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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 68


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
							
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 4, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah with the benefit of hindsight we can say it was an attack on a core market


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The second things they would do is prioritize whites over non-whites. Does the US do that? DEI and those kinds of organizations and philosophies are designed to hire more non-white people and less whites. On my job review I filled out, I was judged on 20% of my review on DEI type stuff, one of which was hiring more "diverse" candidates. It is illegal to specifically hire whites only and even if it wasn't the country would hate you if you actually did it. All kinds of programs have been set up to get more non-white people into elite institutions through affirmative action and other policies. The isn't a single government program that was created to specifically help whites, but the same can't be said about all other groups. Biden literally said he would only consider a black woman for VP and on the Supreme Court. Their competition in the Republicans would never dream of explicitly saying they'd only pick a white man.




I believe tech companies are meritocratic in the hiring process, at least for the tech positions. Those interviews are regarded as notoriously hard, assuming you even pass the screening.




I don't really have anything else to say other than I'm just baffled that so many supposedly smart and rational people don't think through their arguments and beliefs. Cartesian doubt is apparently out of style. I don't see any evidence whatsoever that white supremacy or racism is anywhere close to the biggest issue the US faces.




Because it's only a belief. There is no consequence for being wrong, nor does it require any effort beyond thinking it. So there is only upside for holding socially acceptable beliefs and zero personal downside in the short-term for holding wrong ones, even of society is made worse in the long-run.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


All thebpenalties come with interest, so the defendants collectively owe around $450 million, not counting the $80+ million owed to E Jean Carroll. Even for Trump, that's serious money. Trump has of course said he will appeal, but to do so he will need to put up the full amount in bond first,




And what are the odds he will pay? Probably not that good. AFIK, no one has collected on the Alex Jones Sandy Hook verdict either, due to asset shielding. Does anyone actually pay these huge civil verdicts out of pocket? I think his much greater concern is losing a criminal case, and even then, Trump is Teflon and nothing sticks to him. And given his advanced age, he may die before paying anyway. Trump is smart enough to savvy enough to know what lines not to cross. Trump being precluded from running would also have to be weighed against the risk of civil unrest and a major retaliatory blowout turnout in 2024.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the cadaver hasn't even cooled yet, assuming he is even dead, and already with with the gofundme.  People are so gullible for this charity shit. Yeah , his kid will  need  home renovations and a new SUV or takes an interest in gambling cryptocurrency.


https://www.gofundme.com/f/artem-tepler+share-sheet-first-launch


SBF should have done this. he could have started dozens of these and he'd probably still be free.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 2, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


One common pattern of argument you often see from people who have not been doing too well in life is that they often blame rich/powerful interests for why they have not been successful, or alternatively why a certain social institution does not seem to work in the best interests of all of society. Their thinking is that to fix the problem, all we need to do is bring these rich/powerful people to heel. The problem according to such people is that fundamentally these small interest groups are disproportionately sucking up value from society and to fix this, they need to be punished.




This is seen   in regard to blaming the FDA and peer review for impeding progress of new ideas and treatments. The FDA does not impede progress and peer review does not stop news ideas. Treatments that fail the FDA are not denied because  of bureaucracy, but because they simply do not work, not because there is some conspiracy by  rich people, drug companies, or governments to deny treatments.  That is what a clinical trial does. But very few experimental drugs yield a successful treatment, especially for cancer. it does not even make business sense for a drug company to 'horde' treatments  given that the government is paying for it anyway under Medicare or Medicaid. Regarding peer review, the process is not to block new ideas but block things which are unscientific to begin with, poor fit for the journal, or not written in a logically coherent  way.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Sorta a low-effort post, but this is the place. It would seem like there is no rational reason to be ethical, from a practical or game theoretic perspective. It's only disadvantageous if everyone or most people are unethical, but if only a few people are unethical they have a major advantage by not playing by the rules. Consider that unethical people can sometimes act with impunity for a long time before facing any consequences, assuming they ever do. Second, the victim(s) has to meet a very high burden of proof for someone who is unethical to be punished.  This means gathering evidence, time  to process evidence, etc. And finally, a lot of unethical people , having achieved success, then transition to becoming legit and covering up their history. The philosophical argument for being ethical fall short. yes, if everyone were unethical society would collapse, but there are enough people who are ethical that this does not happen.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
NFTs are like MTG cards ,yet the latter proved to be a way better investment. MTG cards have the advantage of utility (in the context of playing them)  and scarcity, whereas NFTs have no utility even if there is scarcity in terms of the mint run.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for September 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
bulking sounds a lot more fun than dieting...


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for September 6, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Bad genetics can explain  the existence of a fixed proportion of the population being obese even in the 70s, 60s etc. As food became more palatable and due to sedentary lifestyles, more people in group one became obese, too. Even in the 80s and 70s a certain fraction of the population was obese , around 10-20%. Reading people's personal accounts on Hacker News and elsewhere lends credence to   bad genetics, not willfully overeating,  as  an explanation for some obesity, such as men who consume far fewer calories than predicted by calculators but are  still obese or way overweight (although as a caveat, people tend to underreport caloric intake). Metabolism varies greatly among individuals even controlling for factors like age, height, sex, lifestyles, etc.  Like height, IQ, or any other trait that is normally distributed, it stands to reason there are individuals with the short end of that stick...


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


What is the steelman for voting for Trump in the primaries?






He's not a true outsider anymore. He's not an unknown quantity. We know his temperament. We know his governance style. What does he provide over Desantis/Haley/Ramaswamy? He didn't build the wall the first time, why would he do it now?




Because he's better than the alternatives, and has the greatest odds of beating Biden? It does not have to be deeper than that.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
if I had to guess, buying a business way more risky and work than diversified stock portfolio, even an all-tech portfolio. Also lots of asymmetric info: if a biz is on the up-and-up why would they sell to you? this means tons of due diligence , and having to hire auditor and attorney, which is more money and time. having control of cash flow  assumes there is much margin to work with. lol I know that if I took the opposite point, you and others be telling me how the stock portfolio is way less risky than the biz


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Better border security seems a lot more feasible and practical . Relocating millions  of Arabs won't change anything if the funding for terrorism is intact, as is the antipathy against  the West.  The money for arms is coming from somewhere...focusing on that should be the main priority, combined with better border security and intelligence. Now we see why surveillance exists. 99.9% of the time it seems useless and intrusive , but then incidents like this happen.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 11, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
"does not work out" if you use your own money on leverage, which is what home flippers do. if they are gifted to you and paid off, then you cannot fail.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
cars are great for things that are time-sensitive or far away. Public transportation is so slow and a hassle. walking is really slow. i think having a car is nice because it gives options even if you do not use it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 22, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It would seem obvious to never make up something that can otherwise be easily falsified by someone whose job it is to do that.




A guy is suing Avianca Airlines because he got banged in the knee by a cart during a flight. There is a boring issue around the deadline for filing the lawsuit,^1 which results in the plaintiff's side citing a bunch of very convenient and perfectly on point cases showing they are right on that issue.




I am also curious why wouldn't such a frivolous case be dismissed with prejudice?   And people complain about inflation, high prices, too many warnings or 'safetyism'. I wonder why.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It is to a large extent merit due to being smart, as Dr. Jordan Paterson agrees, but this does not preclude favoritism  too.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 19, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But large conspiracies are not impossible. Many conspiracies continue to exist even when all or most information is publicly available. For example, there was a large scale effort to convince the public that Covid had a zoonotic origin. Perhaps it did, perhaps it didn't. But evidence in support of a lab leak was deliberately denigrated by nearly all authority figures. There was no need to maintain a secret channel of communication. Once consensus was established, peopled picked up the signals to stay on side, and ones who didn't were punished. The best evidence in favor of a lab leak (that the pandemic started near a lab doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses) was never secret. It was just not spoken of.




Yup a notable example of a large scale conspiracy  are the trading strategies used by Renaissance Technologies, which after many decades and hundreds of employees and considerable speculation online are still a secret. Not a single one of those employees spilled the beans to the public, thanks to NDAs and financial incentives to stay quiet.  It is indeed possible for large groups of people to keep secrets for a long time.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 18, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Some have argued, separately, that physics is really more of a hybrid or perhaps even primarily verbal field than a quant field.




But physics is applied math. Theoretical physics is not uncommonly on forefront of math or indistinguishable from pure maths.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 30, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
it is up. themotte butchered the link . this one works https://gofund.me/b72dd8f3


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


oh hey I bought a hard drive on ebay with an old wallet on it so I put it in my coinbase account...the options are endless,




nope. the blockchain can reveal where it came from


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 27, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I am a bit, um, obsessed with the "sex recession": the dramatic decline in sexual activity in high school and college-aged people. Sex is perhaps the most human activity there is--the physical enactment of our Darwinian imperative, the raison d'etre of so many hormone-drenched adolescents. And yet: young people aren't having sex. Why?




It's interesting how some on the right has shifted from decrying how there is too much promiscuity (pre-20210 or so),  to now from a trad-perspective decrying how young people are not having enough sex and lowered fertility rates. The left have become the new prudes, in a figurative neopuritan sense but also literally in terms of everything becoming rape or unfounded rape accusations.




Look, I'm not stupid. At this point, I've had enough experience with the "stereotype literature" to know that, overwhelmingly, stereotypes tend to be true. But even I wasn't prepared for how much sex black teens were having in the 90s. I could cite a lot of different numbers, but just to choose one example: apparently, in 1990, more than 80% of black male 9th graders reported being non-virgins. Over 80%! And even if you rightfully suspect some exaggeration due to male ego, more than 65% of black female 9th graders report being non-virgins.




not too surprising , at least to  me. Black culture is heavily sexualized especially during the pre-2000s: movies, TV, music, etc. Blacks always playing  oversexualized or hyper-masculine roles. Blacks in the early 90s had  more relative social statis in high school back then even compared to now, before the influx  of Hispanics and other groups became more common.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 26, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Ever since the computer first arrived, keyboard and mouse has been the standard. You have a flat surface with raised little squares that you smack with your fingers. You have another little rounded shape with a flat bottom you move around, and click with.




my fingers are not exactly small, and this has not been a problem. every few years a company tries to reinvent the keyboard and mouse, and it never catches on. the Logitech trackball  mouse is one such example. or ergonomic non-QUERTY keyboards, Wacom tablets, or touchpads (except for laptops).




If you haven't seen the recent demo of Apple's new VisionOS they're breaking brand new ground. The entire OS is built around looking at things, and making minute hand motions to control the icons you're looking at. There are no controllers, no physical interfaces whatsoever besides your eyes and your hands. It's breathtaking to watch.




for one, it costs a lot.  Full-immersion headsets have been around for decades and never caught on due to causing  nausea  or other problems.




This awkward, clunky interface has significant culture war elements, in that an entire class of powerful people arose - specifically people who didn't have traditional status markers like height, strength, or indomitable physical presence. Instead these 'nerds' or 'geeks' or whatever you want to call them specialized themselves in the digital realm. Now, the Zuckerburgs and Musks of the prior generation rule the world. Or if they don't, they soon will.




i dunno where this notion of high-iq people or 'nerds' being small and diminutive  came from. it's not backed by evidence either scientific or empirical. given the positive correlation between IQ and height ,we would expect the opposite --for smarter people to be taller, bigger, and heavier. Zuck is short, but Elon and Marc Andreessen are 6'2 and 6'4 respectively.  . when i am walking down the street, the people doing construction/road work, by in large, are really short  but stocky, but shorter and lighter than businessmen for sure, who i can presume to be higher IQ . same for people at cashiers or other retail or homeless or mentally ill  people.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 5, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
That is his angle and it works. Many of his readers  span the spectrum of  the rationalist-right and center-right, who share a large overlap of readership with similar blogs .  Hanania  is not catering or speaking to to the Fox News demographic or the 'Republican base'. There is a huge and underserved  audience of centrist and rationalist conservatism, who reject Fox News low-brow or populist conservatism.   Had he parroted stale trad or mainstream-con talking points, his blog and Twitter-pundit  career would have been DOA. he would need to go on TV instead.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Should lifetime prisoners be incentivized to kill themselves?
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
i am in general agree with Richard Hanania on this issue: the scope of automatic death penalty should be expanded and expedited, and trials shortened and fewer or no appeals.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 14, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
How does anyone be a pundit?  it's so hard to get facts/details right. is it the job of the editor, or extensive research, or just being really good/smart at getting every detail right? some people seem to really excel at this. i have long maintained that being a good pundit or thought leader is harder than even being an executive of a fortune 100 company in terms of skill, because you need to got so many details right and the audience is far more astute than just shareholders or other employees.