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Of the major Democratic candidates waiting in the wings, it seems clear that Newsom is the only viable candidate. And if you’re Newsom, why would you possibly replace Biden now?
This is likely the only shot at President the candidate that (theoretically) replaces Biden has. If Trump wins, the loss against such a villain will serve as the ultimate embarrassment and humiliation for the Dem nominee. Even if they argue that it was Biden’s fault, the base is unlikely to buy it and the attack that the candidate “let Trump win” will be difficult to shake off. This is particularly relevant as the white man quotient in the Dem party continues to decline, raising ever more questions about why the party for which only a (shrinking) minority of white men vote and which is predominantly PoC and female should again elect a white male candidate, especially a loser, over a woman and/or minority who doesn’t have the black mark of “letting trump win” on her resume.
The polls are not favorable to the Democratic Party for now. Even though the economy is arguably fine, people don’t believe it’s fine, housing costs are increasingly unaffordable for many people etc. Newsom would find himself running a campaign built around defending the unpopular record of a mediocre president, including possibly an ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah depending on how that pans out by November. If Newsom runs against a Republican President or a Republican candidate after a GOP presidency, he can sell a purely optimistic vision without having to defend Biden’s record (he might have to defend his record in California, but most voters won’t care).
Trump still hasn’t built Trumpism into an actual movement that extends far beyond the personality cult when it comes to generating political figures who can take over his legacy. There are people who believe strongly in MAGA, certainly, but there are no incredible GOP candidates waiting for 2028. The non-Trump primary candidates this year were poor. Carlson probably won’t want to run and in any case still has a certain East Coast boarding school effete intellectual vibe to him, even with the log cabin studio. DeSantis is uncharismatic and greasy. There are options, but none of them seem likely to be close to as popular as Trump - certainly they are unlikely to have his pre-existing celebrity, wealth and talent for self-promotion. It wouldn’t even surprise me to see a Rubio return wrapped in a MAGA package, and that would be pretty dire. Gavin is stupid, but with enough training he would be fine against most likely GOP options in 2028.
The public’s desire for continuity often expires at the 8 year mark (if it does not do so earlier). A Democratic nominee who pulls off an upset and wins this year is going to be campaigning on 12 years of blue government in 2028, a proposal that hasn’t won in 70 years. The glory of a two-term presidency is much more easily attainable after the opposition is in power.
Amusingly, the only scenario in which Newsom would be smart to take over Biden’s candidacy would be if he genuinely believed that Biden was going to win. In that case, the 2028 race would be much harder for a Democratic candidate; Kamala would likely be the default pick for it’s her turn reasons and because Trump would have been safely defeated and probably too old and beleaguered to run again (allowing ideology to take precedence over raw candidate strength) and 16 straight years of Democratic control of the presidency seems very unlikely. If Biden wins, Newsom’s next good opportunity might be 2032 or even 2036, in which case he’d be 77 upon leaving office after 2 terms, and that seems like a slog.
I don't see that Gretch isn't viable for no other reason that she gets home state advantage in a critical swing state. She's charted a decent course as governor, no major disasters.
I still don't think it's likely for anyone to swap in, but conditional on a swap, my money is on Gretch over Gavin.
Non-sequitur, but how fucked is Michigan right now?
The population hasn't grown in 30 years, and the pension crisis looms. The state's premier institution, the University of Michigan, only serves to hoover up any local talent and send it to the coasts. And 90% black Detroit is an absolute anchor around the state's neck.
But what's coming is worse. The Detroit auto industry is about to get obliterated. They have 120 years of expertise in building internal combustion engines. All those factories, all that human capital, is going to zero within 20 years. The Big 3 lose gobs of money on every EV they sell. On a level playing field they simply can't compete with China. Not when Detroit workers make 5x what Chinese workers do and are far inferior. Even with 100% tariffs, it's not clear how Detroit can win.
Swing state, if they have to ban Chinese (or indeed all third world) car imports they will.
Of course, abandoning the “ban all cars that aren’t pure EV” plan will handily accomplish this without the need for tariffs simply because pure EVs are inferior to everything else.
Doesn’t matter, Chinese EVs at $6000 new would still dominate among the bottom 50% of Americans by income when US built cars are $30k+.
If and only if a dealership keeps them in stock and offers financing for those suffering from irregular income and limited credit, that is. And that probably means they're $12k, not six, at a minimum.
The American poor don't know how to order a car from China. They won't sit and wait on one. And they need financing to spend thousands of dollars, even six thousand.
There's ways to do this without a dealership (see Tesla).
It still involves a middleman to make it doable for the American poor, who are broadly not great at planning or coming up with six thousand dollars. That middleman is going to drive costs up because that’s what middlemen do.
Selling the same used car more than once is a lucrative business. Replacing them with electric cars is a risk, albeit one that could easily pay off, but it’s going to double costs to where it’s not actually that much cheaper than used ICE cars(which is what poor people drive today).
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If only the 7500-dollar Elio had not been a scam…
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As one of those sub-normal poors, can confirm I've actually been looking at $5k electric kit cars on Alibaba, but no way I'm pushing that button without a test drive.
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