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PaperclipPerfector  9mo ago (text post)   1580 thread views

Transnational Thursday for August 8, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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A little maneuver warfare, as a treat.

~72 hours ago Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk oblast, and have made it to the town of Sudzha, 10 km from the border. At least two brigades have been committed. Some air defence has also been active in the region, making it challenging for the VKS to operate. It's too early judge what the goal is, and officials have yet to comment. The response from Russian officials won't shock anyone.

Some notable features:

  • Surprise! In the last year plus of fighting both Ukraine and Russia have opted for more dispersed formations, as large masses of men and metal tend to get spotted and shelled pretty quickly. The ubiquity of drone+satellite intel meant that either side getting caught flat footed on the frontline was not on many bingo cards.

  • Despite the manpower disadvantage and shortages Ukraine is still willing to commit men to riskier operations like this.

  • The tempo of Russian assaults in Donbas remains unchanged, for now.

Some thoughts:

With the middle east stealing all the oxygen in the international news room Ukraine has been out of the new cycle for awhile. It's been even longer since it's had a high profile win. So a strong motivator for Ukrainian strategists is likely to be to get some positive press and a morale boost.

Life or deathpromotion for Gerasimov? Russia probably shouldn't haven't been caught off guard. I find it increasingly likely that like Shoigu before him, Gerasimov will be promoted into a position where he remains close to Putin, but his incompetency can do the least harm. And someone less-loyal-but-more-competent will be found to fill his shoes.

Implicit in all the supportive arguments about the incursion is the assumption that the Ukrainian forces cannot break through the enemy defenses anywhere inside official Ukrainian territory, or that they shouldn't try it because it'd be wasteful or something. After all the Atlanticist propaganda I've read about the orc hordes in the last two years, this just strikes me as 100% pathetic.

If the Ukrainians believe there's currently more tactical/strategic value in making this incursion than using the same resources elsewhere, as there very well may be, then there's nothing odd about them making this incursion.

eh, objective / subjctive, if you believe that aliens are going to ascend you to the next plane of existence it's not odd to eat the phenobarbital laced apple sauce as their comet reaches it's closest approach to Earth. Still odd af to everyone else.

From what we've seen of the war lately the Donetsk situation is a huge mess, they've been begging for reinforcements for months. Russia is entering Toretsk, captured most of Niu York, and has pushed through all but one defensive line between them and pokrovsk. Which is the main logistical hub for the entire region. Not even western analysts have been able to make sense of this border raid. Russia can just use conscripts to defend their own soil so it's unlikely to pull troops out of Donetsk. To use it as a bargaining chip they have to actually hold it, which considering they can't hold fortifications that have been built up over years seems unlikely given they will have to defend villages without those fortifications and with less established supply lanes, air defense issues etc. Capturing and sabotaging a Russian nuclear plant to create an environmental disaster just makes them look insane to the rest of the world.

Only explanation that makes some sense to me is that this is a Bibi situation, they are getting pressure to tie things up or at least begin winding down before the November elections and are spending 5k+ lives to escalate things and keep the war hot.

Russia can just use conscripts to defend their own soil

we will see whether this will work out

so far it featured one of deadliest strikes in this war, with one of columns massacred

What's pathetic? Not attacking where the enemy is strong, and instead attacking where he is weak?

What is pathetic is that the same people are praising this incursion as a good idea who have been trying to convince everyone for many months that the war will definitely be won in a short time by the Ukrainians liberating all their territories by force, without negotiating anything with the orc vermin, advancing to their post-1954 borders.

What is pathetic is that the same people are praising this incursion as a good idea who have been trying to convince everyone for many months that the war will definitely be won in a short time

this sets are not the same

and in category "who can find more egregious bad takes" side that can use Russian MoD official statements is likely to win

and if anyone claims that this "war will definitely be won in a short time" then they should be ignored as stupid and/or propagandist

I'm not following. Should they not support the incursion? Would that be less pathetic? If not, it sounds like you just don't like the rah-rah propaganda, which is understandable, but I don't see how it's relevant to the current developments.

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