sliders1234
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User ID: 685
sliders1234
1yr ago
All of this data is well known and I would suggest not novel research. It’s data that’s ignored. Alex Tabarrok has been talking about these issues for at least a decade.
This is basically why I turned on BLM quite early before it was cool because non of the data fits their narrative. We’ve always had data that we are over-incarceration. I’ve never seen data that we are over policed or police are excessively violent. There’s a reason George Floyd was the front man for police violence whose death was no doubt heavily related to his own health decisions.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Different solution would be to just throw people in jail for market manipulation. Melvin Capital is clear victim here. It’s illegal for people to act as a group to corner a market. That’s market manipulation. Instead of a few rich people in a smoke filled room organizing their play it was done on social media. People involved in the manipulation should go to jail.
Don’t censor speech. Arrest people for their actions.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Yes. Jews always over represent in all online communities. Overrepresent in academia and creative arts. I’ve just accepted Jews are smarter than the average white person probably thru centuries of being banned from manual labor and thus breeding higher intellects.
$3-4 a share was a cigar butt. $19 was after the manipulation started.
Melvin actually wasn’t that big of position for any reasonable valuation. But positions that were .5% of your fund become 50% of your fund when they go up 100%.
My valuations from memory might be off but my guess is you were already paying full or 50% above the cigar people numbers.
Also they exited at like $300 a share. At that point it was a manipulation of market structure and nothing fundamental .
sliders1234
1yr ago
You need voting for engagement and participation so people get a dopamine effect of either anger or everyone loves me.
And I’m someone who never votes. But not getting a dopamine effect might push people to other venues.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Puts have their own issue of negative carry and needing to be right on timing.
If you have a diversified short book and can theoretically hold forever then you have no negative carry and Can assuming valuations stay reasonable your max loss isn’t that much. I mean worse case for a cigar butt stock was a 3X loss for Melvin on a very small part of book. Market manipulation (which is ILLEGAL) is why the position didn’t work. Melvin wasn’t a market timing firm where puts would make more sense.
And acting as a group to acquire over X amount of a firm is ILLEGAL which theirs no lack of evidence that the market manipulators were NOT encouraging acting as a group behavior . Elon Musks broke security law by acquiring more than X% of a stock. And if he split up the order with a buddy it would be ILLEGAL.
Melvins risks management was simple. Assume the SEC enforces security law.
This is all in Dodd Frank. You can’t even put a short term bid offer in the market anymore to bluff your intentions or you go to jail.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Sure but that’s because the company discovered cancer or something big and it’s worth more.
Not because trade manipulated the market and organized collective action to force trading.
People are on trial over -60 oil because the broke securities law. That Asian dude who had a bunch of hidden swaps has criminal issues because he broke securities law.
sliders1234
1yr ago
That adds negative carry and that heuristic which just get owned by the 2sigma and rentech types calculating their stops and running them
sliders1234
1yr ago
A lot of institutions are doing this now. Rhodes Scholars was heavily female.
Somewhat related AEI conferences are requiring masks. But claim they don’t discriminate by politics or race or a bunch of other things.
At this point (no proof they work) wearing a masks is about as repugnant a thing a Republican can. You are basically excluding from your event economists who represent the views of half the population. It’s no different than forcing a Hindu to eat beef.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Tell me when I can apply for reinstatement to subs that banned me for COVID misinformation. My guess is It just was confirmation I was wrong tribe.
I assume Russia cuts a deal with the west. Call me racists but I think they would prefer to be a NATO colony than a Chinese colony.
Also offer Russia a way out. Europe doesn’t want to freeze. We don’t want Russia aligned with China. Offer peace. Maybe with a Putin in exile string and we can all just call this a disagreement amongst friends.
Offer Putin a mansion on Star Island and his yachts parked nearby.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Ok I just did
sliders1234
1yr ago
Predictably mods didn’t reply
sliders1234
1yr ago
I keep getting surprised that a Professor Garrett Jones hasn’t been canceled for wrongthink. Granted. He works for George Mason which has been different for decades now.
He just released a new book, “The Culture Transplant: How Migrants Make the Economies They Move To a Lot Like the Ones They Left”
I think the title is self-explanatory and it’s going to be Maga supporting and argue to keep certain cultures out from immigrating. His last book “Hive Mind: How your nations IQ matters so much more than your own”. Basically made the point that a lot of low IQ people in a nation will lead to a low trust society and poor government performance.
While he does appear to avoid saying it directly - don’t let in a lot of low IQ immigrants into your country or your country will fail; I believe any rational person would come to that conclusion.
Longer term there will not be assimilation with certain groups and it will cause governance issues. America seems to have different results with assimilation. African Americans outside of a tiny subset never become blended Americans. All kinds of Europeans ended up for the most part blending in. Hispanic people seem to do both - assimilate and at times stay seperate.
It does seem that certain cultures do well anyway. Like Jews or Han Chinese who end up retaining a lot of their culture.
I’m surprised he hasn’t yet been Charles Murrayed because his arguments I believe are based on similar beliefs. And then explaining why allowing more low IQ individuals into a country will lead to bad results.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Richard Hannania had an interest point on gay marriage yesterday. He like me has trouble making a direct attack on gay marriage. But the gay marriage bundle (he used woke bundle) as a whole seems like it’s been a big negative. I’d use Pride bundle. He cited rising depression on the left; I usually cite falling fertility as a bad thing.
Maybe I just want to get to dislike gays like 2 decades ago. But the bundle argument which gay marriage seemed to be the spears tip seems like it’s been a giant negative for society. And then you get an argument of can you pick and choose policy and get ride of Pride but keep gay marriage or you just have to suppress the whole thing.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I agree with your point that gay marriage is a result of sexuality being decoupled from reproduction. And hence with the decoupling banning gay marriage just becomes bigotry.
But I don’t know how to attack the root cause which I think on net has been a negative.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I think people want characters who are believable and correspond with the real world.
Racists Targaryen’s for good cause (maintain special abilities) aren’t going to have a black side family. Black men playing leading men in some movies I’ve liked Man on Fire, Training Day, origional Matrix, The Wire I’ve all liked. Silicon Valley with Indian D’Nesh made sense. If they made Wall St 3 and substituted in an all black women cast I wouldn’t find it believable. If they remade the Wire and made all the cops black and all the drug dealers white I would find it stupid because the urban white ghetto doesn’t exists.
Also feels like Woke writing is upset with having the proper balance instead of telling the proper story. And there’s something about woke trying to create characters they want them to be that then loses the characters humanity. Which might be the bigger issue because being woke means you can’t show actual human emotions and flaws and characters become comic book characters.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This seems to me to ignore all the times the left loses. The right wants to conserve how things are because what worked in the past and especially in a nation as successful as America is likely to work in the future. The left is like a scientist who runs a 1000 experiments trying to find a physics breakthrough. Most of the time the experiment fails. The rights job is to block the left from doing too much but once an idea appears to be working then they take the position.
Also the right has won before. Neoliberalism was a right wing extremists ideology. It has largely been adopted by the left. The left now has to frame their social spending in neoliberal terms and not as plain redistribution. Student loan forgiveness isn’t just a handout to constituencies but will boost growth by increasing education, spending power, and allowing college students more freedom to pursue their passions.
sliders1234
1yr ago
You can still have you own moral view and want to do things on the right. And sometimes we make moves to reverse things.
But I was replying to why the right always loses and for the most part it’s because the primary purpose of right and left is for the right to guide and block the left. And only occassionally allow change.
To be fair there is a big difference between not voting for an atheist and banning the atheist from free speech.
I don’t have any belief that a person like myself could become the Presidential nomination for the Democratic Party but I think in 1995 I could hire you as my investment banker. I am not sure that I could openly be myself at Goldman Sachs or google today. Theirs a huge hosts of elite employers today where I’m unemployable today even if I had impeccable qualifications.
I am sure job limitations happened significantly in the past but now it’s like 40% of the population is excluded.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I think the problem is it comes down to the amount of people being censored. The lefts desire seems to be to want to censor 50% of the population maybe more. I don’t believe this is the same as communists which was a small part of the population. We were also at war with communists at the time. Actual shooting war almost the entire time. And it’s an I’ll ideology that’s has proven itself to be disastrous to mankind.
The problem today is now 50% of the population wants to censor the other 50% of the population and now EVERYTHING is literally fighting Nazis. I think the difference is sometimes you are actually literally fighting Nazis (and I include communists in this too) and sometimes you are fighting people debating scientific papers (masks, vaccine studies) and equating these people as being the equivalent of literally Hitler. We all agree with murdering and censoring Hitler. The difference today is everyone who disagrees with you literally Hitler because they looked at some studies and don’t think there is a reason for them to wear a masks?
sliders1234
1yr ago
Sure that’s consensus building. Point I was making similar to Hannania is everyone (almost everyone believes) in some repression of a great bad. Hitler I’m assuming to 98% of Americans is that great bad. The comic book villain whose sole pleasure of tormenting humans. And the closest real example of someone with near universal support as the great bad.
Sure most great bads actually have large support basis. Darth Maul ended up being the defender of planets being abused by the Capitol and the Star Wars cartoons and sort of a good guy.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Korean War started in 1950. Berlin Airlift 1948. Churchill first used the term Iron Curtain in 1945. Germany pre WW2. The War had definitely already began before 1947. First shooting perhaps not till Korea in 1950; but it’s not like we didn’t already see war coming.
Many European countries had already been physically separated from us pre-1947.
sliders1234
1yr ago
He makes another interesting point about finding value reading the NYT. Is this true? I can’t subscribe because it’s funding the enemy. I feel like most new articles say at Bloomberg I can see the headline and get 95% of the article. X,Y,Z happened. Market zigged. Quite a couple fund managers getting their name in an article.
For something like Ukraine War it seems like the journalists follow the same twitter accounts and then NYT regurgitates the twitter accounts 24 hrs later.
I don’t think I follow a lot of the dunking on people accounts.
I feel like the NYT could be good for like a Doctor whose not always online or needing to dissect information faster but can get a more efficient day or two late news source.
I believe Ukraine admits it’s a war of attrition and they lack the ability to blitzkrieg.
Russia also shows a lot of weakness lately by cutting off gas to Europe. In the short term this is painful to a Europe. In the longer term Europe will find energy solutions (unless Europes just incompetent now). US had an energy crisis in 2008. We invented shale and then become energy independent. The solution to high prices ended up being high prices. Longer term Russian energy isn’t worth it for a marginal costs saving if it’s not reliable or can be used militarily against you.
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