employees in the conduct of their official duties. No employee of the executive branch acting in their official capacity may advance an interpretation of the law as the position of the United States that contravenes the President or the Attorney General’s opinion on a matter of law, including but not limited to the issuance of regulations, guidance, and positions advanced in litigation, unless authorized to do so by the President or in writing by the Attorney General.
affect injunctions and rulings? In a plain reading,
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if the Trump administration does something,
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and a judge disagrees and issues an injuction and then a ruling,
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the Trump administration can still disagree with that
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Until it goes up to an appelate court, and then to the Supreme Court.
At which step does the president/AG's interpretation cease to be binding?.
Washington post article on the topic: https://archive.is/XIMum
Geologists warn of an "overdue" very large earthquake for Istambul, and warn that Turkey doesn't have the infrastructure to mitigate it, and millions could die.. Die Erdbebenwarte Kandilli gibt die Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein Beben mit einer Stärke über 7 bis zum Jahr 2030 mit 60 Prozent an.
H5N1 also in India. They were doing less testing so they've caught it later. Or it could be that it only reached them now (unlikely). Authorities in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh have issued an alert and a series of containment measures following the outbreak of bird flu (Avian Influenza H5N1), officials said Thursday.. The outbreak has been reported in Eluru, West Godavari, East Godavari, Krishna and NTR districts of the state, where over half a million poultry birds had died over the last three days
CDC conducted a small survey of 150 bovine veterinary practitioners; 3 had H5N1 antibodies. Also wow is this very little testing still.
Nevada and Ohio report first human cases of bird flu; nominal egg prices hit record high – The Moderate Voice
41 Former Bangladesh Police Officials Arrested Over Crackdown On Hasina Ouster Protests
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Multiple militaries intervened in the Spanish civil war yet it didn't spread into a regional war (unless one counts WW2 lol). In that stronger sense Congo hasn't spread that much throughout the region?
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Edited to clarify that it's a direct quote. Agree it's somewhat overhyped.
Life got in the way for the last few weeks, so I just posted the final versions of the lists I'd been sharing here on monday here
This week I'm looking at:
Trump admin to challenge Humphrey's executor
If US makes nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will not bomb it, Trump says
Iran launches IRF6 production line at Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran's military urges leader to lift fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons
Israel allegedly used toxic gas to suffocate Palestinian fighters, captives in Gaza tunnels.
Israeli PM says he will make sure Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons
UN suspends its humanitarian work in Houthi rebels' stronghold in Yemen after more staff detentions
North Korea warns of retaliation after US nuclear submarine docks in Busan. North Korea has raised concerns over the docking of the USS Alexandria, a US Navy fast-attack nuclear submarine, in South Korea's Busan port, calling it a threat to its national security. The North Korean Ministry of Defence warned that their military is prepared to take necessary actions in response to what it describes as the US's aggressive military presence in the region, expressing alarm at the heightened tensions and potential for military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.
Kim Jong Un slams US-South Korea-Japan partnership and vows to boost nuclear program. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed that the growing security partnership between the United States, South Korea, and Japan represents a significant threat to North Korea. He reaffirmed his commitment to enhancing the country's nuclear weapons program in response to perceived military imbalances caused by this trilateral collaboration. Kim's comments, made during a speech marking the founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army, suggest that he is unlikely to engage in renewed diplomacy with the U.S. under President Trump, given the current state of stalled talks and North Korea's focus on weapon modernization.. cable belonging to Russian Rostelecom broke in the Baltic Sea
Could a rebellion in eastern Congo widen into a regional war?
Egypt to host emergency Arab summit on Palestinian displacement
First whooping cought death in the Washington since 2011
15K to 25K grebes killed by bird flu within Great Salt Lake, Utah officials say
Small model better than o1-preview?
OpenAI roadmap
The Islamic State has regrouped in Somalia — and has global ambitions.
The Somali branch has become the Islamic State’s new operational and financial hub, according to U.S. Africa Command (Africom), and local officials estimate there are as many as 1,000 militants under its command. Large numbers of foreign fighters have flowed into Somalia, establishing a formidable force that now threatens Western targets. The group has also become a key source of funding for other Islamic State affiliates around the world, which have killed thousands of people, including U.S. soldiers, according to U.N. investigators.
UN report finds brutal, systematic repression of protests in fallen Bangladesh regime
Potential spikes in AIDS-related deaths and a resurgence of untreated infections if access to antiviral drugs continues to be frozen by the US
China views the Philippines seeking to organize joint patrols with the US as a provocative move. In response, they conducted their own patrols (cn). Southern Theater Command: The People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command conducts routine patrols in the South China Sea area. (cn)
On February 12, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command carried out routine patrols in the South China Sea, according to Air Force Senior Colonel Tian Junli. The Philippines has been attempting to engage external countries in 'joint patrols', which is viewed as a military provocation that obscures its illegal activities regarding China's maritime rights. China asserts its historical and legal claims over these territories, emphasizing that its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights are undisputed and must be respected. The Southern Theater Command remains on high alert to ensure the defense of national interests and to counter any disruptive military efforts in the region.
(I'm now parsing Chinese military news to check for precursors of a Taiwanese invasion)
Sudan confirms agreement on Russian naval base.
Trump and Putin to begin talks on ending Ukraine war
China is building four more type 093 nuclear attack submarines
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Have you considered starting your own firm targetted? Money to be made with niches like digital nomads, I think. More generally, what do you want from life? If you have a family, can you derive meaning from supporting it?
Oooh, this makes sense, thanks
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