BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
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User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
If he knew it was coming the way to consolidate power would have been a thousand Palestinians dead in the attack, a handful of civilians, and a 100 IDF. Looking extremely competent as you crush a massive attack as it happens boost support. Instead he looks incompetent. I guess you would make Hamas think your weak but have everything in place to crush the attack.
The only 4-D chess move for letting the attack happen would be getting the world to accept that Palestine and Israel can not exists together and getting global community to look the other way as you create 2 million refugees and someone like Egypt reluctantly accepting them.
The latest Trump legal woes comes once again from NY where a judge ordered his business dissolved for fraud. Nobody losts money and it came down to some misstatements. I haven’t read the full case, but the judge on a high profile part of the case is completely off. Not even ballpark off.
He valued Mar-a-Lago at 17-25 million. I texted a broker in the area and he told me 100 million for an ocean acre and 25 million for a non-ocean acres. Mar is between 17-20 acres depending where you look online. Palm Beach has gone up a lot since COVID so maybe divide those numbers by 2 since Trump made his filling. He listed the property at 450-650 million. Without doing a full underwriting (maybe zoning issues where it couldn’t be worth the raw land price) it still appears Mar is worth a lot of money.
If you are going to do lawfare shouldn’t you avoid obvious mistakes? It’s easy to see a headline and write this whole case off as political. It weakens public perception of all other cases if you make mistakes that are this stupid.
If I am remembering this case correctly he did likely violate the law and include some statement that were obviously false but in a category that no one besides Donald Trump gets prosecuted for. So the case of Mar-a-Lago violates a principle of maintaining plausible deniability.
Edit: @AshLael looked up the prosecutors brief and it appears they did not use the tax assessment for valuation purposes. Which would negate my main point. The judge has a history of making stuff up against real estate developers and being later reversed. It’s quite possible this judge hates developers and just does stupid things.
https://twitter.com/goodguyguaranty/status/1707232241925910944?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
https://nypost.com/2023/09/27/mar-a-lago-judges-developer-hating-past-is-a-big-win-for-donald-trump/
Which would change the ruling and it’s citations to much more of all developer are bastards story (which is culture war) than my why are you lawfaring stupidly story
sliders1234
1yr ago
Seems fairly easy. Just say if he is guilty of these charges then I trust you will prosecute him and he will be unable to earn revenue while imprisoned.
sliders1234
2yr ago
Redpillers have an inherent logic to them too. They don’t think men and women are the same so there’s no issue there. They believe men and women have different desires.
sliders1234
2yr ago
This feels only deserving of low effort responses since it proposes burning everything down and then ???? Everything is better. Without using any theory or explanation.
Seen these arguments before. And they don’t work and this is particularly poorly explained. But even the manifesto versions just turn into long Joker type rants.
sliders1234
2yr ago
The fundamental problem is Russia has never offered Ukraine an acceptable peace deal with security guarantees they will not reinvade at a later date. I wouldn’t have a problem with Luhansk, Donestk and Crimea going to the Russians with necessary security guarantees that Russia can’t try to conquoer the rest of Ukraine later. That offer has not been made.
More broadly as others have mentioned peace in Ukraine has to fit inside broader global security guarantees. US security umbrella globally needs to be binding. If the US gives into nuclear blackmail today then tomorrow we have 5x the number of nuclear armed countries. Taiwan, S Korea, Japan within 2 years. Saudis not long after. If the Saudis are nuclear then Iran becomes nuclear. Potentially Finland and perhaps some of the Baltic states jointly develop. Poland definitely goes nuclear.
Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and play the nuclear threat game because the alternative risks is higher.
You would basically be looking at any country feeling pressure from China/Russia considering their nuclear options if they no longer trust American guarantees.
sliders1234
2yr ago
Bryan Caplan wrote on this subject a while ago. He thinks banning workplace relationships is one of the most repressive anti freedom things we’ve ever done. Most people spend a lot of time at work. I’ll just link to him because he’s smarter than me but I share his opinion.
https://betonit.substack.com/p/love-is-love-workplace-edition
Him being married is bad from a religious/puritanical perspective. But consensual relationships should not be punished.
Also real power is still real power today. Deshaun Watson isn’t replaceable or Elon Musks. Both got paid. But for all us little people don’t put your dick where you work and have good bumble game.
sliders1234
11mo ago
Honestly looks like incompetence to me. The conspiracy would seem to need to be too big to be pulled off. You would have needed to recruit idiot kid to do the shooting and also need local police to be incompetent and not stumble on him.
If you recruited idiot kid to do the shooting then you have to hope local police do not take him alive.
There are too many points of failure and too many people who would need to be in the know for this to have been a legitimate conspiracy to assassinate Trump.
I take this as evidence that our institutions have completely rotted away with DEI and we no longer have institutional capabilities to do anything. Its a nation in decline except that tech scales and we have like 1k smart people in San Fran doing things.
The curtain has been pulled back. The big reveal was Biden at the debate. This is why Trump is unbeatable now. Everyone knows the country is in decline and poorly managed now.
sliders1234
1yr ago
As someone who preferred the other GOP candidates I do not feel like Ive had a choice on who to vote for in the primary.
Ever since lawfare began against Trump it has forced the right to vote for him. Simply put you can not allow members of your political coalition be bullied. You have to fight together or die alone.
Reason 2: Entertainment
sliders1234
2yr ago
And the fbi was in possession of the laptop. If this isn’t direct interference in an election then I don’t know what is. The fbi literally knew the laptop was real and not a hack then misinformed the American people which led to a change in election outcomes.
sliders1234
2yr ago
This just seems like the adage go woke go broke. And it’s not just Amazon it’s a universal issue.
I think it comes back to the Italian Prime Minister Meloni speech that was in the headlines that basically summed up to people having an identity and not being a consumption machine. If people don’t have a family relations, religion, a background then there’s nothing interesting to tell a story about them. They are empty people.
HBO has a similar issue with their dragon show. Corlys Velaryon had a quote, “History does not remember blood it remembers names.” The character no longer cared if his house seat had a Velaryon sitting on it. The origional GOT was obsessed with their bloodlines. Historically all societies have been obsessed with their ancestors. It’s basic evolutionary biology. We are programmed to not be the end of our line. The only close to political similiarity is Julius Caeser adopting Octavian (not sure if he was nephew in law or shared some blood).
HBO use to dominate at character creation. I haven’t been able to watch anything new on HBO and find myself constantly wanting to rewatch old things.
Of course I posted a reply to people on Reddit saying they loved the quote. And of course I got downvoted.
The old communists we hated who made movies still understood the human condition and identity. Modern writers write as if everyone is the same on the inside with no background but on the outside are different.
I mean we did have real fraud in 2020. It’s just people ignore the obvious frauds.
The expanse of mass-mail in voting is considered fraud by historical Democratic principals. Trump wins in a landslide without that.
At this point it is beyond proven that the FBI interfered with social media with regards to the Hunter Biden laptop. They knew it was real the entire time. The CIA helped cover that up.
These things aren’t conspiracies. They are proven and changed the election.
I don’t know why we are doing both-sides here.
Now I agree the right has gone too far. I know people who never rational think thru issues anymore and just assume they are being lied to.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Inside Disney and internal corporate boardroom drama. Iger appointed Chapek as his successor but ended up decided coming back. It touches on the fight with Desantis, the prior generation deciding not to retire, internal power struggles, managing a business where no one has the skillset for all of the businesses (creative, running parks, international, finance, sports, launching a streaming business). About a 15-20 min. Iger seems more interested in the Desantis fight than Chapek who just wanted to play nice.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/09/06/disney-succession-mess-iger-chapek.html
sliders1234
1yr ago
I’ve been making that comparison for atleast 8 months. Ever since Scott ran an article on social contagion in anorexia and how anorexia wasn’t common at all until females herd about it.
Honestly been curious if I was the first to use the term like that. But it’s been popping up a lot on social media past few months and others here have been using for atleast 3-4 months. I probably wasn’t first but the social contagion comparison between trans and anorexia I’ve been using for a while.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I can walk and chew gum at the same time. I think this is the best fallacy for your argument.
Texas is both a leader in shale and wind energy. Also has a Tesla battery factor. Even if you are right for when shale oil production will fall the energy people have pursued both paths at the same time.
Honestly I love this stuff. Isn’t this what Democracy is about? People fighting over how to govern? I guess there are two ways to do it.
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Make a decision in a smoke filled room and every one falls in line and votes how their suppose to.
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Have an open public debate on how to govern and people fighting in public.
(2) feels far more Democratic to me. Sure eventually the no votes need to fall in line and vote McCarthy but they deserve every right to try and trigger an exodus to someone else.
sliders1234
2yr ago
I just discovered ex-gay twitter. I personally agree with their viewpoint that a lot of gays would be happier be heterosexually married with the occasional gay experience. Mostly I just think most men even gay have naturally desires for a family and that’s best in a heterosexual relationship. And most gays don’t want to do the mundane women work of watching little kids but would rather be the more aloof father that does the male roles. You can put me in that camp that we are an evolved species with deeply rooted programming on what leads us to a happy life. And homosexuality to me seems like a couple of your genes are off that may individually have benefits but combined turned your gay, but the vast majority of your genetic programming is still happier in traditional heterosexual relationships. As a society we have decided that a small bit of a person their sexuality should dominate the totality of that person.
Culture war wise these views are far outside of appropriate viewpoints today. Anyway here’s the articles and twitter threads on the movement. Even for someone with a belief that society should be more libertarian I still think our culture has gone wrong and promoted the old ways is better for the species just not by government force.
https://www.piratewires.com/p/ex-gay-twitter
https://twitter.com/piratewires/status/1584941608688320512?s=46&t=Dc1wiLnAbZQuf1ZEsEPebA
sliders1234
1yr ago
Blocking $26 billion in aid to an extremely wealthy country that also has the wealthiest per capita diaspora community is now anti-semitism? When the country sending the money has a $1.5 trillion budget deficit?
I’m pro sending money to Ukraine because they are a poor country fighting out geopolitical enemies but I don’t understand sending money to a wealthy nation like Israel especially not when we are essentially funding both sides.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I had to look up Ray Kroc because there was something I was guessing that has a good culture war angle not discussed. Foundations and donations over the long term seem to always end up in the left camp.
Ray Kroc my intuition was telling me he would not be a leftist. To no one’s surprise a small business owners political philosophy is described in Wikipedia as
“A lifelong Republican, Kroc believed firmly in self-reliance and staunchly opposed government welfare and the New Deal. Kroc donated $255,000 to Richard Nixon's reelection campaign in 1972”
I guess it was actually his widowed wife’s estate that donated $200 million to NPR, but still seems there is a conservative can create a foundation and 30 years after their death the money ends up supporting everything they were opposed to.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t see any shitty parenting unless there is a lot more going on. A few text messages that look bad. If a prosecutor went thru my phone they will find plenty of shitty stuff I’ve done and a lot of stuff out of context.
I had some rough times in school sometime. Kids get depressed. Bullying happens. Most just grow up. Kids need to work thru there issues and grow up. I’m fairly certain Elon Musks had shittier parents than this. Very few kids grow up a member of the Brady Bunch and my guess is the vast majority of kids have some family dysfunction.
This actually scares me this definition of “shitty parents” because it sounds a lot like helicopter parenting instead of what I think is much better of just letting kids do what they want to do. I think the latter leads to children being much better adults and key to them developing their own self-esteem. I don’t want a legal standard where a parent needs to micromanage every bad thought their kids have.
I agree with guns should be locked up and secure. Though I feel like there is a ton of hypocrisy here as I’ve never seen a black father convicted of this.
This will probably get some play and is a bit of a different topic. Former CEO of YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicicki son died of a drug freshman year of college at Cal.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/former-youtube-ceos-son-found-dead-uc-berkeley-rcna139355
The obvious implications is he took something laced with fentanyl. Culture war wise concerns about fentanyl are red coded though issues with fentanyl seem apparent in both red and blue states and people.
Overall I feel like this issue has lost its place in the news cycle. A quick google overdose deaths topped 112k in 2023 an all-time record. I am seeing a current U.S. population of 334 million. So to put this in perspective 112k multiplied by an average lifespan of 80 years is like 9 million deaths. Or close to 3% of US population at current rates will die by a drug overdose. I think I can fairly say it’s a huge issue even if you disagree with how I’m calculating the average persons risks of OD at around 3% in their lifetime.
Quick analysis of the kid he looks in shape for a 19 year old and was majoring in math so he’s the dream of any parent. Odd thing is he was found unresponsive at 4:23 pm on a Tuesday. That is going to be weird and details will come out as that time frame is more of an addict death. Versus I expected a weekend OD and he did some fentanyl laced coke/Molly during the weekend.
From people I’ve talked to opioids are amazing. I do not know if I’ve ever done them. They have to be if people do them. I’ve done molly/coke/mushrooms in the past. The big thing to me is I’m paranoid I’m doing something laced now and have largely cut out doing anything now.
The midtwit take is that dealers either sell both and cross contaminate or lace other drugs to get people addicted. Personally opinion and perhaps a difference without a difference is it’s probably lacing just so people say it’s the good shit.
Sorry for their loss.
Culture war issues
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Plays into the immigration debate of not controlling the border
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Blue states seem to be adopting a let it happen and treat but it doesn’t seem to be working
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War on drug topics. I don’t think the old war on drugs ever dealt with the death rate we have now but war on drugs doesn’t seem stupid when it’s a 3% population level lifetime death rate which is far higher than COVID and killing people with high life expectancy
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Other policy considerations. Some would say things like legalize drugs to kill fentanyl and people get “safe” drugs. Some conservative arguments that something’s should just be illegal. Opioids probably are fantastic but the death rate for someone who tries opioids seems extremely high.
My numeracy tells me this is a big problem and I believe an order of magnitude bigger problem than COVID. I don’t think it’s quite as hard coded in culture wars.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This test feels like it is cartoonish. To the point where it was either the KKK who were assigned to boost AA and decided let’s make black people say they suck at science and then go collect our bonus for boosting AA or some senior dude just got pissed he had guys not on merit and created a test so dumb it wins a lawsuit easily. Basically got pissed at the politicians.
There has to be less obvious ways to cheat on an exam than this.
1460 SAT and rejected at Cornell has been trending on Twitter the last few days.
https://twitter.com/maiab/status/1736766407348814091?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
A lot of the takes were about him being rejected because he is white. The thing I find interesting is the condensing of the top 1-5% of scores into a smaller score range over time. My guess since the score differences look smaller it lets schools select more for other characteristics rather than pure mental horsepower. Getting a perfect score today or something that looks similar 1550 plus will not differentiate people as much.
Elon Musks apparently had a 1400 SAT. Bill Gates a 1590. Obviously they are both smart but I feel fairly confident Bill Gates is significantly higher pure IQ. With the way normal distributions operate I feel confident saying there is a big intelligence difference between the two but on the current system Musks would probably get 1580 and Gates 1600.
Digging thru SAT history there have been a few key years where the test had significant changes.
1993/1995 - some test changes but the big thing was a recentering to get scores back to about 1000 from 900. Before this update a median score at HYPS would have been 1370-1400 area. Bill Gates 1590 would have really stood out and guaranteed alone admittance to Harvard.
2005 - attempts to move the test closer to high school curriculum and eliminated analogies and quant comparisons. My guess is this made the test less of a pure intelligence test and closed gaps between highest performers and mid range.
2016 - more I guess dumbing down and trying to make the test more like what they did in high school. Multiple choice questions went from 5 options to 4 options and wrong answers no longer carried a penalty. This would make educated guessing far better.
Here is the current percentile for different scores.
https://blog.prepscholar.com/sat-percentiles-and-score-rankings
1500 is now solidly top 2%. 1450 is top 4%.
Here is the data from 2003
https://blog.prepscholar.com/sat-historical-percentiles-for-2005-2004-2003
1490-1600 was solidly differentiating between the top 1%.
I believe the new scoring significantly hurts the outliers at standing out from the test. And likely hurts the highest performing white, Asian, and Jewish males at getting into the most selective schools since the difference between a 1530 and 1600 SAT score just doesn’t seem that big statistically. It feels to me that studying for the new exam and learning test taking skills are more important today. Perhaps, you think this isn’t a big deal that the raw mental abilities of the top 1.2% and .3% of the population isn’t important and allowing schools to select more on other criteria is more important. My opinion for the very top programs finding the Bill Gates level intelligence matters. Men also have different intelligence bell curves (more people on the extremes) therefore on net I believe it hurts males.
I am also curious how someone who is really good at math could stand out in today’s environment. The SAT and a few good AP math scores wouldn’t seem to be enough. Do you need to have the opportunity to compete in high-end math tournaments?
Personally, the new testing I believe would have significantly effected my life. Coming from a lower class white family being able to crush the SAT gave me a way to stand out for a relatively cheap costs.
I am seeing a median SAT score of 1520 at Harvard and a median of 1440 at UMICH. My guess is back in the day that gap was much higher.
sliders1234
2yr ago
I think “conservatives” could be logically consistent about bringing politics into supports with one caveat
- they didn’t realize the national anthem itself was political. Your American so therefore you like America.
Thru this logic Kap added politics where there was none. And Reimer didn’t add politics it was the nhl adding politics by forcing him to be pro-pride politics.
As long as the anthem isn’t politics then theirs no logical issue with the conservative position. They just scold the NHL for adding politics.
I am starting to think Jews are going to be in a bad place. I had a belief a decade ago that when there was some crazy college protest it was no big deal. The kids will grow up, get a job, get pregnant and go about the life grind. College idealism and learning half an issue dissipates once your grinding out life. Now it seems as though they have taken over everything.
If things continue on this path then the next Democratic administration will probably cut off Israel and do nothing if Israel is attacked. Israel will have to stand alone in the world surrounded by a lot of people who hate them.
The only real counter to this feeling is the Jews own too much of the media and think tanks etc and will be able to cut this virus down.
And a part me laughs a bit. They fucked around and found out. They didn’t do anything when the other white ethnicities were getting blasted and some orgs like the ADL promote white hate. And then the gun was turned on them.
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