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greyenlightenment

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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	 Hot Bump Bottom New Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 16, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


A couple months ago, during some meta-discussion of disappearing threads, I wrote up my thoughts on conspiracy theories as countersignaling. As long as there's incentive to appear cool, independent, unique, there is incentive to push the boundaries of acceptability. It's called "edgy" for a reason.




I have observed the pendulum swinging back the other way...the rise of what I have called normcore-right ,since 2021. These are people who are strongly anti-woke but at the same time hold  mainstream (or normie) views, like about vaccines or even Ukraine. They sometimes take extreme views on otherwise mainstream positions, like Richard Hannia on the death penalty. Or supporting open borders in the case of Caplan.  It's  a subset of the un-woke who have carved out a niche of signaling high-status beliefs appealing to  a well-educated, high-SES audience who are anti-woke but also strongly inclined to reject conspiracy theories , extremism, or  tribalism. It's close to the IDW but more traditionalistic and less secular.  NRO columnist Kevin Williamson started this in 2016 by opposing Trump and also strongly opposing economic populism, and in one of his more famous articles taking an  especially incendiary or hard-core tone in which he said that downtrodden, white-working class towns  “Deserve To Die”', which at the time generated some controversy.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 12, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But even if she avoids jail time, who on earth is going to hire her for any job above, maybe, sweeping the floors ever again?




Well-connected people fail forward all the time


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 21, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They already have enough risk of antitrust litigation without such obvious collusion, so no.


It was only an apple exec who deleted his account, not the entire brand




Apple senior executive Phil Schiller has deactivated his Twitter account. While the exact reasons behind the decision are not known, but it is likely that the exit is a response to Elon Musk's Twitter takeover




				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 13, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I can't help feeling a tinge of awkward self-consciousness whenever I describe myself as part of the modern-day "Rationality" movement. As I've said before, it's perfectly reasonable to be suspicious of a group with such a self-serving and masturbatory name, because isn't everyone in favor of rational thinking? The core lessons of rationality are --- or at least should be --- dreadfully pedestrian: you should test your theories with evidence, you shouldn't believe things that aren't true, you should make logically coherent arguments, threatening to kill someone is not a valid rebuttal to their arguments, et cetera forever.




This is why being self-deprecating is so effective in terms of likability or even persuasion. Same for 'effective altruism'. But lesswrong is not that pretentious and mostly harmless. Even Yudd himself can do a good job approximating a normal human being at times. Aella is just weird even by rationality standards.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 27, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Honestly it's a lost cause. Absolutely nothing will fix it, nothing can fix it, there is no point even talking about it. Its a burn everything down and start from scratch complete problem.




IF we had to limit our discussion to things anyone can fix, 99% of this site would not exist , or pundits for that matter.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 27, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Dilbert Creator Scott Adams: ‘I Decided to Pay’ High Price of Free Speech to Have a Conversation About Race


Dilbert is gone...not in some abstract sense , but   dropped by syndicate, all papers. That's it..kaput.




“Dilbert has been cancelled from all newspapers, websites, calendars, and books because I gave some advice everyone agreed with,” he tweeted. “Dilbert (and more) will only be available on the subscription site http://scottadams.locals.com when sorted out.”




First Kanye, and now Scott Adams. 48 hours to destroy your career. Like Kanye he didn't recant and instead doubled down, but at least he still has his twitter account.  How many people are going to pay  read Dilbert from Scott's personal website? Probably not enough to recover the lost revenue (as he said, he paid a high price). He still has his youtube account, but he's likely on thin ice there.  At least he is good friends with Elon Musk, so his Twitter account should be safe. But damn. I feel mixed about this as to if this was a good move on his part ,or what he hopes to get from destroying his career, connections, etc.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				The Motte Postmortem : slatestarcodex
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have observed that well-argued left-wing positions are well-received here.  It's not as bad as some on reddit are claiming. There might be some pushback but I have seen plenty of right-wing views, like about vaccines, also get pushback.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The reason you can’t just go to jail for shoplifting is the same reason you can’t have a working criminal justice system - any effective anti-crime policy will be functionally indistinguishable from an anti-black policy. Progressive policymakers and prosecutors have understood and internalized this lesson, and have decided to simply ignore criminal recidivism since the alternative is to throw thousands of black people in jail.




yup. same for scrapping or diluting gifted ed programs. or colleges ignoring or discounting the SATs for admissions purposes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				The Motte Postmortem : slatestarcodex
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Right-leaning communities must accommodate leftists or else it's considered an echo chamber , but left-wing communities are allowed to exclude conservatives.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 12, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It was in San Francisco. Not exactly that surprising.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 10, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


What explains the loss of American high achievers in intellectual competitions?




Does video/computer games count as an intellectual competition? I think cultural differences may explain this. Competitive computer games are very popular in Asia.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 19, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Isn't this a form of evidence of Mass Formation Psychosis




Isn't this just conformity, groupthink, etc. It's been around forever. I observed a similar phenomena before and shortly after the Iraq War.


Hacker News is not a total ideological echo chamber. I  have not uncommonly seen vaccine , lockdown, or Fauci-skeptical comments do well. They are probably outnumbered on a 2-1 basis, but it's not as overly lopsided as one may assume, and this was over a year ago. Same for comments on tech censorship  or bias. However, post submissions along those lines do tend to get buried or removed fast though.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
what many of us suspected on day 1, but was labeled as misinformation by major social networks.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The remaining primaries and convention at this point serve as little more  than a coronation  for the inevitable Trump nomination. It was discussed last week the unlikely circumstances in which Trump is prevented from running.  The  questions  now are:


    

  1. 

    The likelihood  Trump wins? Betting markets put the odds between  40-60%, which is not that useful but is what I would expect. The election will be very close and come down to the usual swing states like in 2020 and 2016. Biden's approval ratings are precariously low for an incumbent, especially given that the Electoral College  works to Trump's advantage.
    

    2. 

  2. 

    What will a second Trump term be like? My guess is much like his first term. A lot of  hollow populist gestures to his base  but not much happens. I still don't understand these people who are otherwise centrist or middle-left like Matt Yglesias and Noah Smith, who predict or expect a foreign policy  crisis if trump wins , but always fail to articulate what this entails. I guess they have to keep toeing the 'orange man bad' line even though he was not that bad, and the economy and other metrics did well under his presidency (until Covid, which was out of his control anyway).   Key alliances were strained much, as commonly feared in 2016-2017. The leadership of allies like Germany and France begrudgingly accepted Trump, and not much else happened.
    

    3. 



				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 25, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It was a big deal in 2015-2019 online especially, but like a lot of things of that era, it fizzled out. The peak was 2017 , before the ill-fated Unite the Right rally, as you mentioned. It has been replaced/subsumed by the civ-nat/trad people  on Twitter, who tend to reject the paganism or secularity of the alt-right, while still being anti-left. This is higher status too. The alt-right was damaged by being low status and being associated with LARP-ing behavior.




Even when they got together at their biggest event with Unite the Right in Charlottesville, there were barely 1,000 of them and they were vastly outnumbered by counter-protesters.




That is typically what you would expect for a movement that is mostly online. Considering that attending such an event is not without risks (like being assaulted or loss of employment), this is an underestimate of actual support.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				ACX: Galton, Ehrlich, Buck
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I was not at all familiar with Ehrlich’s work,




His 'work'  is a 1968 book in which he was wrong about everything, and then a follow-up book in which he is also wrong. At 90 he's still collecting tenure.   He epitomizes everything wrong with academia and public intellectuals. Be wrong and still get paid and get accolades.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/us/jordan-neely-daniel-penny-new-york-subway-death-charge/index.html


Daniel Penny, a 24-year old Marine, turned himself to police after being charged with 2nd degree manslaughter for the killing of Jordan Neely. It looks like I was initially wrong. I said that drugs may have played a role given that the original NYTs story, which I replied to, from a week ago said that Neely had been choked for only 2-3 minutes and released and was unresponsive. The updated story is that he was choked out for much longer,  as long as 15 minutes, which would have def. been lethal, and the video is pretty bad.


So retract my original argument in which I posit drugs played a role.  This is why you should always wait until you have all the information before forming an opinion. I didn't think the story would blow up like it did. I just assumed it was some random altercation. The video is why it went so viral. I think Penny is not without some guilt here. Keeping someone in a choke for so long is going to  end in death. It's likely Neely was not rendered unconscious  near-instantly  from blood loss to the brain, such as from a sleeper hold as I assumed from the original story (I assumed Penny put Neely in a hold, and then Neely went limp in 20-30 seconds and did not come back), but  far worse, had been suffocated to death, like being held underwater because his windpipe was restricted.  That's why he was flailing around. It would have been more humane had Penny just shot him although that would have carried a worse charge.


A second degree manslaughter conviction is not that bad. only max 15 years for killing someone, and with parole Penny may only spend 5 years, which is a pretty lenient sentence for killing a guy, and not even in self defense or accident. By comparison, Ross Ulbricht faces multiple life sentences despite not killing anyone.    I cannot say Penny is not without some blame in this matter.  But In Penny's defense, the police took too long to come, and despite Marine training he and his accomplices didn't know what else to do.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 9, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The vaccine debate has to be the least productive of any topic. has anyone on either side ever had their minds changed on this issue despite all the ink spilled? Given how many people have taken the vaccines (billions worldwide) if there was even a small uptick in deaths and other complications, it would be a huge deal and unavoidable.  You would not need to comb through huge troves of data to find maybe a tiny uptick in deaths for some small cohort


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 28, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Jiang Zemin




as Stefferi mentioned ,he was 96


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 14, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The ADL sucks because it's perceived  as self-serving and intolerant of criticism. Anything outside of a narrow worldview of acceptable discourse is considered hate speech. Criticizing Christianity, or white people in general? Perfectly tolerated. Criticism  or jokes about Judaism or Jewish people? Off limits.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 24, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Finally we're seeing the extent of the damage of the Kanye controversy


In the span of a month, Kanye West has destroyed his empire




The losses have cost Ye billions, he says, but he's unfazed. In an Instagram post Thursday, he said, "I lost 2 billion dollars in one day and I'm still alive." The dropoff means West may have fallen out of the billionaires' club. As of Thursday morning, Forbes estimates his net worth is $400 million; the news outlet previously estimated the value of Ye's Adidas deal to be $1.5 billion.






Meanwhile, Gap announced Tuesday that it had shut down YeezyGap.com and was taking immediate action remove those products from stores, saying, "Antisemitism, racism, and hate in any form are inexcusable and not tolerated in accordance with our values."




yup..YeezyGap.com redirects to gap.com


What I don't understand is, how is his wealth being calculated here? Wouldn't Kanye's wealth be a roughly monotonically increasing function , that being his income from his endorsement deals? Losing said deals would not mean he has to forfeit accumulated wealth, just that he stops making any new wealth?  So either he was never worth $2 billion or this decline is somehow based on some extrapolation?


From the Forbes link, it looks like an extrapolation : https://www.forbes.com/profile/kanye-west/?sh=515edd0c56f1




Forbes had valued the Adidas deal at $1.5 billion. Without it, West's fortune drops to $400 million.




That seems misleading to say someone is worth something but it's not  actually realized


To add, it shows how the mere accusation  of racism or antisemitism is the left's  superpower. It forces the accused to go on the defense and presumes some guilt. Any nuance or misunderstanding on the accused goes out the window. You can destroy someone's reputation this way even if it was a mistake. As popular as anti-woke sentiment is on twitter ,like Rogan and Musk, it does not matter if the people who hold the levers of power are still, by in large, woke , and and you have to literally be a self-made millionaire to survive said accusations without being completely destroyed career-wise or reputationally.  Someone  can argue "what Kanye said was really egregious" but people have been cancelled, banned for less and it does not change the automatic presumption of guilt.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Steve Bannon Sentenced to 4 Months in Prison Archive link




The infamous, triple-shirted, right-wing political provocateur was sentenced Friday for defying the Congressional investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection. He was also fined $6,500.






Bannon faced a maximum possible two years under the law. Prosecutors had asked the judge for six months, which was the longest sentence they could request in accordance with federal sentencing guideline calculations that account for the broader circumstances of the case. Bannon’s attorneys had asked Judge Carl Nichols for probation.






Bannon’s forthcoming stint in prison could be just the start of a new life behind bars for the longtime Trump ally, however. That’s because Bannon’s also defending himself in a much more serious financial fraud case in New York, in which he’s accused of ripping off Trump supporters who donated funds for an allegedly-sham charity to build a private wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.






In the New York case, Bannon faces as much as 15 years of incarceration for just the most serious of his five alleged felonies.




Interesting how the state fraud change for his wall scam, which affected average individuals, has a waaaayyy worse max punishment than the contempt of Congress charge, which affects one of the highest offices of the land. Same for contempt of court, tax evasion...pretty much anything except treason or espionage  is punished less severely than basic fraud. It's one of the quirks of the criminal justice system that fraud against an individual or company is not uncommonly punished way worse than defying the fed. government.


Trump pardoned Bannon for the fraud case on a federal level, but this does not apply to state charges. However, if found guilty, he could be eligible parole, because it's state, unlike the federal charge, so that's good news for him I guess.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 17, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


And yet, Tidal is still around, as is Amazon Music, Apple Music, Pandora, Youtube Music, SiriusXM, and even fucking Napster survives!




That is one of the myths about the dotcom companies. They are surprisingly  resilient and do not go away even when they lose money for a long time. It's easy to keep these companies alive a long time by cutting costs and with an unending , steady trickle of VC money. Or they get acquired or rebrand.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 3, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It became low status around mid 2018 but lingered until around mid 2021, when it finally died out when Nick Fuentes, the last holdout, had his twitter account suspended. Also, de-platforming . It's hard to create a movement when its members keep being arrested or booted off every platform. I think the alt-right has been replaced by the ethno-trad right, especially on Twitter starting in 2021. It's composed of popular people  like Cernovich and Posobiec who evaded the de-platforming that plagued  alt-right, and puts much more emphasis on Christianity, self-improvement, and mainstream conservative politics (generally a white pill message) compared to the alt-right, which tended to be more negative, nihilistic, and eschew mainstream politics.  I think the alt-right  became associated with doomerism and larping, which made it low status. The 4chan people however are not going away  but they don't seem to have as much influence as they had in the past, before 2018


From 2015-2018 or so was a period of indecisiveness  and uncertainty. The Obama era was closing, and then Trump against all odds won,  but no one knew what was next. There was an opportunity for fringe movements like the alt-right to fill this gap. But by early 2021 with the inauguration of Biden, it became clear what the stakes were: the woke vs. anti-woke, but the alt-right does not fit into this categorization or paradigm, so it became irrelevant.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 26, 2022
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Also , the collapse of Euro, Yen, AUD, and Pound, and the surge of US dollar. Even when things seem to be  going badly here, things are worse overseas, like higher inflation, worse energy shortages , more unrest (like in Iran now).