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The stock market doesn't seem to think China will ever take Taiwan.
By many measures, the stock market is valued more richly than at any time in history except 1999 and 1929. Yet a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would cripple the world economy and send stocks plummeting.
There is an argument to be made that any war with China would lead to massive money printing and so, in dollar-denominated terms, stocks could thrive.
But this doesn't explain the stock markets blasé attitude. In the event of a Taiwanese invasion, some companies would be affected more than others. Apple would be crippled by the loss of its supply chain. But oil and steel companies would presumably profit greatly. This is of course not reflected in the stock prices. Apple is worth $3 trillion while U.S. Steel trades at a paltry $8 billion.
Stock markets don't know all that much, that's why volatility exists. There was about a monthlong period where the Chinese locked down 100 million people over a virus and the market was barely affected. It doesn't take a genius to perceive that COVID was a big deal in early 2020, before the March panic.
Nor did it take a genius to perceive that the new AI techniques were a big deal back in 2020 or 2021. The GPT-3 paper was out then, people like Gwern were showing the vast possibilities. And nobody really noticed until ChatGPT several years later when it became blindingly obvious what was going on.
Are you a billionaire?
Because if you knew Covid was a big deal in early 2020 you could have made tens of millions easily. But I am guessing you are not.
So saying “it doesn’t take a genius” when you easily could have made 100x on knowing what to come feels off. If the thing where everything in the past looks like it was obvious but yet almost all very smart people got it wrong.
I am not a billionaire because I did not have high starting capital. And I make mistakes like everyone does, I did not anticipate the massive money-printing resurgence after March and missed out a bit there. You might say 'just use 10x leverage' and I assure you that is the surest route to disaster. There is nothing more dangerous than leverage. Nevertheless, I have made significantly greater returns than the market average. Something like 40-50% annualized? I can't calculate it out properly because I put more money in over time.
In February 2020 we had this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8004055/THE-REUTERS-GRAPHIC-Under-Chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-millions-go.html
But markets didn't react until March! Isn't that insane? China is the factory of the world and they're locking down, where are goods going to come from? What does that say about the rest of the world?
There are loads of smart people who made a tonne of money beating the market. If you're early on the right companies you can make a lot of money. What about the Bitcoin maxis from 2012 or even 2014? They're living in Lambo land right now. I got into crypto much later and still got a couple of 10xes. Or early Nvidia buyers. I bought some Nvidia before ChatGPT and got a 10x there. None of this is terribly hard. There's room for error so long as you work out the broad trends, take things slow and don't leverage up.
I don't understand why AGI-pilled, scaling-pilled people didn't make as much or more than me. I think a lot of people can't be bothered to put in the effort, fill in the forms and stomach that gut feeling of dread when you lose a lot of money.
I'm in a similar boat to you. From my perspective the last 5 years has been the easiest time to significantly beat the market in the last 40 years by a large margin. Events you can see coming from outer space and almost risk free investments that take advantage of them (if you manage small amounts of money).
But knowing events are very likely going to happen and that they'll impact the stock market doesn't equal certainty of how exactly they're going to impact the stock market and for how long. Seeing the way the wind was blowing though? Easy.
Still, my investment portfolio is up some 10x the last 5years from relatively risk free investment after a preceeding period of 10 years where I barely beat the market. It would have been great if I had bought a house after this period and not just right before...
Now things seem more uncertain to me and I'm pivoting to index funds. I don't feel confident making any time sensitive (or even general) predictions.
As for why smart people aren't making (more) money, around me the smartest people have more or less given up on investing. They focus on their career+family and put excess money in some kind of portfolio of different index funds. They were kind similar to me but making slightly better bets but then they checked out before things got predictable.
Now I don't think they particularly care, they have more than enough money to meet all their needs so whether the excess money makes a larger or smaller return is pretty uninteresting. Why not rather focus on that next golf trip?
I have seen similar smug attitudes during COVID, people who raked in cash when stocks plummeted between January and March 2020 by almost 25% were patting themselves on the back how smart they are and laughed at other people. And they knew that the worst is only ahead of us: lockdowns, supply chain issues and all that. Only for the market returning to previous heights by September, followed by huge surge up until January 2022. Many people who doubled down on bearish prediction in March not only lost all their gains from early 2020, but lost everything in that gamble.
Just give me a break, streets are lined up with homeless market gurus like you who just know how to beat the market.
Perhaps I'm being unclear. I'm not claiming to have figured out some grand way to beat the market. I'm claiming that the market has been acting predictably irrationally (or more accurately just very slowly) for the last 5 years in response to major events and that I've made some money making relatively low risk investments with this in mind.
I didn't make one risky bet. I made a series of low risk bets in different directions over a half decade.
Its not like I've made massive amounts either. $40k is now ~$400k, which isn't enough to pay off even half of our remaining mortgage. I'm not getting rich here, especially since don't know where to put my money going forward.
Have I done everything perfectly, obviously not. Just going all in on Nvidia 1.5 years ago would have had better returns than what I've been doing over 5 years, or going all in on Tesla or w/e. I've acted on the same general trends, I've just done so cautiously and ineptly.
The data is pretty clear that almost all day traders (which admittedly encompasses many different kinds of amateur investor) lose money. That’s true whether they’re mere stockpickers or WSB derivatives gamblers, and it’s also true even for well above average high IQ people.
In fact, even many star traders at big funds would struggle on their own without access to the costly and expensive resources (some of it provided in-house, some bought or licensed, processed by teams of analysts for trade suggestions etc) of their employers, simply because they have an information advantage that even a very smart day trader adept at risk taking can’t match.
Another reason some smart people don’t bet like this is that their job prohibits it. Almost every job in finance prohibits personal trading in most or all derivatives, mandates very long minimum holding periods for financial instruments including equities and so on. The requirements are even tighter for the front office jobs that pay the most, including employer and regulator monitoring of all personal financial activity and pre-approval by compliance and reporting of even long term personal trades. If you really plan to hold Apple for 5 years and believe it’ll hugely outperform the market it’s doable, but for most people the compliance hassle isn’t worth it and they just put their money in an index fund.
Refraining from stock picking and market timing as a retail investor because you’ve read the literature and have a deep-seated conviction about markets being pretty much efficient :drake_no:
Refraining from stock picking and market timing as a retail investor because you’re too lazy to deal wtih compliance :drake_yes:
But indeed, it’s unclear if even star traders actually have some skill that allows them to deliver above market returns for their employers or if they’re just lucky, unless the “information advantage” is something insider information-adjacent rather than baller information-processing. And it’s also unclear if alternatives like hedge funds and private equity deliver above market returns adjusted for risk, especially after fees.
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